Analytical evaluation of structural component limit state probabilities

Probabilistic seismic assessment requires extensive computational effort resulting from variability both in input ground motions and mechanical properties. Nonetheless, such methodologies are of considerable importance, namely for pre-earthquake disaster planning or development of retrofitting programs. A framework for the analytical definition of closed form expressions for exceedance probabilities of structural component limit states, defined by limit values of structural response parameters, is proposed herein. The definition of these expressions is based on the probabilistic representation of the ground motion intensity and on the establishment of suitable expressions characterizing the evolution of structural demand with increasing earthquake intensity. Distinction is made between deformation-based and force-based structural parameters in the definition of such relations. Within the proposed framework, the limit states are defined by single deterministic thresholds of structural response quantities at the component level, as defined in structural codes. Different approaches are also discussed to account for the randomness of the mechanical properties and ground motion input within the proposed methodology. An application of the assessment of different limit state probabilities of members from a reinforced concrete building is presented, for which limit states and limit state capacities are defined according to the upcoming Part 3 of the Eurocode 8. Although the presented application only deals with member chord rotation and shear force limit state probabilities, the proposed methodology can be generalized to other deformation-based and force-based structural parameters.     

Numerical experiments on the long-term morphodynamics of the Colorado River Delta

The interaction among tidal currents, sediment transport, and long-term changes of the sea bottom in the Colorado River Delta have been investigated applying a two dimensional nonlinear hydrodynamic-numerical finite differences model. The system was forced by the dominant M ₂ tidal component at the open boundary. We carried out calculations to study the morphodynamics of the actual bathymetry caused by the bedload sediment transport. To investigate the origin of actual morphological features, we performed experiments using a smoothed bathymetry, in which the islands Montague, Gore, and Pelícano were eliminated. Under the imposed tidal hydrodynamics, the results indicate that the bedload transport contributes significantly in the genesis of sandbanks and in the formation and maintaining of the Montague and Gore Islands.     

Short-term effects of gamma ray bursts on oceanic photosynthesis

We continue our previous work on the potential short-term influence of a gamma ray bursts on Earth’s biosphere, focusing on the only important short-term effect on life: the ultraviolet flash which occurs as a result of the retransmission of the γ radiation through the atmosphere. Thus, in this work we calculate the ultraviolet irradiances penetrating the first hundred meters of the water column, for Jerlov’s ocean water types I, II and III. Then we estimate the UV flash potential for photosynthesis inhibition in the whole photic zone, showing that it can be important in the first tens of meters of the water column.     

Vapour source and spatiotemporal variation of precipitation isotopes in Southwest Spain

The δ²H and δ¹⁸O composition of 77 precipitation samples collected between January 2014 and April 2019 from two sites across the Guadalquivir Basin, SW Spain, were analysed. The first site is located in an urban area of Seville at 100 km distance to the Atlantic coast and the second site is located in a dune area of the Doñana National Park a few kilometres from the coast. Sampling was performed within intervals of at least 14 days if rain occurred but frequently intervals were longer according to the rainfall incidence. Samples from both sites are available for the period February 2016 to June 2018 with six samples containing identical rain events at both locations. Precipitation weighted averages and local meteoric water lines produced by weighting and non-weighting regression methods are presented for its use in hydrological applications. Results show a remarkably high variability in δ²H and δ¹⁸O values and precipitation weighted average d-excess values of 11.8‰ and 13‰ at the sites Plaza de España and Doñana, respectively. Temperature and amount effects were found to be weak. A significant influence of secondary evaporation for single rainfall events during summer was identified by enriched isotopic signatures with reduced d-excess values plotting close or below the global meteoric water line. Backward trajectory analysis of 115 days with daily rainfall above 3 mm yield a predominant Atlantic Ocean vapour source with negligible Mediterranean influence and therefore, d-excess variability is attributed to the different ocean surface conditions of relative humidity and sea surface temperature. Parallel sampling indicate very similar isotopic signatures at both sites and point to the existence of thermal effects of the Plaza de España site in Seville city during the summer season.     

Exploring possible connections between hydrological extreme events and climate change in central south Chile

Abstract

Motivated by recent extreme flow events in the Mataquito River located in the Mediterranean region of Chile, we performed a detailed trend analysis of critical hydroclimatic variables based on observed daily flow, precipitation and temperature within the basin. For the period 1976–2008, positive trends in temperature were observed, especially during spring and summer months. At the same time, we found negative trends in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, especially during spring months. We observed an increasing difference between average streamflow in the rainy season as compared to the snowmelt season. Part of this trend is caused by larger flows during autumn months, although no positive precipitation trends are observed for these months. Finally, significant reductions in minimum flow during spring/summer and a disproportionate concentration of high-flow events occurring in the last 10 years were also identified. These high-flow events tend to happen during autumn months, and are associated with high precipitation and high minimum temperatures. Based on a simple assessment of changes in irrigated agriculture and land use, we concluded that other non-climatic factors seem not to be as relevant to the detected flow trends. All these results are in accord with future climate change scenarios that show an increase in temperature, a reduction in average precipitation and a reduction in snow accumulation. Such future scenarios could seriously hamper the development of economic activities in this basin, exemplifying also a fate that may be shared by other similar basins in Chile and in other regions of the world.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Vicuña, S., Gironás, J., Meza, F.J., Cruzat, M.L., Jelinek, M., Bustos, E., Poblete, D., and Bambach, N., 2013. Exploring possible connections between hydrological extreme events and climate change in central south Chile. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1598–1619.     

