Five-year bio-monitoring of aquatic ecosystems near Artigas Antarctic Scientific Base,King George Island

Fildes Peninsula, in King George Island, Antarctica, has a great concentration of international facilities, and it has clearly been affected by human activities. The objective of this 5-year study was ...     

Molecular line intensities as measures of cloud masses – I. Sensitivity of CO emissions to physical parameter variations

A reliable estimate of the molecular gas content in galaxies plays a crucial role in determining their dynamical and star-forming properties. However, H₂, the dominant molecular species, is difficult to observe directly, particularly in the regions where most molecular gas is thought to reside. Its mass is therefore commonly inferred by assuming a direct proportionality with the integrated intensity of the  ¹²CO( J = 1 → 0)  emission line, using a CO-to-H₂ conversion factor, X . Although a canonical value for X is used extensively in such estimates, there is increasing evidence, both theoretical and observational, that the conversion factor may vary by over an order of magnitude under conditions different from those of the local neighbourhood. In an effort to understand the influence of changing environmental conditions on the conversion factor, we derive theoretical estimates of X for a wide range of physical parameters using a photon-dominated region (PDR) time-dependent chemical model, benchmarking key results against those of an independent PDR code to ensure reliability. Based on these results, the sensitivity of the X factor to change in each physical parameter is interpreted in terms of the chemistry and physical processes within the cloud. In addition to confirming previous observationally derived trends, we find that the time-dependence of the chemistry, often neglected in such models, has a considerable influence on the value of the conversion factor.     

A simple model of hillslope response for overland flow generation

This paper deals with the derivation of the hydrological response of a hillslope on the assumption of quick runoff by surface runoff generation. By using the simple non‐linear storage based model, first proposed by Horton, an analytical solution of the overland flow equations over a plane hillslope was derived. This solution establishes a generalization for different flow regimes of Horton's original solution, which is valid for the transitional flow regime only. The solution proposed was compared successfully with that of Horton and, for the turbulent flow regime, to the one derived from kinematic wave theory. This solution can be applied easily to both stationary and non‐stationary rainfall excess events. An analytical solution for the instantaneous response function (IRF) was also derived. Finally, simple expressions to compute peak and time to peak of IRF are proposed. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The formation and survival of discs in a ΛCDM universe

We study the formation of galaxies in a Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) universe using high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations with a multiphase treatment of gas, cooling and feedback, focusing on the formation of discs. Our simulations follow eight isolated haloes similar in mass to the Milky Way and extracted from a large cosmological simulation without restriction on spin parameter or merger history. This allows us to investigate how the final properties of the simulated galaxies correlate with the formation histories of their haloes. We find that, at   z = 0  , none of our galaxies contains a disc with more than 20 per cent of its total stellar mass. Four of the eight galaxies nevertheless have well-formed disc components, three have dominant spheroids and very small discs, and one is a spheroidal galaxy with no disc at all. The   z = 0  spheroids are made of old stars, while discs are younger and formed from the inside-out. Neither the existence of a disc at   z = 0  nor the final disc-to-total mass ratio seems to depend on the spin parameter of the halo. Discs are formed in haloes with spin parameters as low as 0.01 and as high as 0.05; galaxies with little or no disc component span the same range in spin parameter. Except for one of the simulated galaxies, all have significant discs at   z ≳ 2  , regardless of their   z = 0  morphologies. Major mergers and instabilities which arise when accreting cold gas is misaligned with the stellar disc trigger a transfer of mass from the discs to the spheroids. In some cases, discs are destroyed, while in others, they survive or reform. This suggests that the survival probability of discs depends on the particular formation history of each galaxy. A realistic ΛCDM model will clearly require weaker star formation at high redshift and later disc assembly than occurs in our models.     

