Probabilistic assessment of the impact of coal seam gas development on groundwater: Surat Basin,Australia

Modelling cumulative impacts of basin-scale coal seam gas (CSG) extraction is challenging due to the long time frames and spatial extent over which impacts occur combined with the need to consider local-scale processes. The computational burden of such models limits the ability to undertake calibration and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. A framework is presented that integrates recently developed methods and tools to address the computational burdens of an assessment of drawdown impacts associated with rapid CSG development in the Surat Basin, Australia. The null space Monte Carlo method combined with singular value decomposition (SVD)-assisted regularisation was used to analyse the uncertainty of simulated drawdown impacts. The study also describes how the computational burden of assessing local-scale impacts was mitigated by adopting a novel combination of a nested modelling framework which incorporated a model emulator of drawdown in dual-phase flow conditions, and a methodology for representing local faulting. This combination provides a mechanism to support more reliable estimates of regional CSG-related drawdown predictions. The study indicates that uncertainties associated with boundary conditions are reduced significantly when expressing differences between scenarios. The results are analysed and distilled to enable the easy identification of areas where the simulated maximum drawdown impacts could exceed trigger points associated with legislative ‘make good’ requirements; trigger points require that either an adjustment in the development scheme or other measures are implemented to remediate the impact. This report contributes to the currently small body of work that describes modelling and uncertainty analyses of CSG extraction impacts on groundwater.     

Sensitivity of hydrological models to uncertainty in rainfall input

Abstract

Different approaches used in hydrological modelling are compared in terms of the way each one takes the rainfall data into account. We examine the errors associated with accounting for rainfall variability, whether in hydrological modelling (distributed vs lumped models) or in computing catchment rainfall, as well as the impact of each approach on the representativeness of the parameters it uses. The database consists of 1859 rainfall events, distributed on 500 basins, located in the southeast of France with areas ranging from 6.2 to 2851 km². The study uses as reference the hydrographs computed by a distributed hydrological model from radar rainfall. This allows us to compare and to test the effects of various simplifications to the process when taking rainfall information (complete rain field vs sampled rainfall) and rainfall–runoff modelling (lumped vs distributed) into account. The results appear to show that, in general, the sampling effect can lead to errors in discharge at the outlet that are as great as, or even greater than, those one would get with a fully lumped approach. We found that small catchments are more sensitive to the uncertainties in catchment rainfall input generated by sampling rainfall data as seen through a raingauge network. Conversely, the larger catchments are more sensitive to uncertainties generated when the spatial variability of rainfall events is not taken into account. These uncertainties can be compensated for relatively easily by recalibrating the parameters of the hydrological model, although such recalibrations cause the parameter in question to completely lose physical meaning.

Citation Arnaud, P., Lavabre, J., Fouchier, C., Diss, S. & Javelle, P. (2011) Sensitivity of hydrological models to uncertainty of rainfall input. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 397–410.     

Causes and consequences of recent floods in the Golestan catchments and Caspian Sea regions of Iran

In August 2001, the worst flash flooding event of the Caspian Sea regions in over two centuries claimed over 300 lives after a weekend of heavy rainfall and brought about a devastating disaster in the Mother-Soo catchment, province of Golestan, Iran. As a result of this event, a series of site investigation were carried out to identify the pertinent factors that led to a flood of this magnitude. This paper identifies the fundamental causes of the frequent floods and debris flow occurrence in the area prone to flooding and analyzes the main runoff mechanism of these events. The maximum observed 24-h rainfall depths and maximum peak discharges at the existing gauges were compared with the depths of rainfall and the peak values corresponding to the August 2001 flood respectively. For the majority of the rain gauges, the rainfall depth exceeded those of historical recorded events. In Golestan dam, an increase of 7.5 times the maximum value observed in the past 20 years was noted. The flood height was 10–15 m while passing through the middle subcatchment area of Golestan National Park. The preliminary evaluation indicates the existence of bare soil in the catchment, movable material, steep slopes, high rainfall intensity, deterioration of pasture and forest land, and inappropriate agriculture and development practices as well as climate change were the main factors for the occurrence and the extent of the August 2001 disaster. Finally, due to the likelihood of flooding and debris flow events in future, some countermeasures are proposed.     

Insight from analytical solutions for improved simulation of miscible WAG flooding in one dimension

In this work, the analytical and numerical solutions for modeling miscible gas and water injection into an oil reservoir are presented. Conservation laws with three levels of complexity are considered. Only the most complex model has the correct phase behavior for the example system, which is a multicontact miscible condensing gas drive with simultaneous water and gas injection. Example displacements in which one or both of the simpler models result in accurate simulations in a fraction of the computation time are presented, along with an example in which neither simplified thermodynamic model achieves a truly satisfactory result. A methodology is presented that can be used to establish the accuracy of simplified models in 1-D simulation based on convergence to analytical solutions for the full three-phase system.     