Grenvillian remnants in the Northern Andes: Rodinian and Phanerozoic paleogeographic perspectives

Grenvillian crust is encountered in several basement inliers in the northern Andes of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru and is also represented as a major detrital or inherited component within Neoproterozoic to Paleozoic sedimentary and magmatic rocks. This review of the tectonic and geochronological record of the Grenvillian belt in the northern Andes suggests that these crustal segments probably formed on an active continental margin in which associated arc and back-arc magmatism evolved from ca. 1.25 to 1.16 Ga, possibly extending to as young as 1.08 Ga.The lithostratigraphic and tectonic history of the Grenvillian belt in the northern Andes differs from that of the Sunsas belt on the southwest Amazonian Craton and from the Grenvillian belt of Eastern Laurentia. It is considered that this belt, along with similar terranes of Grenvillian age in Middle America and Mexico define a separate composite orogen which formed on the northwestern margin of the Amazonian Craton. Microcontinent accretion and interaction with the Sveconorwegian province on Baltica is a feasible tectonic scenario, in line with recent paleogeographic reconstructions of the Rodinian supercontinent. Although Phanerozoic tectonics may have redistributed some of these terranes, they are still viewed as para-autocthonous domains that remained in proximity to the margin of Amazonia. Paleogeographic data derived from Phanerozoic rocks suggest that some of the Colombian Grenvillian fragments were connected to northernmost Peru and Ecuador until the Mesozoic, whereas the Mexican terranes where attached to the Colombian margin until Pangea fragmentation in Late Triassic times.     

Modelling production of migratory catfish larvae (Pimelodidae) on the basis of regional hydro‐ climatology features of the Madre de Dios Basin in southeastern Peru

A simple stochastic model is presented to describe the influence of the natural flow regime of the Madre de Dios River (southeastern Peru) on the presence and downstream transportation of catfish larvae (Siluriformes: Pimelodidae), an important migratory species in commercial fisheries in the Peruvian Amazon region. One year of daily river stage records were related to weekly larval catches to determine the association between floods and spawning events, and based on the hydro‐climatologic characteristics of Andean‐Amazon regions, available long‐term historical rainfall records were used to determine the inter‐annual variability of floods within the Madre de Dios Basin. Major larval drift occurred during the high water season, specifically in association with stages of over 5 m, which served as an indicator triggering spawning responses of these species, termed a ‘biologically significant event’ (BSE). Timing of these BSEs, estimated from the historical rainfall records, described a uniform distribution during the wet season, and their inter‐arrival times were exponentially distributed. These observations provided the basis of the stochastic model describing the likelihood of larvae releases from this headwater region to the lowland Amazon. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Field and geochemical characteristics of Mesoarchean to Neoarchean volcanic rocks in the Storø greenstone belt,SW Greenland: Evidence for accretion of intra-oceanic volcanic arcs

The Storø greenstone belt, southern West Greenland, consists of thrust-imbricated slices of Mesoarchean (>3060 Ma) and Neoarchean (ca. 2800 Ma) mafic to ultramafic volcanic rocks, volcaniclastic sediments, and gabbro–anorthosite associations. The belt underwent polyphase metamorphism at upper amphibolite facies conditions between 2650 and 2600 Ma. The contacts between the Mesoarchean and Neoarchean volcanic rocks, and surrounding Eoarchean to Neoarchean tonalite–trondhjemite–granodiorite (TTG) gneisses are tectonic and typically bounded by high-grade mylonites. Regardless of age, the volcanic rocks are dominated by mafic amphibolites with a tholeiitic basalt composition, near-flat to slightly enriched light rare earth element (LREE) patterns (La/Sm_cn = 0.91–1.48), relatively flat to slightly depleted heavy-REE (HREE) (Gd/Yb_cn = 1.0–1.28), and pronounced negative Nb–Ta anomalies (Nb/Nb* = 0.34–0.73) on chondrite- and primitive mantle-normalized diagrams. These geochemical characteristics are consistent with subduction zone geochemical signatures and partial melting of a shallow (<80 km) mantle source free of residual garnet. There is no geochemical evidence for contamination by older continental crust. The overall field and geochemical characteristics suggest that the thrust-imbricated basaltic rocks were erupted in intra-oceanic subduction zone settings. Sedimentary rocks are represented by garnet–biotite and quartzitic gneisses. They are characterized by relatively high contents of transition metal (Ni = 10–154 ppm; Cr = 7–166 ppm) and enriched LREE patterns (La/Sm_cn = 1.38–3.79). These geochemical characteristics suggest that the sedimentary rocks were derived from erosion of felsic to mafic igneous source rocks. Collectively, the structural and lithogeochemical characteristics of the Storø greenstone belt are consistent with collision (accretion) of unrelated Archean volcanic rocks formed in supra-subduction zone geodynamic settings. Accordingly, the Mesoarchean and Neoarchean rock record of the Storø greenstone belt may well be explained in terms of modern-style plate tectonic processes.