Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

Assessment of cytochrome P450 1A in harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) using a minimally-invasive biopsy approach

Biomarkers of organochlorine exposure, such as the induction of cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A), can be used to assess the impact of environmental contaminants on the health of free-ranging marine mammal populations. The objective of the present study was to measure CYP1A in skin and liver biopsies obtained from live harbour seals (Phoca vitulina). Twelve harbour seal pups, aged three to five weeks, were captured from the Fraser River estuary, British Columbia, Canada, and temporarily held in captivity. Skin ( approximately 60 mg) and liver ( approximately 40 mg) biopsies, obtained while seals were under general anaesthesia, yielded sufficient tissue for the measurement of CYP1A by immunoblot analysis and ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase activity. A short-term exposure experiment, in which harbour seals (n=3) were treated orally with beta-naphthoflavone (BNF), resulted in increased hepatic and cutaneous CYP1A protein levels, consistent with observations in other mammals. This study is the first to measure CYP1A in skin and liver biopsies from live harbour seals and to report in vivo BNF-associated CYP1A induction in a marine mammal. The results demonstrate that microsamples collected using minimally-invasive techniques can provide toxicologically-relevant information form marine mammals.     

Effects of crab–halophytic plant interactions on creek growth in a S.W. Atlantic salt marsh: A Cellular Automata model

The Bahía Blanca Estuary (38° 50′ S, and 62° 30′ W) presents salt marshes where interactions between the local flora (Sarcocornia perennis) and fauna (Chasmagnathus granulatus) generate some kind of salt pans that alter the normal water circulation and condition its flow and course towards tidal creeks. The crab–vegetation dynamics in the salt marsh presents variations that cannot be quantified in a reasonable period of time. The interaction between S. perennis plant and C. granulatus crab is based on simple laws, but its result is a complex biological mechanism that causes an erosive process on the salt marsh and favors the formation of tidal creeks. To study it, a Cellular Automata model is proposed, based on the laws deduced from the observation of these phenomena in the field, and then verified with measurable data within macroscale time units. Therefore, the objective of this article is to model how the interaction between C. granulatus and S. perennis modifies the landscape of the salt marsh and influences the path of tidal creeks. The model copies the basic laws that rule the problem based on purely biological factors.The Cellular Automata model proved capable of reproducing the effects of the interaction between plants and crabs in the salt marsh. A study of the water drainage of the basins showed that this interaction does indeed modify the development of tidal creeks. Model dynamics would likewise follow different laws, which would provide a different formula for the probability of patch dilation. The patch shape can be obtained changing the pattern that dilates.     

The mysid Siriella armata as a test organism in toxicology: Effects of cadmium

A shrimp-like crustacean of the coastal Zooplankton in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, the mysid Siriella armata, offers a test organism whose life cycle is entirely controllable under laboratory conditions. The effects of the heavy metal cadmium were studied on adults and juveniles cultured in the laboratory including acute toxicity, bioaccumulation and effects on growth, ingestion and moult cycle.     

The University of Durham Southern Hemisphere VHE gamma ray telescope

The design of very high energy (VHE) gamma ray telescopes is discussed and it is shown that a triple-mirror telescope operating in threefold fast coincidence provides an effective instrument. The design, construction and operation of a large VHE gamma ray telescope with an energy threshold of 300 GeV (at the zenith) and incorporating several novel features is described. The use of a coincidence guard ring technique is shown to result in the rejection of about 50% of the off-source (proton) events which form a high background and limit the sensitivity of such telescopes.     

Spatial Heterogeneity Created by Burrowing Crabs Affects Human Impact on Migratory Shorebirds

We show that, as previously described, there are conflicts between areas used by people and shorebirds. However, we propose that burrowing organisms add complexity to the shorebird–human interaction that should be taken into account for management and conservation. This is because SW Atlantic mudflats are dominated by high densities (up to 60 crabs m⁻²) of a strong bioturbator, the burrowing crab Neohelice granulata (=Chasmagnathus granulatus). These crabs affect the habitat use and foraging performance of shorebird species. The two-banded plover Charadrius falklandicus feed more in burrow areas whereas the yellowlegs Tringa spp. and the white-rumped sandpiper Calidris fuscicollis tend to avoid burrow areas. We evaluated the effect of human recreational activities on shorebirds, taking into account shorebird–crab interaction, during shorebird migratory periods (November to April) of 2001, 2002, and 2003. This study was performed at the Mar Chiquita coastal lagoon (37° 40′ S, Argentina). Results showed that people only rarely used the extensive soft bottom intertidals dominated by burrowing assemblages of N. granulata because the soft sediments make walking difficult. Therefore, human impact is reduced for the two-banded plover. However, for several migratory shorebirds that also avoid burrow areas, these areas act as suboptimal alternative areas when human impact is important in their preferred habitats. When human activity is low, shorebirds remain foraging in the area but they decrease their feeding intakes. The extensions of burrow areas differ among estuaries and are likely to generate between-estuaries differences as stopover sites for shorebirds. Also, other species that form large burrowing assemblages can have a similar impact on shorebird–human interactions.     

