Statistical forecast of the marine surge

Natural Hazards - This paper studies different machine learning methods for solving the regression problem of estimating the marine surge value given meteorological data. The marine surge is...     

Influence of the sediment delivery ratio index on the analysis of silting and break risk in the Plasencia reservoir (Central System,Spain)

The random forest method was used to generate susceptibility maps for debris flows, rock slides, and active layer detachment slides in the Donjek River area within the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor, based on an inventory of landslides compiled by the Geological Survey of Canada in collaboration with the Yukon Geological Survey. The aim of this study is to develop data-driven landslide susceptibility models which can provide information on risk assessment to existing and planned infrastructure. The factors contributing to slope failure used in the models include slope angle, slope aspect, plan and profile curvatures, bedrock geology, surficial geology, proximity to faults, permafrost distribution, vegetation distribution, wetness index, and proximity to drainage system. A total of 83 debris flow deposits, 181 active layer detachment slides, and 104 rock slides were compiled in the landslide inventory. The samples representing the landslide free zones were randomly selected. The ratio of landslide/landslide free zones was set to 1:1 and 1:2 to examine the results of different sample ratios on the classification. Two-thirds of the samples for each landslide type were used in the classification, and the remaining 1/3 were used to evaluate the results. In addition to the classification maps, probability maps were also created, which served as the susceptibility maps for debris flows, rock slides, and active layer detachment slides. Success and prediction rate curves created to evaluate the performance of the resulting models indicate a high performance of the random forest in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

Groundwater characteristics within loessic deposits: the coastal springs of Los Acantilados,Mar del Plata,Argentina

The urban growth of the southern neighborhoods of Mar del Plata City provoked significant changes in the groundwater balance of the loessic sequences. These regional loessic levels with a significant portion of volcanic ash layers were reported subject to fluoride and nitrate concentrations. Residential houses pump from sands located 70 m depth and withdraw the sewages to depths less than 5 m. These effects cause significant local and seasonal (summer) increments of the water table outcropping via springs at certain unconformities of the coastal cliffs. A mathematical model was applied to analyze the water level lowering at the productive levels, while there is a decrease in the quality of the upper levels subject to waste discharges. Much of this groundwater flow is concentrated in unconformities between different types of sediments. Human activities have affected the aquifer dynamics increasing the groundwater pumping rates and the return velocity of the sewages. This should be considered in the management strategies of coastal hydric resources.     

Hydrogeochemistry of fluoride in the Quequen river basin: natural pollutants distribution in the argentine pampa

Fluoride pollution is a widespread problem in Argentina, as it is in many areas of the World. Former investigations have demonstrated that the dissolution of volcanic glass disseminated in the loess-like sediments is the main source of fluoride in the Argentine pampas. Nevertheless, fluoride distribution is erratic and the factors controlling it are not yet well-known. A large amount of hydrochemical data collected in the Quequen Grande river catchment is used in order to contribute to the understanding of fluoride distribution and mobility in groundwater in the Argentine pampas. The Quequen Grande river catchment is 10,000 km². It extends between two low hills ranges of Precambrian metamorphic rocks and sedimentary Paleozoic rocks, filled by a thick sequence of Cenozoic sediments, mainly silts and silt-clayed, with sand layers. These sediments form a multilayer phreatic aquifer, which is recharged from precipitation infiltration, discharging through streams directly into the sea. Fluoride concentration in surface water (n = 353) ranges between 0 and 6.5 mg/l, with an average value of 2.14 mg/l. Groundwater concentration (n = 135) is from 0 up to 5.7 mg/l, with an average of 1.84 mg/l. Considering the statistic distribution of fluoride, two groups of samples can be determined. A dominant group between 0 and 3 mg/l, with a mean value around 1.5 mg/l, corresponding to samples widely distributed in the catchment; and a second one group with fluoride contents between 3 and 6 mg/l, corresponding to a smaller area in the central-west border. Two different sources are proposed. Volcanic glass dissolution is responsible for dominant values in the catchment, while the weathering of biotite from the Paleozoic bedrock can be assumed to account for the higher concentrations in the second group.     

The Removal of Dissolved Metals by Hydroxysulphate Precipitates during Oxidation and Neutralization of Acid Mine Waters, Iberian Pyrite Belt

This study examines the removal of dissolved metals during the oxidation and neutralization of five acid mine drainage (AMD) waters from La Zarza, Lomero, Esperanza, Corta Atalaya and Poderosa mines (Iberian Pyrite Belt, Huelva, Spain). These waters were selected to cover the spectrum of pH (2.2–3.5) and chemical composition (e.g., 319–2,103 mg/L Fe; 2.85–33.3 g/L SO₄⁼) of the IPB mine waters. The experiments were conducted in the laboratory to simulate the geochemical evolution previously recognized in the field. This evolution includes two stages: (1) oxidation of dissolved Fe(II) followed by hydrolysis and precipitation of Fe(III), and (2) progressive pH increase during mixing with fresh waters. Fe(III) precipitates at pH < 3.5 (stages 1 and 2) in the form of schwertmannite, whereas Al precipitates during stage 2 at pH 5.0 in the form of several hydroxysulphates of variable composition (hydrobasaluminite, basaluminite, aluminite). During these stages, trace elements are totally or partially sorbed and/or coprecipitated at different rates depending basically on pH, as well as on the activity of the SO₄⁼ anion (which determines the speciation of metals). The general trend for the metals which are chiefly present as aqueous free cations (Pb²⁺, Zn²⁺, Cu²⁺, Cd²⁺, Mn²⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺) is a progressive sorption at increasing pH. On the other hand, As and V (mainly present as anionic species) are completely scavenged during the oxidation stage at pH < 3.5. In waters with high activities (> 10⁻¹) of the SO ₄⁼ ion, some elements like Al, Zn, Cd, Pb and U can also form anionic bisulphate complexes and be significantly sorbed at pH < 5. The removal rates at pH 7.0 range from around 100% for As, V, Cu and U, and 60–80% for Pb, to less than 20% for Zn, Co, Ni and Mn. These processes of metal removal represent a significant mechanism of natural attenuation in the IPB.     

Trace elements in Holocene sediments of the southern Doñana National Park (SW Spain): historical pollution and applications

The multidisciplinary analysis of core sediments from Doñana National Park, south Spain, permits to delimitate both the paleoenvironmental changes and the geochemical evolution of this area during the Holocene. In a first phase (10–6.5 kyr cal), this area was occupied by freshwater/brackish marshes with periodical alternation of dry periods and humid intervals. In a second phase, these marshes were inundated during the Flandrian transgression (~6.5 kyr cal), with the deposition of bioclastic sands. The third phase (6.5–3.6 kyr cal) is characterized by the transition to an old lagoon, with unpolluted, bottom sediments. The geochemical concentrations of these clayey sediments can be used as a geochemical background for present-day and future environmental evaluations of this area. In the following 600 years approximately, two tsunamis caused the partial infilling of this area with bioclastic, marine sediments. In the interval comprised between these two tsunamis, this lagoon was polluted with heavy metals derived from historical mining activities. This environmental contamination represents one of the oldest evidences of mining pollution in the world (>3 kyr cal BP).     

Mangrove ecology,aquatic primary productivity,and fish community dynamics in the Teacapán-Agua Brava Lagoon-Estuarine system (Mexican Pacific)

