Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projected wheat yield changes under climate change in eastern Australia

Future climate projections and impact analyses are pivotal to evaluate the potential change in crop yield under climate change. Impact assessment of climate change is also essential to prepare and implement adaptation measures for farmers and policymakers. However, there are uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment when combining crop models and climate models under different emission scenarios. This study quantifies the various sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change effects on wheat productivity at six representative sites covering dry and wet environments in Australia based on 12 soil types and 12 nitrogen application rates using one crop model driven by 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at near future period 2021–2060 and far future period 2061–2100. We used the analysis of variance (ANOVA) to quantify the sources of uncertainty in wheat yield change. Our results indicated that GCM uncertainty largely dominated over RCPs, nitrogen rates, and soils for the projections of wheat yield at drier locations. However, at wetter sites, the largest share of uncertainty was nitrogen, followed by GCMs, soils, and RCPs. In addition, the soil types at two northern sites in the study area had greater effects on yield change uncertainty probably due to the interaction effect of seasonal rainfall and soil water storage capacity. We concluded that the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources are dependent on climatic location. Understanding the share of uncertainty in climate impact assessment is important for model choice and will provide a basis for producing more reliable impact assessment.     

Postglacial fire, vegetation, and climate history in the Clearwater Range, Northern Idaho, USA

The environmental history of the Northern Rocky Mountains was reconstructed using lake sediments from Burnt Knob Lake, Idaho, and comparing the results with those from other previously published sites in the region to understand how vegetation and fire regimes responded to large-scale climate changes during the Holocene. Vegetation reconstructions indicate parkland or alpine meadow at the end of the glacial period indicating cold-dry conditions. From 14,000 to 12,000 cal yr B.P., abundant Pinus pollen suggests warmer, moister conditions than the previous period. Most sites record the development of a forest with Pseudotsuga ca. 9500 cal yr B.P. indicating warm dry climate coincident with the summer insolation maximum. As the amplification of the seasonal cycle of insolation waned during the middle Holocene, Pseudotsuga was replaced by Pinus and Abies suggesting cool, moist conditions. The fire reconstructions show less synchroneity. In general, the sites west of the continental divide display a fire-frequency maximum around 12,000–8000 cal yr B.P., which coincides with the interval of high summer insolation and stronger-than-present subtropical high. The sites on the east side of the continental divide have the highest fire frequency ca. 6000–3500 cal yr B.P. and may be responding to a decrease in summer precipitation as monsoonal circulation weakened in the middle and late Holocene. This study demonstrated that the fire frequency of the last two decades does not exceed the historical range of variability in that periods of even higher-than-present fire frequency occurred in the past.     

Relating spatial and temporal variability in sediment chlorophylla and carbohydrate distribution with erodibility of a tidal flat

Trends in the spatial distribution of chlorophylla (chla) and colloidal and total carbohydrates on the Molenplaat tidal flat in the Westerschelde estuary, Netherlands, reflected spatial differences in physical properties of the sediment. Results from a Spearman Rank Order Correlation indicated that many of the physical and biological measures covaried. Multiple regression analyses describing the relationship between colloidal carbohydrates and sediment properties resulted in several highly significant equations, although in all cases chla was able to predict colloidal carbohydrate content. Relationships between sediment surface chla and colloidal carbohydrate, and sediment erodibility (i.e., critical erosion threshold, U_crit, and mass of sediment eroded at a velocity of 30 cm s^?1) determined in annular flume experiments were examined. Overall sediment erodibility was lowest (i.e., high thresholds, low mass eroded) for the siltiest sediments in June 1996 when chla and colloidal carbohydrates were high (56.9 μg gDW^?1 and 320.6 μg gluc.equ. gDW^?1, respectively), and greatest (i.e., low thresholds, high mass eroded) at the sandier sediments in September 1996, when chla and colloidal carbohydrates were low (1.0 μg gDW^?1 and 5.7 μg gluc.equ. gDW^?1, respectively). When sediments were grouped according to relative silt content, the most significant relationships were found in muddy sand with a finegrained fraction (<63 μm) of 25–50%. Thresholds of erosion increased, while mass of sediment eroded decreased, with increasing chla and colloidal carbohydrate. A similar trend was observed for the sand-muddy sand (63 μm 10–25%). In the sand (63 μm 0–10%), there were no relationships for U_crit, whereas mass eroded appeared to increase with increasing chla and colloidal carbohydrate. The increased carbohydrate may stick sand grains together, altering the nature of erosion from rolling grains to clumps of resuspension.     

