Compilation and Discussion of Trends in Severe Storms in the United States: Popular Perception v. Climate Reality

The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and increase in near-surface air temperatures may have an impact on severe weather events in the United States. Output from some numerical modeling simulations suggests that the atmosphere over mid-latitude land areas could become more unstable in the future thereby supporting an increase in convective activity. However, despite the numerical simulation results, empiricists have been unable generally to identify significant increases in overall severe storm activity as measured in the magnitude and/or frequency of thunderstorms, hail events, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter storm activity across the United States. There is evidence that heavy precipitation events have increased during the period of historical records, but for many other severe weather categories, the trends have been downward over the past half century. Damage from severe weather has increased over this period, but this upward trend disappears when inflation, population growth, population redistribution, and wealth are taken into account.     

CONSTABLE: A SIMPLE ONE-DIMENSIONAL CLIMATE MODEL FOR CLIMATOLOGISTS IN GEOGRAPHY

A one-dimensional global climate model is constructed from both the basic energy balance equation for the earth-atmosphere system and the planetary boundary layer equations of motion. The theoretically based model accurately simulates many features of the present climate system and appears useful in evaluating various climatic change mechanisms. The simplicity of this process-response model increases its educational and research applicability for climatologists in geography.     

IMPACTS OF NUCLEAR WAR: RESULTS FROM AN ENERGY BALANCE GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL

We use a one-dimensional energy balance global climate model to assess the climatic impacts of various nuclear war scenarios. Our results suggest that mean annual surface temperatures, especially within the war zone, may decrease sharply. Perturbations in the atmospheric circulation system substantially change the distribution and size of the various global heat exchanges.     

Analysis of tropical cyclone intensification trends and variability in the North Atlantic Basin over the period 1970–2003

Summary Over the past three decades, the sea-surface temperatures of the lower latitudes of the North Atlantic basin have increased while the lower-tropospheric temperatures show no upward trend. This differential warming of the atmosphere may have a destabilizing effect that could influence the development and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). In this investigation, we find that in general, TC intensification (a) is higher during the daytime period and during the later months of the storm season, (b) tends to be higher in the western portion of the North Atlantic basin, and (c) is not explained by current month or antecedent SSTs. Any changes associated with warming of the surface compared to a smaller temperature rise in the lower-troposphere (and resultant changes in atmospheric stability) have not produced detectable impacts on intensification rates of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin.