Changes in the onset and length of seasons from an ensemble of regional climate models over Spain for future climate conditions

This study analyses the length and onset of the four seasons based on the annual climatic cycle of maximum and minimum temperatures. Previous studies focused over climatically homogeneous mid-high latitude areas, employing fixed temperature thresholds (related to climatic features such as freezing point) that can be inadequate when different climate conditions are present. We propose a method related to the daily minimum and maximum temperature 25th and 75th point-dependent climatic percentiles. It is applied to an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) of 25-km horizontal resolution over the peninsular Spain and Balearic Islands, where a large variety of climatic regimes, from alpine to semi-desertic conditions, are present. First, baseline climate (1961–2000) ERA40-forced RCM simulations are successfully compared with the Spain02 daily observational database, following astronomical season length (around 90 days). This result confirms the validity of the proposed method and capability of the RCMs to describe the seasonal features. Future climate global climate model-forced RCMs (2071–2100) compared with present climate (1961–1990) simulations indicate the disappearance of winter season, a summer enlargement (onset and end) and a slight spring and autumn increase.     

The intracloud/cloud-to-ground lightning ratio in Southeastern Brazil

The intracloud to cloud-to-ground lightning flash ratio (Z) has been estimated for the first time in Southeastern Brazil and in the tropical region using the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Brazilian lightning detection network (BrasilDat) lightning data obtained from 1999 to 2005. Geographical variations of Z and their relation to elevation, latitude, precipitation, total lightning density and percentage of positive CG lightning will be discussed. Daily variations of Z will also be presented. The results suggest that Z values are similar to studies outside the tropics and that are influenced by orographic features.     

Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?

In the past 5 years there has been a proliferation of efforts to map climate change “hotspots” — regions that are particularly vulnerable to current or future climate impacts, and where human security may be at risk. While some are academic exercises, many are produced with the goal of drawing policy maker attention to regions that are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, either to mitigate the risk of humanitarian crises or conflicts or to target adaptation assistance. Hotspots mapping efforts address a range of issues and sectors such as vulnerable populations, humanitarian crises, conflict, agriculture and food security, and water resources. This paper offers a timely assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current hotspots mapping approaches with the goal of improving future efforts. It also highlights regions that are anticipated, based on combinations of high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, to suffer significant impacts from climate change.     

Countergradient Fluxes of Conserved Variables in the Clear convective and Stratocumulus-topped Boundary Layer: The role of the Entrainment Flux

Large-eddy simulations of a clear convective boundary layer (CBL)and a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer are studied. Bottom-upand a top-down scalars were included in the simulations, and theprinciple of linear superposition of variables was applied toreconstruct the fields of any arbitrary conserved variable.This approach allows a systematic analysis of countergradient fluxesas a function of the flux ratio, which is defined as the ratio betweenthe entrainment flux and the surface flux of the conserved quantity.In general, the turbulent flux of an arbitrary conserved quantityis counter to the mean vertical gradient if the heights where thevertical flux and the mean vertical gradient change sign do notcoincide. The regime where the flux is countergradient is thereforebounded by the so-called zero-flux and zero-gradient heights. Becausethe vertical flux changes sign only if the entrainment flux has anopposite sign to the surface flux, countergradient fluxes arepredominantly found for negative flux ratios. In the CBL the fluxratio for the virtual potential temperature is, to a good approximation,constant, and equal to -0.2. Only if the moisture contribution to thevirtual potential temperature is negligibly small will the flux ratio forthe potential temperature be equal to this value. Otherwise, theflux ratio for the potential temperature can have any arbitrary(negative) value, and, as a consequence, the fluxes for thepotential temperature and the virtual potential temperature willbe countergradient at different heights. As a practical application ofthe results, vertical profiles of the countergradient correction termfor different entrainment-to-surface-flux ratios are discussed.     

Holocene climate variability as derived from alkenone sea surface temperature and coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments

Holocene climate modes are identified by the statistical analysis of reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the tropical and North Atlantic regions. The leading mode of Holocene SST variability in the tropical region indicates a rapid warming from the early to mid Holocene followed by a relatively weak warming during the late Holocene. The dominant mode of the North Atlantic region SST captures the transition from relatively warm (cold) conditions in the eastern North Atlantic and the western Mediterranean Sea (the northern Red Sea) to relatively cold (warm) conditions in these regions from the early to late Holocene. This pattern of Holocene SST variability resembles the signature of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). The second mode of both tropical and North Atlantic regions captures a warming towards the mid Holocene and a subsequent cooling. The dominant modes of Holocene SST variability emphasize enhanced variability around 2300 and 1000 years. The leading mode of the coupled tropical-North Atlantic Holocene SST variability shows that an increase of tropical SST is accompanied by a decrease of SST in the eastern North Atlantic. An analogy with the instrumental period as well as the analysis of a long-term integration of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model suggest that the AO/NAO is one dominant mode of climate variability at millennial time scales.     