Unique monooxygenation pattern indicates novel flavin-containing monooxygenase in liver of rainbow trout

Vertebrate flavin-containing monooxygenases (FMOs) have only been isolated from mammalian organisms. However, many FMO substrates include pesticides which may adversely affect fish and other aquatic organisms residing in adjacent waterways to treated fields. Although FMO activities have been identified in fish, the exact isoform profile is uncertain. Utilizing prochiral methyl tolyl sulfides (MTS) and isoform-selective antibodies, an attempt was made to identify specific FMO isoforms which may be involved in sulfoxidation reactions which have been shown to bioactivate thioether pesticides, such as aldicarb. Rainbow trout hepatic microsomes treated with detergent to eliminate cytochrome P450 contributions catalyzed the formation of the sulfoxide of MTS in 75% S enantiomeric excess. These catalytic results contrast activities of the five other FMO isoforms including FMO1 (> 98% R) and FMO3 (50% R). Benzydamine N-oxidation was also observed as were methimazole, thiourea, and aldicarb sulfoxidation reactions. Antibodies to FMO1 recognized a single protein of 60 kDa in trout liver microsomes, while anti-FMO3 antibodies only slightly reacted with a 55-kDa microsomal protein. These results indicate a novel isoform profile in rainbow trout liver implicating either a mixture of competing FMO isoforms or a FMO1-like isoform displaying unique catalytic activity.     

Zeolitization of intracaldera sediments and rhyolitic rocks in the 1.25 Ma lake of Valles caldera,New Mexico,USA

Quantitative X-ray diffraction analysis of about 80 rhyolite and associated lacustrine rocks has characterized previously unrecognized zeolitic alteration throughout the Valles caldera resurgent dome. The alteration assemblage consists primarily of smectite–clinoptilolite–mordenite–silica, which replaces groundmass and fills voids, especially in the tuffs and lacustrine rocks. Original rock textures are routinely preserved. Mineralization typically extends to depths of only a few tens of meters and resembles shallow “caldera-type zeolitization” as defined by Utada et al. [Utada, M., Shimizu, M., Ito, T., Inoue, A., 1999. Alteration of caldera-forming rocks related to the Sanzugawa volcanotectonic depression, northeast Honshu, Japan — with special reference to “caldera-type zeolitization.” Resource Geol. Spec. Issue No. 20, 129–140]. Geology and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates limit the period of extensive zeolite growth to roughly the first 30 kyr after the current caldera formed (ca. 1.25 to 1.22 Ma). Zeolitic alteration was promoted by saturation of shallow rocks with alkaline lake water (a mixture of meteoric waters and degassed hydrothermal fluids) and by high thermal gradients caused by cooling of the underlying magma body and earliest post-caldera rhyolite eruptions. Zeolitic alteration of this type is not found in the later volcanic and lacustrine rocks of the caldera moat (≤ 0.8 Ma) suggesting that later lake waters were cooler and less alkaline. The shallow zeolitic alteration does not have characteristics resembling classic, alkaline lake zeolite deposits (no analcime, erionite, or chabazite) nor does it contain zeolites common in high-temperature hydrothermal systems (laumontite or wairakite). Although aerially extensive, the early zeolitic alteration does not form laterally continuous beds and are consequently, not of economic significance.     

