Vertical equilibrium with sub-scale analytical methods for geological CO2 sequestration

Large-scale implementation of geological CO₂ sequestration requires quantification of risk and leakage potential. One potentially important leakage pathway for the injected CO₂ involves existing oil and gas wells. Wells are particularly important in North America, where more than a century of drilling has created millions of oil and gas wells. Models of CO₂ injection and leakage will involve large uncertainties in parameters associated with wells, and therefore a probabilistic framework is required. These models must be able to capture both the large-scale CO₂ plume associated with the injection and the small-scale leakage problem associated with localized flow along wells. Within a typical simulation domain, many hundreds of wells may exist. One effective modeling strategy combines both numerical and analytical models with a specific set of simplifying assumptions to produce an efficient numerical–analytical hybrid model. The model solves a set of governing equations derived by vertical averaging with assumptions of a macroscopic sharp interface and vertical equilibrium. These equations are solved numerically on a relatively coarse grid, with an analytical model embedded to solve for wellbore flow occurring at the sub-gridblock scale. This vertical equilibrium with sub-scale analytical method (VESA) combines the flexibility of a numerical method, allowing for heterogeneous and geologically complex systems, with the efficiency and accuracy of an analytical method, thereby eliminating expensive grid refinement for sub-scale features. Through a series of benchmark problems, we show that VESA compares well with traditional numerical simulations and to a semi-analytical model which applies to appropriately simple systems. We believe that the VESA model provides the necessary accuracy and efficiency for applications of risk analysis in many CO₂ sequestration problems.     

Marine sediment contamination of an industrial site at Port of Bagnoli, Gulf of Naples, Southern Italy

For almost one century an important steel plant has been active at the Bagnoli industrial area (Naples, Southern Italy). The environmental survey of near shore and offshore sediments has been carried out as fundamental part of a clean up project. The characteristics of the area, supposed type of pollution, national and international protocols in force were taken into consideration in designing sampling schemes and selecting analytical parameters. For this work, sediment grain size, PAHs, PCBs, trace elements, total hydrocarbons and organic matter were considered. Factor analysis evidenced two main types of pollution in the proximity of the industrial plant, both probably attributable to the activity of the industrial site. The first one, due to Cd, Pb, Zn and Mn seems determined by localised activities at the southern part of the plant. The second one, due to Fe and Mn, appears directly linked to the whole contaminated area.     

Evaluation of the health risk from water contamination in the city of Tandil, Argentina

The paper focuses on the concentration of nitrates detected in superficial waters (lake and streams) and groundwater (wells) used as sources of water supply. It attempts to determine the level of risk due to the presence of urban industrial uses and correlate it with the quality of urban life, in order to determine social vulnerability to the risk of industrial contamination. A geographic information system (GIS) was constructed with layers for various census data, topographic and landuse features and the location of water samples. An index of quality of life was developed using selected variables. This was then compared to the essential services provision data and the results of the water sample analyses. The concentration of nitrates (mg/l or ppm) in the water samples was determined. These values were translated into maps of contaminants, which were then correlated with their possible sources and with the quality of life of the population affected. The concentration of nitrates in wells has been considered alarming, but more concern has been expressed about concentrations in the public water supply network. Spatial correlation between areas with high risk of contaminated water and areas with the worst quality of life, indicates the importance of controlling chemical contamination, and demands improvements in the public water supply network and revision of the theory of social vulnerability.     

Regional modeling of climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and ecosystems in Central America

Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research.     

Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale

The impacts of climate change exacerbate the myriad challenges faced by smallholder farmers in the Tropics. In many of these same regions, there is a lack of current, consistent, and spatially-explicit data, which severely limits the ability to locate smallholder communities, map their adaptive capacity, and target adaptation measures to these communities. To explore the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in three data-poor countries in Central America, we leveraged expert input through in-depth mapping interviews to locate agricultural landscapes, identify smallholder farming systems within them, and characterize different components of farmer adaptive capacity. We also used this input to generate an index of adaptive capacity that allows for comparison across countries and farming systems. Here, we present an overview of the expert method used, followed by an examination of our results, including the intercountry variation in expert knowledge and the characterization of adaptive capacity for both subsistence and smallholder coffee farmers. While this approach does not replace the need to collect regular and consistent data on farming systems (e.g. agricultural census), our study demonstrates a rapid assessment approach for using expert input to fill key data gaps, enable trans-boundary comparisons, and to facilitate the identification of the most vulnerable smallholder communities for adaptation planning in data-poor environments that are typical of tropical regions. One potential benefit from incorporating this approach is that it facilitates the systematic consideration of field-based and regional experience into assessments of adaptive capacity, contributing to the relevance and utility of adaptation plans.     