铁锰氧化物在污染土壤修复中的作用

矿物学在环境科学中的应用将是21世纪矿物学研究的一个主要方面。土壤污染作为一个制约人类社会可持续发展的基本问题正受到日益广泛的关注，污染土壤的修复已成为环境科学研究的一个重点。污染土壤的修复技术主要有物理、化学、生物等方法，但是，它们都不同程度地存在着缺陷。众所周知，铁和锰是自然界中少数但常见的变价元素。含有变价元素和带有表面电荷的铁锰氧化物具有良好的表面活性，不仅对有毒有害的无机污染物具有良好的净化功能，而且对土壤中有机污染物具有氧化降解作用。利用这些矿物来修复污染土壤，具有成本低、无二次污染等优点，体现出天然净化作用的特色，展现出广阔的环境矿物学应用前景。     

Impacts of topography and land degradation on the sea breeze over eastern Spain

Summary A three-dimensional non-hydrostatic atmospheric model RAMS, version3b, is used to examine the impact of complex topography on the sea breeze under heterogeneous and degradation land use characteristics. In the study, it is shown that topography plays an important role in the sea-breeze circulation by aligning the sea breeze front to the coastline and locating the convergence zones close to the mountain range. When the sea breeze is coupled with the upslope wind, the sea-breeze circulation is strengthened by the topography.Sensitivity analyses are carried out to determine the influence of vegetation and soil moisture, i.e., land surface modifications, to this thermally driven flow. Land degradation results in an enhanced sea-breeze circulation which is characterized by a stronger onshore flow, a stronger return current, a larger updraft velocity associated with the sea-breeze front and further inland penetration. Other important features are a deeper sea-breeze depth, a larger downdraft velocity behind the sea-breeze front, and a longer offshore extent. The results also show how land changes modify the sea breeze temporal evolution resulting in an earlier onset and later end. The study stresses the convenience of using three-dimensional models with detailed land surface information to model the sea breeze in complex terrain where land use is rapidly modified.Received February 25, 2002; accepted October 7, 2002 Published online April 10, 2003     

The Summer Surface Energy Balance of the High Antarctic Plateau

The summertime surface energy balance (SEB) at Kohnen station, situated on the high Antarctic plateau (75°00′ S, 0°04′ E, 2892m above sea level) is presented for the period of 8 January to 9 February 2002. Shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes were measured directly; the former was corrected for problems associated with the cosine response of the instrument. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were calculated using the bulk method, and eddy-correlation measurements and the modified Bowen ratio method were used to verify these calculated fluxes. The calculated sub-surface heat flux was checked by comparing calculated to measured snow temperatures. Uncertainties in the measurements and energy-balance calculations are discussed. The general meteorological conditions were not extraordinary during the period of the experiment, with a mean 2-m air temperature of −27.5°C, specific humidity of 0.52×10⁻³kg kg⁻¹ and wind speed of 4.1ms⁻¹. The experiment covered the transition period from Antarctic summer (positive net radiation) to winter (negative net radiation), and as a result the period mean net radiation, sensible heat, latent heat and sub-surface heat fluxes were small with values of −1.1, 0.0, −1.0 and 0.7 Wm⁻², respectively. Daily mean net radiation peaked on cloudy days (16 Wm⁻²) and was negative on clear-sky days (minimum of −19 W m⁻²). Daily mean sensible heat flux ranged from −8 to +10 Wm⁻², latent heat flux from −4 to 0 Wm⁻² and sub-surface heat flux from −8 to +7 Wm⁻².     

Evaluation of methods of spatial interpolation for monthly rainfall data over the state of Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

Five deterministic methods of spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall were compared over the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. The methods were the inverse distance weight (IDW), nearest neighbor (NRN), triangulation with linear interpolation (TLI), natural neighbor (NN), and spline tension (SPT). A set of 110 weather stations was used to test the methods. The selection of stations had two criteria: time series longer than 20 years and period of data from 1960 to 2009. The methods were evaluated using cross-validation, linear regression between values observed and interpolated, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (r ²), coefficient of variation (CV, %), and the Willmott index of agreement (d). The results from different methods are influenced by the meteorological systems and their seasonality, as well as by the interaction with the topography. The methods presented higher precision (r ²) and accuracy (d, RMSE) during the summer and transition to autumn, in comparison with the winter or spring months. The SPT had the highest precision and accuracy in relation to other methods, in addition to having a good representation of the spatial patterns expected for rainfall over the complex terrain of the state and its high spatial variability.     

Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America

The ability of four regional climate models to reproduce the present-day South American climate is examined with emphasis on La Plata Basin. Models were integrated for the period 1991–2000 with initial and lateral boundary conditions from ERA-40 Reanalysis. The ensemble sea level pressure, maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation are evaluated in terms of seasonal means and extreme indices based on a percentile approach. Dispersion among the individual models and uncertainties when comparing the ensemble mean with different climatologies are also discussed. The ensemble mean is warmer than the observations in South Eastern South America (SESA), especially for minimum winter temperatures with errors increasing in magnitude towards the tails of the distributions. The ensemble mean reproduces the broad spatial pattern of precipitation, but overestimates the convective precipitation in the tropics and the orographic precipitation along the Andes and over the Brazilian Highlands, and underestimates the precipitation near the monsoon core region. The models overestimate the number of wet days and underestimate the daily intensity of rainfall for both seasons suggesting a premature triggering of convection. The skill of models to simulate the intensity of convective precipitation in summer in SESA and the variability associated with heavy precipitation events (the upper quartile daily precipitation) is far from satisfactory. Owing to the sparseness of the observing network, ensemble and observations uncertainties in seasonal means are comparable for some regions and seasons.