Seismic stratigraphy and structure of the Northland Plateau and the development of the Vening Meinesz transform margin,SW Pacific Ocean

The Northland Plateau and the Vening Meinesz “Fracture” Zone (VMFZ), separating southwest Pacific backarc basins from New Zealand Mesozoic crust, are investigated with new data. The 12–16 km thick Plateau comprises a volcanic outer plateau and an inner plateau sedimentary basin. The outer plateau has a positive magnetic anomaly like that of the Three Kings Ridge. A rift margin was found between the Three Kings Ridge and the South Fiji Basin. Beneath the inner plateau basin, is a thin body interpreted as allochthon and parautochthon, which probably includes basalt. The basin appears to have been created by Early Miocene mainly transtensive faulting, which closely followed obduction of the allochthon and was coeval with arc volcanism. VMFZ faulting was eventually concentrated along the edge of the continental shelf and upper slope. Consequently arc volcanoes in a chain dividing the inner and outer plateau are undeformed whereas volcanoes, in various stages of burial, within the basin and along the base of the upper slope are generally faulted. Deformed and flat-lying Lower Miocene volcanogenic sedimentary rocks are intimately associated with the volcanoes and the top of the allochthon; Middle Miocene to Recent units are, respectively, mildly deformed to flat-lying, calcareous and turbiditic. Many parts of the inner plateau basin were at or above sea level in the Early Miocene, apparently as isolated highs that later subsided differentially to 500–2,000 m below sea level. A mild, Middle Miocene compressive phase might correlate with events of the Reinga and Wanganella ridges to the west. Our results agree with both arc collision and arc unzipping regional kinematic models. We present a continental margin model that begins at the end of the obduction phase. Eastward rifting of the Norfolk Basin, orthogonal to the strike of the Norfolk and Three Kings ridges, caused the Northland Plateau to tear obliquely from the Reinga Ridge portion of the margin, initiating the inner plateau basin and the Cavalli core complex. Subsequent N115° extension and spreading parallel with the Cook Fracture Zone completed the southeastward translation of the Three Kings Ridge and Northland Plateau and further opened the inner plateau basin, leaving a complex dextral transform volcanic margin.     

Implementing marine spatial planning: A policy perspective

Marine spatial planning is often confronted with different types of hurdles that make the implementation of plans and strategies more difficult than scientists and planners—who have done most of the preparatory work—have foreseen. How does this situation come about? Is it due to the lack of interest or will of politicians? Are the technical proposals and plans too complex or too far from reality? Do they cost too much without comparable benefits? What can be done to avoid this? Based on recent experience within Belgium, some suggestions for more effective implementation of marine spatial plans are presented in this paper from a policy-making perspective.     

Do young martian ray craters have ages consistent with the crater count system?

McEwen et al. (McEwen, A.S., Preblich, B.S., Turtle, E.P., Artemieva, N.A., Golombek, M.P., Hurst, M., Kirk, R.L., Burr, D.M., Christensen, P. [2005]. Icarus 176, 351-381) developed a useful test for the internal consistency of crater-count chronometry systems. They argued that certain multi-kilometer, fresh-looking martian craters with prominent rays should be the youngest or near-youngest craters in their size range. The “McEwen et al. test” is that the ages determined from crater densities of the smallest superimposed craters (typically diameter D ∼ 5-20 m) should thus be comparable to the expected formation intervals of the host primary. McEwen et al. concluded from MOC data that crater chronometry failed this test by factors of 700-2000. We apply HiRISE and other imagery to eight different young craters in order to re-evaluate their arguments. We use existing crater chronology systems as well as the reported observed production rate of 16 m craters (Malin, M.C., Edgett, K., Posiolova, L., McColley, S., Noe Dobrea, E. [2006]. Science 314, 1573-1557; Hartmann, W.K., Quantin, C., Mangold, N. [2007]. Icarus 186, 11-23; Kreslavsky [2007]. Seventh International Conference on Mars, 3325). Every case passes the McEwen et al. test. We conclude that the huge inconsistencies suggested by McEwen et al. are spurious. Many of these craters show evidence of impact into ice-rich material, and appear to have ice-flow features and sublimation pits on their floors. As production rate data improve, decameter-scale craters will provide a valuable way of dating these young martian geological formations and the processes that modify them.