Aquatic primary productivity, mangrove ecology, and fish community dynamics were investigated in the Teacapán-Agua Brava lagoon-estuarine system, the most extensive mangrove ecosystem on the Pacific coast of Mexico with three species of mangroves distributed heterogeneously (Laguncularia racemosa, Rhizophora mangle, andAvicennia germinans). Tree density was 3,203 trees ha^?1 and basal area was 14.0 m² ha^?1. Litterfall was 1,417 g m^?2 yr^?1, characteristic of a productive riverine forest. The degradation constant forLaguncularia racemosa leaves varied from 1.71 to 4.7 yr^?1 and mean annual net aquatic productivity was 0.41 g C m^?3 d^?1. There were high concentrations of humic substances (up to 150 mg l^?1) early in the wet season. Seasonal variations of the above parameters seemed closely related to the ecology of fish populations. There were 75 fish species distributed in two principal assemblages associated with wet and dry seasons. Diversity and biomass analysis indicated 18 dominant species. Total biomass of the community in this coastal system was estimated at 10 g wet wt m^?2. The highest biomass occurred in the wet season. The most common fish species wereMugil curema, Achirus mazatlanus, Galeichthys caerulescens, Arius liropus, Diapterus peruvianus, Lile stolifera, Centropomus robalito, andEucinostomus sp., all of which have fishery importance. Primary productivity and fish community ecology are controlled by habitat characteristics, river discharge, and climatic seasonality.     

Relationship between climate change and vegetation distribution in the Mediterranean mountains: Manzanares Head valley, Sierra De Guadarrama (Central Spain)

This work analyzes the consequences of climate change in the distribution of the Mediterranean high-mountain vegetation. A study area was chosen at the Sierra de Guadarrama, in the center of the Iberian Peninsula (1,795 to 2,374 m asl). Climate change was analyzed from the record of 18 variables regarding temperature, rainfall and snowfall over the period 1951–2000. The permanence of snow cover (1996–2004), landforms stability and vegetation distribution in 5 years (1956, 1972, 1984, 1991 and 1998) were all analyzed. The Nival Correlation Level of the different vegetation classes was determined through their spatial and/or temporal relationship with several climatologic variables, snow cover duration and landforms. In order to quantify trends and major change processes, areas and percent changes were calculated, as well as Mean Annual Transformation Indices and Transition Matrices. The findings reveal that in the first part of the study period (up to the first half of the 1970s) the temperature rise in the mid-winter months caused the reduction of some classes of nival vegetation, while others expanded, favored by high rainfall, decrease in both maximum temperatures and summer aridity, and longer snow cover duration. The second part of the study period was characterized by the consolidation of the increase in all thermal variables, along with an important reduction in rainfall volume and snow cover duration. As a result, herbaceous plants, which are highly correlated with a long snow permanence and abundance of melting water, have been replaced by leguminous shrubs which grow away from the influence of snow, and which are steadily becoming denser.     

Analysis of the precipitation and cloudiness associated with COLs occurrence in the Iberian Peninsula

Summary The Iberian Peninsula is one of the regions in the world with higher occurrence of cut-off low systems (COL). The aim of this paper is to analyse the weather events (rainfall and cloudiness layer) associated to COLs in the Iberian Peninsula with tools not previously used: (a) the use of the new multidecadal COLs database developed by Nieto et al (2005) that permit us to study a 41 years period (1958–1998), (b) the checking of the expected weather events (rainfall and cloudiness layer) associated with COLs in a conceptual model (Winkler et al, 2005) and (c) the extensive use of radiosoundings to analyse convective instability in areas inside and close to the COL. Two points of view are used to make the analysis: (1) a source oriented method, when a particular COL is followed and its associated precipitation and cloudiness is analysed over four quadrants in which Iberia was divided and (2) a receptor oriented method, when the precipitation associated to COLs is analysed in given areas, defined by patterns of precipitation. Results reveal that the precipitation and cloudiness patterns associated to COLs in the conceptual model reproduce quite well the main characteristics found over the Iberian Peninsula. The generalized idea that most of the COLs produce intense convective rainfall is show to be misleading. Convective phenomena are important usually when the centre of the COL is located on the Mediterranean region. Most of the rainfall associated with COLs comes from the baroclinic shield; specially in cases located over the west half of the Iberian Peninsula. It is shown that nearly 30% of COLs do not induce any rainfall; most of them located in the southern half of the Peninsula, and mainly during autumn. Only 30% of COLs produce generalized rainfall over the whole analysed territory, being most of them (about 90%) located over the western half of the Iberian Peninsula.