Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

Seasonal variation of eddy shedding from the Kuroshio intrusion in the Luzon Strait

Altimeter data and output from the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model global assimilation run are used to study the seasonal variation of eddy shedding from the Kuroshio intrusion in the Luzon Strait. The results suggest that most eddy shedding events occur from December through March, and no eddy shedding event occurs in June, September, or October. About a month before eddy shedding, the Kuroshio intrusion extends into the South China Sea and a closed anticyclonic eddy appears inside the Kuroshio loop which then detaches from the Kuroshio intrusion. Anticyclonic eddies detached from December through February move westward at a speed of about 0.1 m s⁻¹ after shedding, whereas eddies detached in other months either stay at the place of origin or move westward at a very slow speed (less than 0.06 m s⁻¹). The HYCOM outputs and QuikSCAT wind data clearly show that the seasonal variation of eddy shedding is influenced by the monsoon winds. A comparison between eddy volume and integrated Ekman transport indicates that, once the integrated Ekman transport exceeds 2 × 10¹² m³ (which roughly corresponds to the volume of an eddy), the Kuroshio intrusion expands and an eddy shedding event occurs within 1 month. We infer that the Ekman drift of the northeasterly monsoon pushes the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS, creates a net westward transport into the Strait, and leads to an eddy detachment from the Kuroshio.     

Roles of Biogeochemical Processes in the Oceanic Carbon Cycle Described with a Simple Coupled Physical-Biogeochemical Model

To evaluate the contribution of biogeochemical processes to the oceanic carbon cycle and to calculate the ratio of calcium carbonate to organic carbon downward export, we have incorporated biological and alkalinity pumps in the yoked high-latitude exchange/interior diffusion-advection (YOLDA) model. The biogeochemical processes are represented by four parameters. The values of the parameters are tuned so that the model can reproduce the observed phosphate and alkalinity distributions in each oceanic region. The sensitivity of the model to the biogeochemical parameters shows that biological production rates in the euphotic zone and decomposition depths of particulate matters significantly influence horizontal and vertical distributions of biogeochemical substances. The modeled vertical fluxes of particulate organic phosphorus and calcium carbonate are converted to vertical carbon fluxes by the biological pump and the alkalinity pump, respectively. The downward carbon flux from the surface layer to the deep layer in the entire region is estimated to be 3.36 PgC/yr, which consists of 2.93 PgC/yr from the biological pump and 0.43 PgC/yr from the alkalinity pump, which is consistent with previous studies. The modeled rain ratio is higher with depth and higher in the Pacific and Indian Oceans than in the Atlantic Ocean. The global rain ratio at the surface layer is calculated to be 0.14 to 0.15. This value lies between the lower and higher ends of the previous estimates, which range widely from 0.05 to 0.25. This study indicates that the rain ratio is unlikely to be higher than 0.15, at least in the surface waters.     

Analysis of seafloor backscatter strength dependence on the survey azimuth using multibeam echosounder data

The sediment backscatter strength measured by multibeam echosounders is a key feature for seafloor mapping either qualitative (image mosaics) or quantitative (extraction of classifying features). An important phenomenon, often underestimated, is the dependence of the backscatter level on the azimuth angle imposed by the survey line directions: strong level differences at varying azimuth can be observed in case of organized roughness of the seabed, usually caused by tide currents over sandy sediments. This paper presents a number of experimental results obtained from shallow-water cruises using a 300-kHz multibeam echosounder and specially dedicated to the study of this azimuthal effect, with a specific configuration of the survey strategy involving a systematic coverage of reference areas following “compass rose” patterns. The results show for some areas a very strong dependence of the backscatter level, up to about 10-dB differences at intermediate oblique angles, although the presence of these ripples cannot be observed directly—neither from the bathymetry data nor from the sonar image, due to the insufficient resolution capability of the sonar. An elementary modeling of backscattering from rippled interfaces explains and comforts these observations. The consequences of this backscatter dependence upon survey azimuth on the current strategies of backscatter data acquisition and exploitation are discussed.     

Characterization of Frequency and Aggregation of the Antarctic Krill (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Euphausia superba</Emphasis>) Using Acoustics

In this study, the dB difference and characteristics of krill swarms inhabiting Subarea 48.1, which includes the west and south of the South Shetland Island and the Elephant Island peripheries, were estimated to distinguish Antarctic krill, using acoustics. From April 13 to 24, 2016, acoustic data were collected along 24 survey lines using the frequencies 38 and 120 kHz, and middle trawling was performed at 7 stations. Using the difference between the dB values of two volume backscattering strength (Sv) frequencies (38 and 120 kHz), a clear acoustic distinction could be made between Antarctic krill (4.9 to 12.0 dB) and fish (?4.0 to ?0.2 dB). The distributions and mean Sv of krill swarms in the Elephant Island peripheries and south of South Shetland Island were higher than those in the west of South Shetland Island. The mean length/ height ratio of krill swarms in the west of the South Shetland Island (64.5) was higher than that in the south (35.9) and the Elephant Island peripheries (33.8), with the length of the aggregations exceeding their height. Most krill swarms were distributed between the surface layer (less than 10 m below sea level) and within 200 m of water depth. These results are expected to serve as baseline data for evaluating krill density and biomass by distinguishing them from fish, using acoustics.     