The effect of chlorite interlayering on <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar–<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar biotite dating: an <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar–<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar laser-probe and TEM investigations of variably chloritised biotites

Biotite is one of the most common minerals dated by the ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar method. It frequently shows K contents below the expected stoichiometric value, suggesting the presence of low-K impurities. The most common low-K alteration product of biotite is chlorite. Therefore, it is important to understand the effects of chlorite interlayering on ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages in order to correctly interpret ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar data. This study examines the outcome of ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dating analyses on variably chloritised biotites from Ordovician intrusive rocks. The infrared (IR) laser-probe technique and different gas extraction methods were adopted. Incremental laser-heating data on bulk samples yielded hump-shaped age profiles with meaningless young and old age steps. Both the extent of anomalous old age steps and the degree of discordance of the age spectra were much more pronounced in the more chloritised biotite samples. In contrast, in situ data on rock chips and total-fusion ages on single biotite flakes yielded ages concordant with, or younger than, the inferred emplacement ages. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) was used to texturally characterise biotite samples at the nanometre scale. It was also used to document the complex decomposition-transformation process affecting interlayered biotite–chlorite during in-vacuo IR-laser heating to temperatures ranging from ~600 to >1,000 °C. TEM results suggest that hump-shaped age profiles result from an interplay between ³⁹Ar_K redistribution by recoil during sample irradiation and differential release of argon isotopes hosted in three main reservoirs. These reservoirs are (from least to most retentive): extended defects, chlorite and biotite. The final descending age segment is attributed to the progressive release of argon with increasing temperature from large biotite domains for which ³⁹Ar_K recoil loss was less important. ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar data support previous findings, which suggest that ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages when recoil effects are minimised, provide minimum estimates that approach the true biotite age, when the pristine domains are analysed. The most effective approach for obtaining meaningful ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages was using individual total-fusion analyses on carefully selected, single flakes previously split along the basal cleavage by wet-grinding and corresponding to a sample mass of a few micrograms.Editorial responsibility: I Parsons     

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

The new national climate change documents of Mexico: what do the regional climate change scenarios represent?

This paper presents a review of the methodology applied for generating the regional climate change scenarios utilized in important National Documents of Mexico, such as the Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Fourth National Report to the Convention on Biological Diversity and The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico. It is shown that these regional climate change scenarios, which are one of the main inputs to support the assessments presented in these documents, are an example of the erroneous use of statistical downscaling techniques. The arguments presented here imply that the work based on such scenarios should be revised and therefore, these documents are inadequate for supporting national decision- making.     

Identification of calanco,a badland landform in the northern Apennines,Italy

Calanco (plural, calanchi) is a term widely used in the northern Apennines, Italy, to define a type of badland formed in clayey bedrock. However, no precise geomorphological definition of calanco has been established and a variety of map symbols are used to indicate the presence of calanco landforms. With the aim of developing an improved approach to identifying calanchi, a group of experienced surveyors identified 24 catchments with calanco characteristics among 67 catchments located between Bologna and Faenza in the northern Apennines. The morphology of each catchment was classified using traditional quantitative geomorphic approaches including fieldwork, map interpretation, hypsometric curve construction and computation of the annual sediment yield. Consideration of the parameters produced by these approaches indicated that none was capable of representing the presence of calanchi unequivocally and the basins were grouped into five classes on the basis of number and type of calanco criteria that they met. A characteristic of calanchi that is evident on topographic maps is crenulation of the contour lines and in this study a new topographic parameter was developed to represent the degree of contour crenulation. This parameter, LO/LF, is defined as the ratio of the actual length of a contour line (LO) to the length of the same line smoothed by an algorithm based on a moving average (LF). Calculated values of LO/LF ranged from 1·05 to 1·38. To test whether high values of the contour crenulation parameter were associated with calanchi, LO/LF values were added to other criteria for the five classes of catchment. Class 1 catchments, consisting of 14 of the 24 calanchi catchments identified in the field, displayed all of the criteria defining calanchi, and were characterized by the highest values of LO/LF (mean value 1·27 ± 0·15). It is proposed, therefore, that the contour crenulation ratio (LO/LF) may be useful in identifying the calanco landform. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.