Migration in a transitional economy: Beyond the planned and spontaneous dichotomy in Vietnam

Migration is frequently portrayed as a negative force in its relationship with economic and social development. This negative perception is exhibited through describing population movements as either ‘forced’ (e.g. political and environmental refugees) or ‘voluntary’ movements (e.g. economic and uninhibited relocation). This paper examines the limitations of this conceptual dualism. It points out that the dualistic approach, widely used in the context of developing countries, simplifies a highly complex phenomenon by ignoring its essential heterogeneity and spatial and temporal dynamics. As such, it is limited in explaining and understanding the globally diversified, historically and politically contextualised situations. Focusing on the migratory experiences of contemporary Vietnam, the study identifies major patterns and trends of population mobility in the country in the past fifty years. It shows that despite the state’s continued attempts to reshape the spatial distribution of population over recent historical periods, the policy outcomes with respect to population mobility have been swayed as much by individuals and their families in pursuit of their own aspirations and livelihoods as by state plans. The Vietnam case has provided evidence of a much more complicated relationship between migration and livelihoods than the conceptual dichotomy assumes, and the opportunity for a richer set of policy options. We argue that the evidence from Vietnam, and elsewhere, warrants an integrated approach to studying migration, combining analysis at the macro- and micro-levels with the nexus lying at the critical decision-making point of the individual or household.     

Constraints and deception in the isotopic record; the crustal evolution of the west Musgrave Province,central Australia

The Hf and Nd isotopic evolution of the Musgrave Province, central Australia, is used to constrain the timing of crust formation and lithospheric organisation of Proterozoic Australia. The dataset from this region challenges two widely held tenets of Hf and Nd isotope systematics, namely; that crust formation events can only be identified as periods when crystallisation ages correspond to model ages, and that linear Hf evolution arrays away from depleted mantle (along crustal Lu/Hf or Sm/Nd slopes) reflect reworking of the same source.Hf isotopes in Musgrave Province zircon crystals indicate two major crust formation events at c. 1900 Ma and at 1600–1550 Ma. Although no juvenile rocks or crystals are known from c. 1900 Ma, radiogenic addition into the crust at this time is required to account for consistent Nd and Hf evolution patterns, which show no indication of an initially heterogeneous source. Oxygen isotopes in zircon grains confirm that much of the c. 1900 Ma Hf isotopic signal is not compromised by mixtures. Furthermore, the correspondence between mantle extraction and the commencement of reworking of Archean material supports new crust generation at c. 1900 Ma and a coupling between lower and upper crustal processes. The c. 1900 Ma timing of juvenile addition is dissimilar to that in the Albany–Fraser and Arunta Orogens and may reflect continental arc development on the margin of a southern continent.The general Hf isotopic evolution trend of the Musgrave Province apparently reflects reworking from a dominant c. 1900 Ma source with some additional unradiogenic and radiogenic input through time. However, in the 1220–1050 Ma interval this apparent isotopic evolution contrasts with geological observations that indicate input of voluminous mantle-derived material. Intracontinental rifts and other regions with sustained very-high temperature crustal recycling processes generate magmatic provinces with extreme HFSE-enrichment. This can have a profound influence on isotopic evolution trends, suppressing typical juvenile addition patterns. Isotopic mixture modelling indicates that a significant volume of mantle derived material can be accommodated within HFSE enriched magmas without diverging isotopic signatures from apparent reworking trends. In the Musgrave Province, the crust had become so HFSE enriched during the prolonged Musgrave Orogeny (1220–1150 Ma) that it was insensitive to mantle input, which is estimated to have been as much as 85% during this event.     

