Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

Investigating the relationships between climate extremes and crop yield can help us understand how unfavourable climatic conditions affect crop production. In this study, two statistical models, multiple linear regression and random forest, were used to identify rainfall extremes indices affecting wheat yield in three different regions of the New South Wales wheat belt. The results show that the random forest model explained 41–67% of the year-to-year yield variation, whereas the multiple linear regression model explained 34–58%. In the two models, 3-month timescale standardized precipitation index of Jun.–Aug. (SPI_JJA), Sep.–Nov. (SPI_SON), and consecutive dry days (CDDs) were identified as the three most important indices which can explain yield variability for most of the wheat belt. Our results indicated that the inter-annual variability of rainfall in winter and spring was largely responsible for wheat yield variation, and pre-growing season rainfall played a secondary role. Frequent shortages of rainfall posed a greater threat to crop growth than excessive rainfall in eastern Australia. We concluded that the comparison between multiple linear regression and machine learning algorithm proposed in the present study would be useful to provide robust prediction of yields and new insights of the effects of various rainfall extremes, when suitable climate and yield datasets are available.     

Cartographica incognita: ‘Dijital Jedis’, Satellite Salvation and the Mysteries of the ‘Missing Maps’

Like Participatory Geographic Information Systems (PGIS) and Public Participation Geographic Information Systems (PPGIS) crowdsourced collaborative mapping is often imagined as an alternative to conventional cartographic practice. This paper examines collaborative mapping projects designed to assist in humanitarian work and respond to catastrophes. These projects, their technological complexity and wide range of collaborators, including affected locals, international Non-Government Organisations (NGOs) and anonymous online contributors, invite closer consideration. In this article I unpick the gnarly question of how the remote sourcing of information through cloud collaboration and satellite imagery jostles with grounded work encouraging local control of local geoinformation. My critical analysis of these projects explores: (1) justifications for action – what is being promised through digital mapping as aid or satellite salvation?; (2) forms of participation – the role of ‘hotties’ ‘nodders’ and ‘digital jedis’; and (3) contingencies of mapping practices and the assemblages of actors within which they are embedded – as the mysteries of the ‘missing maps’. The conclusion considers differing approaches towards the inclusion of local knowledges within participatory digital aid mapping and identifies remote mapping practices that are both incognito and incognisant.     

Revealing Materials: plastics in alternative food economies

This article draws upon recent geographical work on assemblage to reconsider how we understand alternative food economies. In particular it brings attention to the devices upon which these economies rely—specifically plastics. Since the mid-twentieth century, plastics have developed close and complex relations with our agrifood systems; they facilitate commodity valuation and product circulation worldwide but are also recognised as problematic due to their environmental and human health impacts. Despite this paradox and the attention plastics increasingly receive, we know little of their relations with alternative food initiatives (AFIs). How do plastics inhabit alternative food economies? What associations and circulations become performed? What do these markets look like from a device-oriented perspective? To address these questions, the paper draws on fieldwork undertaken in Brisbane (Australia) with two AFIs—a weekly organic market and an online box program/wholesaler. Using visualisation and an assemblage approach discloses the presences, flows, functions, and tensions of plastics in AFIs. In this way, plastics are revealed but also act to reveal alternative food economies. This analysis steps away from evaluations of AFIs’ (in)effective challenge to neoliberalisation to consider them as complex, processual, sometimes ambivalent efforts that not only distribute ‘good food’ but engage in important ways with things like plastics.     

Paleomagnetic evidence for a diachronic clockwise rotation of the Coastal Range, eastern Taiwan

Paleomagnetic results obtained from over 2100 cores sampled at 132 early Pliocene to late Pleistocene sites in the Coastal Range of eastern Taiwan indicate that, since the late Pliocene, the margin of the Philippine Sea plate has undergone a clockwise rotation of about 30° as a direct consequence of the Plio-Pleistocene collision of this plate with the Chinese Continental plate. The rotation is diachronic and started between 3 and 4 Ma ago in the northern Coastal Range then propagated southward at an average speed of the order of 70 ± 10 km/Ma. This value is in very good agreement with estimates of the southward propagation of the collision between the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasian margin in Taiwan. It is suggested that the rotation reflects the deformation of the Philippine Sea plate at depth and does not results from the shallow deformations involved in the building of the Coastal Range orogen.     