Fishery-induced Inter-annual Changes in the Mean Trophic Level,the Northern Sea of Oman off the Iranian Coast, 2002–2011

Ecosystem-based management is one of the most important approaches that may lead to reducing the impacts of fishing on ecosystems. In this context, we have assessed the impact of Iranian coastal fishing (using landing data of 49 exploited species) on the ecosystem of the North Sea of Oman (Sistan and Baluchestan Province), during the last decade (2002–2011), with emphasis on testing the occurrence of the “fishing down? phenomenon. The Mean Trophic Level (MTL) and Fishing-in-Balance (FiB) index are two indicators that we used for analysis. The data indicated that the increased total landings in this region might be related to the exploitation of marine fishery resources especially with regard to large pelagic fish. Over the past decade, moderate decreasing trends in MTL and an increasing trend in the FiB-index were observed. In this regard, an upward trend in the spatial expansion factor and also a downward trend in the piscivory index and in Primary Production Required (PPR) in the time period could all indicate a spatial expansion toward deep waters, the catching of the large pelagic piscivorous species, such as tuna, and a sign of fishing pressures on the ecosystem. The results suggest a range of fishery exploitation patterns throughout the food web but it seems that these patterns are not a consequence of ?fishing down?. We suggest that the monitoring research be continued in this region and these indicators should be used to make fisheries management decisions and to prevent the continuance of this trend in future.     

Evaluating coastal scenery using fuzzy logic: Application at selected sites in Western Black Sea coastal region of Turkey

Coastal areas of the world are under treat due to the conflicting requirements of functions such as habitation and/or recreation, which affect the strategic asset of coastal scenery itself. Coastal managers, together with planners, need coastal landscape inventories, where the quality of coastal scenery is a part of the inventory. In order to provide an evidence-based approach for sound coastal management decisions, [Ergin et al., 2004] and [Ergin et al., 2006] developed a novel technique ‘coastal scenic evaluation’ (CSE), which addresses the evaluation of coastal scenery. The CSE technique utilizes fuzzy logic to derive values obtained from a checklist of 26 physical and human parameters. The methodology enables the calculation of an evaluation index (D), which categorizes the scenic values of coastal sites into five distinct classes. Using this technique, coastal scenic evaluations were carried out at 34 selected sites on the Western Black Sea coast of Turkey. Based on the calculated D values, a five-class differentiation was obtained for the selected sites, to provide baseline information for any envisaged subsequent management plans for these areas.     

Long term evolution of distant retrograde orbits in the Earth-Moon system

This work studies the evolution of several Distant Retrograde Orbits (DROs) of varying size in the Earth-Moon system over durations up to tens of millennia. This analysis is relevant for missions requiring a completely hands off, long duration quarantine orbit, such as a Mars Sample Return mission or the Asteroid Redirect Mission. Four DROs are selected from four stable size regions and are propagated for up to 30,000 years with an integrator that uses extended precision arithmetic techniques and a high fidelity dynamical model. The evolution of the orbit’s size, shape, orientation, period, out-of-plane amplitude, and Jacobi constant are tracked. It has been found that small DROs, with minor axis amplitudes of approximately 45,000 km or less decay in size and period largely due to the Moon’s solid tides. Larger DROs (62,000 km and up) are more influenced by the gravity of bodies external to the Earth-Moon system, and remain bound to the Moon for significantly less time.     

Impacts of mariculture practices on the temporal distribution of macrobenthos in Sandu Bay,South China

Sandu Bay is located in the East China Sea and is characterized by high-density fish farming and kelp culture. Despite this, little is known about the impacts of these different mariculture practices on the local environment. We investigated the temporal variation in macrobenthos and environmental conditions at three sites in the bay (fish farming site, kelp culture site, and a control site). We collected water and sediment samples during nine cruises between May 2009 and February 2010. The density of macrobenthos peaked at the fish farming site in July (655 ind./m2) whereas density did not fluctuate as widely at the other two sites. Biomass varied significantly at both the control and kelp culture sites, but had only a single peak at the fish farming site in June (21.90 g/m2). The dominant species varied throughout the study period at the control and kelp culture sites, whereas a single terebellid species (Lysilla pacifica) dominated the macrobenthos at the fish farming site. The diversity index H’ increased at the control site beginning in February then decreased after May, whereas H’ was low at the other sites in December. The mean dissolved oxygen level was highest at the control site (6.59 mg/L) and lowest at the fish farming site (5.54 mg/L). DO levels were lowest at all sites in summer (July and August). The sediment acid volatile sulfide content was higher at the fish farming site (1.46 mg/g dry weight) than those at the kelp culture and control sites (1.22 and 0.14 mg/g, respectively). Our results suggest that mariculture practices have a clear impact on the benthic environment/ community in Sandu Bay.