Characterizing agricultural drought in the Karamoja subregion of Uganda with meteorological and satellite-based indices

Karamoja is notoriously food insecure and has been in need of food aid for most years during the last two decades. One of the main factors causing food insecurity is drought. Reliable, area-wide, long-term data for detecting and monitoring drought conditions are critical for timely, life-saving interventions and the long-term development of the region, yet such data are sparse or unavailable. Due to advances in satellite remote sensing, characterizing drought in data-sparse regions like Karamoja has become possible. This study characterizes agricultural drought in Karamoja to enable a comprehensive understanding of drought, concomitantly evaluating the suitability of NDVI-based drought monitoring. We found that in comparison with the existing data, NDVI data currently provide the best, consistent, and spatially explicit information for operational drought monitoring in Karamoja. Results indicate that the most extreme agricultural drought in recent years occurred in 2009 followed by 2004 and 2002 and suggest that in Karamoja, moderate to severe droughts (e.g., 2008) often have the same impact on crops and human needs (e.g., food aid) as extreme droughts (e.g., 2009). We present in a proof-of-concept frame, a method to estimate the number of people needing food assistance and the population likely to fall under the integrated food security phase classification (IPC) Phase 3 (crisis) due to drought severity. Our model indicates that 90.7% of the variation in the number of people needing aid can be explained by NDVI data and NDVI data can augment these estimates. We conclude that the biggest drivers of food insecurity are the cultivation of crops on marginal land with insignificant inputs, the lack of irrigation and previous systematic incapacitation of livestock (pastoral) alternatives through government programming. Further research is needed to bridge empirical results with social–economic studies on drought impacts on communities in the region to better understand additional factors that will need to be addressed to ensure livelihood resilience.     

Probabilistic assessment of the impact of coal seam gas development on groundwater: Surat Basin,Australia

Modelling cumulative impacts of basin-scale coal seam gas (CSG) extraction is challenging due to the long time frames and spatial extent over which impacts occur combined with the need to consider local-scale processes. The computational burden of such models limits the ability to undertake calibration and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. A framework is presented that integrates recently developed methods and tools to address the computational burdens of an assessment of drawdown impacts associated with rapid CSG development in the Surat Basin, Australia. The null space Monte Carlo method combined with singular value decomposition (SVD)-assisted regularisation was used to analyse the uncertainty of simulated drawdown impacts. The study also describes how the computational burden of assessing local-scale impacts was mitigated by adopting a novel combination of a nested modelling framework which incorporated a model emulator of drawdown in dual-phase flow conditions, and a methodology for representing local faulting. This combination provides a mechanism to support more reliable estimates of regional CSG-related drawdown predictions. The study indicates that uncertainties associated with boundary conditions are reduced significantly when expressing differences between scenarios. The results are analysed and distilled to enable the easy identification of areas where the simulated maximum drawdown impacts could exceed trigger points associated with legislative ‘make good’ requirements; trigger points require that either an adjustment in the development scheme or other measures are implemented to remediate the impact. This report contributes to the currently small body of work that describes modelling and uncertainty analyses of CSG extraction impacts on groundwater.     

Sensitivity of hydrological models to uncertainty in rainfall input

Abstract

Different approaches used in hydrological modelling are compared in terms of the way each one takes the rainfall data into account. We examine the errors associated with accounting for rainfall variability, whether in hydrological modelling (distributed vs lumped models) or in computing catchment rainfall, as well as the impact of each approach on the representativeness of the parameters it uses. The database consists of 1859 rainfall events, distributed on 500 basins, located in the southeast of France with areas ranging from 6.2 to 2851 km². The study uses as reference the hydrographs computed by a distributed hydrological model from radar rainfall. This allows us to compare and to test the effects of various simplifications to the process when taking rainfall information (complete rain field vs sampled rainfall) and rainfall–runoff modelling (lumped vs distributed) into account. The results appear to show that, in general, the sampling effect can lead to errors in discharge at the outlet that are as great as, or even greater than, those one would get with a fully lumped approach. We found that small catchments are more sensitive to the uncertainties in catchment rainfall input generated by sampling rainfall data as seen through a raingauge network. Conversely, the larger catchments are more sensitive to uncertainties generated when the spatial variability of rainfall events is not taken into account. These uncertainties can be compensated for relatively easily by recalibrating the parameters of the hydrological model, although such recalibrations cause the parameter in question to completely lose physical meaning.

Citation Arnaud, P., Lavabre, J., Fouchier, C., Diss, S. & Javelle, P. (2011) Sensitivity of hydrological models to uncertainty of rainfall input. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 397–410.     