Methylmercury Bioaccumulation in an Urban Estuary: Delaware River,USA

Spatial variation in mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in urban coastal watersheds reflects complex interactions between Hg sources, land use, and environmental gradients. We examined MeHg concentrations in fauna from the Delaware River estuary, and related these measurements to environmental parameters and human impacts on the waterway. The sampling sites followed a north to south gradient of increasing salinity, decreasing urban influence, and increasing marsh cover. Although mean total Hg in surface sediments (top 4 cm) peaked in the urban estuarine turbidity maximum and generally decreased downstream, surface sediment MeHg concentrations showed no spatial patterns consistent with the examined environmental gradients, indicating urban influence on Hg loading to the sediment but not subsequent methylation. Surface water particulate MeHg concentration showed a positive correlation with marsh cover whereas dissolved MeHg concentrations were slightly elevated in the estuarine turbidity maximum region. Spatial patterns of MeHg bioaccumulation in resident fauna varied across taxa. Small fish showed increased MeHg concentrations in the more urban/industrial sites upstream, with concentrations generally decreasing farther downstream. Invertebrates either showed no clear spatial patterns in MeHg concentrations (blue crabs, fiddler crabs) or increasing concentrations further downstream (grass shrimp). Best-supported linear mixed models relating tissue concentration to environmental variables reflected these complex patterns, with species specific model results dominated by random site effects with a combination of particulate MeHg and landscape variables influencing bioaccumulation in some species. The data strengthen accumulating evidence that bioaccumulation in estuaries can be decoupled from sediment MeHg concentration, and that drivers of MeHg production and fate may vary within a small region.     

Comparison of climatic threshold of geographical distribution between dominant plants and surface pollen in China

The geographical distribution of dominant plant species in China was georeferenced and climatic variables were interpolated into all grids.Accordingly,the percentage distributions of principal pollen taxa based on 1860 surface pollen sites in China were selected and the related climate values were interpolated with the same method. The geographical and climatic comparison between the two data-sets indicated that the climate threshold of most pollen taxa from surface pollen is coherent with plant distributions. The climatic envelopes of dominant plant are mostly accordant with those of pollen taxa at certain levels. However, some distinct offsets of the climate ranges exist between the two datasets for most pollen taxa identified at family level, such as Ericaceae,Asteraceae, Poaceae and Chenopodiaceae. The present study provides for the first time rich information on temperature and precipitation in relation to pollen and plant distribution based on the datasets on a continental scale useful for global ecological modeling and Quaternary palaeoclimate reconstruction.     

Intraspecific diet shift in Talitrus saltator inhabiting exposed sandy beaches

Talitrid amphipods are the most abundant herbivores on exposed sandy beaches. Despite their important role as trophic intermediates between macrophytes and higher levels (i.e. insect and bird) of beach food webs, very little information is available on their feeding patterns. The main aim of this study was to investigate intraspecific differences in the feeding behaviour of Talitrus saltator. We tested the hypotheses that: (1) adult females and males showed different isotope signatures and therefore relied on different sources of food; and (2) patterns of variation of isotope signatures of juveniles differed from those of adult specimens, evidencing a diet shift during the development. We used stable isotope signatures and tested for differences upon the level on the shore, times of the year and beaches experiencing similar morpho-dynamic and environmental conditions. Finally, we investigated the trophic significance of macrophyte detritus in the diet of males, females and juveniles. Results showed that adult males had a more variable diet than females and juveniles (inferred from δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values). Dual-isotope graphs suggested that Sargassum muticum and Cystoseira baccata wrack could be among the main food sources for both juvenile and adult stage.     

Vertical zonation and distributions of calanoid copepods through the lower oxycline of the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone

This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of calanoid copepod vertical zonation and community structure at midwater depths (300–1000 m) through the lower oxygen gradient (oxycline) (0.02 to 0.3 ml/L) of an oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). Feeding ecology was also analyzed. Zooplankton were collected with a double 1 m² MOCNESS plankton net in day and night vertically-stratified oblique tows from 1000 m to the surface at six stations during four seasons as part of the 1995 US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) Arabian Sea project. The geographic comparison between a eutrophic more oxygenated onshore station and an offshore station with a strong OMZ served as a natural experiment to elucidate the influence of depth, oxygen concentration, season, food resources, and predators on the copepod distributions.Copepod species and species assemblages of the Arabian Sea OMZ differed in their spatial and vertical distributions relative to environmental and ecological characteristics of the water column and region. The extent and intensity of the oxycline at the lower boundary of the OMZ, and its spatial and temporal variability over the year of sampling, was an important factor affecting distributional patterns. Calanoid copepod species showed vertical zonation through the lower OMZ oxycline. Clustering analyses defined sample groups with similar copepod assemblages and species groups with similar distributions. No apparent diel vertical migration for either calanoid or non-calanoid copepods at these midwater depths was observed, but some species had age-related differences in vertical distributions. Subzones of the OMZ, termed the OMZ Core, the Lower Oxycline, and the Sub-Oxycline, had different copepod communities and ecological interactions. Major distributional and ecological changes were associated with surprisingly small oxygen gradients at low oxygen concentrations. The calanoid copepod community was most diverse in the most oxygenated environments (oxygen >0.14 ml/L), but the rank order of abundance of species was similar in the Lower Oxycline and Sub-Oxycline. Some species were absent or much scarcer in the OMZ Core. Two copepod species common in the Lower Oxycline were primarily detritivorous but showed dietary differences suggesting feeding specialization. The copepod Spinocalanus antarcticus fed primarily on components of the vertical particulate flux and suspended material, a less versatile diet than the co-occurring copepod Lucicutia grandis. Vertical zonation of copepod species through the lower OMZ oxycline is probably a complex interplay between physiological limitation by low oxygen, potential predator control, and potential food resources. Pelagic OMZ and oxycline communities, and their ecological interactions in the water column and with the benthos, may become even more widespread and significant in the future ocean, if global warming increases the extent and intensity of OMZs as predicted.