Water balance in the playa-lakes of an arid environment,Monegros, NE Spain

The playa-lakes of the Monegros desert in north-east Spain are saline wetlands in an arid environment, a rare phenomenon in Europe. These extremely valuable habitats are threatened by changes associated with agricultural expansion and incorporation of new irrigated areas. An understanding of the present hydrologic regime will enable changes to be identified, particularly those brought about by flooding and pollution caused by irrigation surplus. This study sets out to show the results of applying a daily water balance in three selected playa-lakes. The balance was in two parts and consisted of: (1) the average balance for all the endorheic basin using the BALAN_11 program, and (2) the water balance in some playa-lakes, applying discharge flows obtained from the previous balance. The resulting volumes of water were converted to water depths and contrasted with reference volumes taken from field and Landsat images. The model was calibrated by applying various hypotheses of function which enabled the results to be adjusted. The proposed balance is an acceptable reproduction of field water measurements during this period, and underlines the consistency of the conceptual model. The methodology used is appropriate for understanding the playa-lakes function and for monitoring them for conservation purposes.     

Hydrogeochemistry and isotope analyses used to determine groundwater recharge and flow in low-gradient catchments of the province of Buenos Aires,Argentina

The region known as Pampa Plain, in Argentina, is a vast area characterized by slopes of less than 0.05%. The surface sediment is silty sand, mainly Aeolian, referred to as Pampean Loess, which is a phreatic aquifer unit of utmost importance for the water supply of the region. On account of the slight gradient, hydrogeological analyses using only hydraulic measurements are difficult to perform, often leading to confusing results. Thus, the study presented relies on hydrochemical modeling and isotopic determinations as well. The study area comprises three catchments in the inter-mountainous area corresponding to El Moro, Tamangueyú and Seco creeks, and covering 2,570 km² in the province of Buenos Aires. Measurements of piezometric levels and samples of groundwater, surface water and rainwater were carried out between January and March 2005. Major ion results were analyzed by means of hydrochemical graphs and hydrogeochemical modelling using NETPATH. The resulting data show that it is possible to identify local changes in recharge, flow direction and stream/groundwater relationship by using hydrochemical and isotopic information, which may become a useful and more precise tool for the study of particularly flat landscapes.     

Sediment Organic Carbon in Todos Santos Bay, Baja California, Mexico

Sediment grain size and organic carbon (OC) data collected over the past 50 years, together with δ¹³C values of OC in recently collected samples, were analyzed to improve understanding of sediment OC distribution and abundance in Todos Santos Bay. Sediments in the submarine canyon at the mouth of the bay and in quiet-water locations along the shore are fine grained, high in OC, and have generally low δ¹³C values; sediments in high-energy environments are low in OC and have high δ¹³C values. A bivariate isotopic mixing model indicates that none of the sediments contain >50% terrigenous OC (average ~30%), and that the terrigenous OC content of the sediments is a small proportion of the OC content of local soils. Sediment OC composition is apparently controlled by energy-related sorting and deposition, oxidation of much of the original terrigenous OC, and replacement of some terrigenous OC by marine OC.     

The GEM project: An international collaboration to survey galactic radiation emission

The GEM (Galactic Emission Mapping) project is an international collaboration established with the aim of surveying the full sky at long wavelengths with a multi-frequency radio telescope. A total of 745 hours of observation at 408 MHz were completed from an Equatorial site in Colombia. The observations cover the celestial band 0 ^h <<24 ^h , and –24° 22<<+35° 37. Preliminary results of this partial survey will be discussed. A review of the instrumental setup and a 10° resolution sky map at 408 MHz is presented.Presented by S. Torres at the UN/ESA Workshop on Basic Space Sciences: From Small Telescopes to Space Missions, Colombo, Sri Lanka 11–14 January 1996