Causes and consequences of recent floods in the Golestan catchments and Caspian Sea regions of Iran

In August 2001, the worst flash flooding event of the Caspian Sea regions in over two centuries claimed over 300 lives after a weekend of heavy rainfall and brought about a devastating disaster in the Mother-Soo catchment, province of Golestan, Iran. As a result of this event, a series of site investigation were carried out to identify the pertinent factors that led to a flood of this magnitude. This paper identifies the fundamental causes of the frequent floods and debris flow occurrence in the area prone to flooding and analyzes the main runoff mechanism of these events. The maximum observed 24-h rainfall depths and maximum peak discharges at the existing gauges were compared with the depths of rainfall and the peak values corresponding to the August 2001 flood respectively. For the majority of the rain gauges, the rainfall depth exceeded those of historical recorded events. In Golestan dam, an increase of 7.5 times the maximum value observed in the past 20 years was noted. The flood height was 10–15 m while passing through the middle subcatchment area of Golestan National Park. The preliminary evaluation indicates the existence of bare soil in the catchment, movable material, steep slopes, high rainfall intensity, deterioration of pasture and forest land, and inappropriate agriculture and development practices as well as climate change were the main factors for the occurrence and the extent of the August 2001 disaster. Finally, due to the likelihood of flooding and debris flow events in future, some countermeasures are proposed.     

Insight from analytical solutions for improved simulation of miscible WAG flooding in one dimension

In this work, the analytical and numerical solutions for modeling miscible gas and water injection into an oil reservoir are presented. Conservation laws with three levels of complexity are considered. Only the most complex model has the correct phase behavior for the example system, which is a multicontact miscible condensing gas drive with simultaneous water and gas injection. Example displacements in which one or both of the simpler models result in accurate simulations in a fraction of the computation time are presented, along with an example in which neither simplified thermodynamic model achieves a truly satisfactory result. A methodology is presented that can be used to establish the accuracy of simplified models in 1-D simulation based on convergence to analytical solutions for the full three-phase system.     

Accurate Measurement of Rare Earth Elements by ICP‐MS after Ion‐Exchange Separation: Application to Ultra‐Depleted Samples

This study reports precise and accurate data for rare earth elements (REE) measured on eight geological reference materials, five enriched in REE (BE‐N, BHVO‐2, BR, BR‐24 and RGM‐1) and three very depleted in REE (BIR‐1, UB‐N and DTS‐2). Data were acquired by quadrupole ICP‐MS after isolation of the REE using an ion‐exchange chromatography procedure. All the measured REE abundances were similar within ≈ 5% (10% for the most REE‐depleted sample DTS‐2) to the high‐quality measurements previously published in the literature. We also show that by using an internal Tm spike, the reproducibility of the data was improved to ～ 1%. Applying this technique to the analysis of ultra‐depleted rock samples (sub ng g^?1), we show that significant improvements were obtained relative to the routine trace element measurement method. The chondrite‐normalised patterns were smooth instead of displaying irregularities. Although the classical method gives excellent results on REE‐rich samples, we believe that our technique improves the precision and accuracy of measurements for highly REE‐depleted rocks.     

Diurnal and tidal patterns of carbon uptake and calcification in geniculate inter‐tidal coralline algae

Research on coralline algal responses to ocean acidification and other environmental stressors has increased in recent years as coralline algae is thought to stand a higher chance of being affected by acidification stress than other macroalgae. To provide context and enhance the existing eco‐physiological framework for climate change studies, it is important to understand the effects of non‐extreme stressors experienced regularly by inter‐tidal coralline algae. In this study, we tested the potentially interacting effects of diurnal and tidal treatments on calcification in the geniculate coralline algae Corallina frondescens and Corallina vancouveriensis using ¹³C‐labeled bicarbonate. Both species deposited more calcium carbonate during the day than at night, and also when submerged (high tide) compared with when emerged (low tide) in their apical and mature segments (intergenicula). These results indicate that inter‐tidal coralline algae do in fact pay a cost for living inter‐tidally at the edge of an adaptive zone.