Significance of gabbronorite occurrence in the crustal section of the Semail ophiolite

The eastern end of the Haylayn massif exposes a complex paleoridge structure interpreted as the tip of a northwestward propagating segment (Nicolas et al., this issue). The area, revisited from a petrostructural and geochemical viewpoint, offers the most documented exposures of the association of olivine gabbros and gabbronorites in Oman (Juteau et al., 1988). Gabbronorites were injected while the main gabbro unit was deforming in the magmatic state. Both units do not differ chemically, except for the SiO₂ enrichment of the orthopyroxene-rich gabbros relative to olivine-gabbro. In addition, they display the same trace element signature, which implies the same parent magma for both units. The extension of the stability field of orthopyroxene is assigned to increase of oxygen fugacity due to hydration. The source of hydration is the ridge axis hydrothermal circulation, suggesting hydrothermal/magma interaction at temperatures above the gabbro solidus. The distribution of gabbronorites at the scale of the entire ophiolite suggests a relation with ridge tectonics where high-T conditions of hydrothermal-magmatic interaction are met. Such conditions are met when propagating segments rotate the structures of the dying magma chamber.     

Seasonal variation in the molt status of an oceanic copepod

The timing of diapause, or suppressed development, in the dominant California Current copepod Calanus pacificus was examined in two ways. Diapause timing was inferred from changes in the abundance of deep, diapausing C. pacificus over a full year at a station off southern California, USA. Jaw phase and ecdysteroid content, indicators of molt cycle status in C. pacificus, were also examined to determine if shifts toward early molt phases, as are observed in diapausing Calanus, were also found among surface C. pacificus during periods when the abundance of deep, diapausing C. pacificus was increasing. The abundance of diapausing C. pacificus in deep water increased from June to mid-October, then declined from October to March. The percentage of surface-living C. pacificus CV with postmolt jaws, the earliest jaw phase, was significantly higher from June to mid-October than at other times. The ecdysteroid content of surface-living C. pacificus CV was also significantly lower during June to mid-October than during late October to May. Both of these changes indicate a shift to earlier molt phases in surface-living C. pacificus CV during periods of onset of diapause. However, the molt status of surface CV was variable from June to mid-October, suggesting that preparation for diapause was spatially or temporally heterogeneous. Hypotheses about environmental cues that induce diapause were evaluated, although the effect of cues on possibly sensitive stages could not be considered. The abundance of diapausing C. pacificus increased during a period of warm upper water column temperature and generally high and declining photoperiod; however, evaluation of the cues inducing diapause was inconclusive.     

Precipitation stable isotope variability and subcloud evaporation processes in a semi‐arid region

The stable isotopic (²H/¹H and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O) composition of precipitation has been used for a variety of hydrological and paleoclimate studies, a starting point for which is the behaviour of stable isotopes in modern precipitation. To this end, daily precipitation samples were collected over a 7‐year period (2008–2014) at a semi‐arid site located at the Macquarie Marshes, New South Wales (Australia). The samples were analysed for stable isotope composition, and factors affecting the isotopic variability were investigated. The best correlation between δ ¹⁸O of precipitation was with local surface relative humidity. The reduced major axis precipitation weighted local meteoric water line was δ ²H = 7.20 δ ¹⁸O + 9.1. The lower slope and intercept (when compared with the Global Meteoric Water Line) are typical for a warm dry climate, where subcloud evaporation of raindrops is experienced. A previously published model to estimate the degree of subcloud evaporation and the subsequent isotopic modification of raindrops was enhanced to include the vertical temperature and humidity profile. The modelled results for raindrops of 1.0 mm radius showed that on average, the measured D‐excess (=δ ²H ? 8 δ ¹⁸O) was 19.8‰ lower than that at the base of the cloud, and 18% of the moisture was evaporated before ground level (smaller effects were modelled for larger raindrops). After estimating the isotopic signature at the base of the cloud, a number of data points still plotted below the global meteoric water line, suggesting that some of the moisture was sourced from previously evaporated water. Back trajectory analysis estimated that 38% of the moisture was sourced over land. Precipitation samples for which a larger proportion of the moisture was sourced over land were ¹⁸O and ²H‐enriched in comparison to samples for which the majority of the moisture was sourced over the ocean. The most common weather systems resulting in precipitation were inland trough systems; however, only East Coast Lows contributed to a significant difference in the isotopic values. Copyright © 2016 Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation. Hydrological Processes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Avoiding deforestation in Panamanian protected areas: An analysis of protection effectiveness and implications for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is likely to be central to a post-Kyoto climate change mitigation agreement. As such, identifying conditions and factors that will shape the success or failure of a reduced deforestation scheme will provide important insights for policy planning. Given that protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone in forest conservation, we draw on interviews and secondary data to analyze the effects of available PA resources, governance ability, the level of community involvement, and provincial deforestation rates on land-cover change in nine PAs in Panama. Our results illustrate that coupling surveillance measures with greater funding and strong governance are paramount to reducing deforestation. Alone, however, these factors are insufficient for forest protection. We argue that conservation approaches that complement effective surveillance with community participation and equitable benefit sharing will address the wider issues of leakage and permanence.