Accurate Measurement of Rare Earth Elements by ICP‐MS after Ion‐Exchange Separation: Application to Ultra‐Depleted Samples

This study reports precise and accurate data for rare earth elements (REE) measured on eight geological reference materials, five enriched in REE (BE‐N, BHVO‐2, BR, BR‐24 and RGM‐1) and three very depleted in REE (BIR‐1, UB‐N and DTS‐2). Data were acquired by quadrupole ICP‐MS after isolation of the REE using an ion‐exchange chromatography procedure. All the measured REE abundances were similar within ≈ 5% (10% for the most REE‐depleted sample DTS‐2) to the high‐quality measurements previously published in the literature. We also show that by using an internal Tm spike, the reproducibility of the data was improved to ～ 1%. Applying this technique to the analysis of ultra‐depleted rock samples (sub ng g^?1), we show that significant improvements were obtained relative to the routine trace element measurement method. The chondrite‐normalised patterns were smooth instead of displaying irregularities. Although the classical method gives excellent results on REE‐rich samples, we believe that our technique improves the precision and accuracy of measurements for highly REE‐depleted rocks.     

Diurnal and tidal patterns of carbon uptake and calcification in geniculate inter‐tidal coralline algae

Research on coralline algal responses to ocean acidification and other environmental stressors has increased in recent years as coralline algae is thought to stand a higher chance of being affected by acidification stress than other macroalgae. To provide context and enhance the existing eco‐physiological framework for climate change studies, it is important to understand the effects of non‐extreme stressors experienced regularly by inter‐tidal coralline algae. In this study, we tested the potentially interacting effects of diurnal and tidal treatments on calcification in the geniculate coralline algae Corallina frondescens and Corallina vancouveriensis using ¹³C‐labeled bicarbonate. Both species deposited more calcium carbonate during the day than at night, and also when submerged (high tide) compared with when emerged (low tide) in their apical and mature segments (intergenicula). These results indicate that inter‐tidal coralline algae do in fact pay a cost for living inter‐tidally at the edge of an adaptive zone.     

Nitrogenase activity and estimates of nitrogen fixation by freshwater benthic blue‐green algae

The sandy substrate of Lake Taharoa (west coast, North Island, New Zealand ‐ 35°50'S, 173°41'E) is covered by communities of filamentous algae that extend from the exposed beach down to 21 m depth. The algae bind the sand to form crusts and mats which may break off as discrete plates. The dominant species are the blue‐greens Microcoleus, Nostoc, Phormidium, Lyngbya, Oscillatoria, Scytonema, Stigonema, Shizothrix, Calothrix, Dichothrix, Tolypothrix, and Anabaena, with occasional high concentrations of the desmid Cylindrocystis. Nitrogenase activity, measured by acetylene reduction, showed a wide range of rates (4–150 μmol C₂H₄ m^‐2h^‐1). Estimates of annual rates of nitrogen fixation by the Taharoa communities are comparable with those for periphytic blue‐green algae‐dominated systems reported elsewhere.     

Subtidal Galeolaria hystrix (Polychaeta: Serpulidae) reefs in Paterson Inlet,Stewart Island,New Zealand

Serpulid patch reefs of Galeolaria hystrix Mörch, 1863 were found in water depths of 9–16 m in Big Glory Bay, Paterson Inlet, Stewart Island, and here we report preliminary studies of these important habitat‐formers. This is the first observation of this species in subtidal patch reefs; 114 reefs were noted in a survey of 28 000 m². Most reefs were 1–5 m in diameter, and up to 1.5 m high. Up to 65% of the serpulid tubes were occupied by living G. hystrix during a mid‐winter diving survey; 64% of reefs observed were whole, whereas 36% were broken or dead. Radiometric dating of a basal specimen of reef carbonate showed it to be less than 50 years old. Production of high‐Mg calcite, ranging from 9 to 11 wt% MgCO3, by G. hystrix may be as much as 11 kg CaCO3 m^‐2y^‐1, but was not reflected in surrounding sediments, which were dominantly terrigenous muds. A rich reef fauna, both sessile and motile, was associated with the reefs. Further study of these unusual temperate reefs is strongly recommended.     

Selective separation of very fine particles at a planar air–water interface

Selective fine particle separation is a key unit operation in the mineral and related industries. In flotation, the capture of fine particles by bubbles is inefficient due to their low mass and momentum, which result in low particle–bubble collision efficiency. We demonstrate that it is possible to selectively separate a mixture of very fine hydrophobic graphite and hydrophilic quartz particles by direct contact with an air–water interface without a particle–bubble collision step involved. We demonstrate that it is possible to scale-up the process from a simple batch to a continuous process. Good selective separation of graphite from quartz gangue could be obtained under continuous conditions.