Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in South Korea using peaks-over-threshold and annual maxima

The conventional approach to the frequency analysis of extreme precipitation is complicated by non-stationarity resulting from climate variability and change. This study utilized a non-stationary frequency analysis to better understand the time-varying behavior of short-duration (1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h) precipitation extremes at 65 weather stations scattered across South Korea. Trends in precipitation extremes were diagnosed with respect to both annual maximum precipitation (AMP) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) extremes. Non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with model parameters made a linear function of time were applied to AMP and POT respectively. Trends detected using the Mann–Kendall test revealed that the stations showing an increasing trend in AMP extremes were concentrated in the mountainous areas (the northeast and southwest regions) of South Korea. Trend tests on POT extremes provided fairly different results, with a significantly reduced number of stations showing an increasing trend and with some stations showing a decreasing trend. For most of stations showing a statistically significant trend, non-stationary GEV and GPD models significantly outperformed their stationary counterparts, particularly for precipitation extremes with shorter durations. Due to a significant-increasing trend in the POT frequency found at a considerable number of stations (about 10 stations for each rainfall duration), the performance of modeling POT extremes was further improved with a non-homogeneous Poisson model. The large differences in design storm estimates between stationary and non-stationary models (design storm estimates from stationary models were significantly lower than the estimates of non-stationary models) demonstrated the challenges in relying on the stationary assumption when planning the design and management of water facilities. This study also highlighted the need of caution when quantifying design storms from POT and AMP extremes by showing a large discrepancy between the estimates from those two approaches.     

Data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter in a numerical model of the North Sea

Coastal management and maritime safety strongly rely on accurate representations of the sea state. Both dynamical models and observations provide abundant pieces of information. However, none of them provides the complete picture. The assimilation of observations into models is one way to improve our knowledge of the ocean state. Its application in coastal models remains challenging because of the wide range of temporal and spatial variabilities of the processes involved. This study investigates the assimilation of temperature profiles with the ensemble Kalman filter in 3-D North Sea simulations. The model error is represented by the standard deviation of an ensemble of model states. Parameters’ values for the ensemble generation are first computed from the misfit between the data and the model results without assimilation. Then, two square root algorithms are applied to assimilate the data. The impact of data assimilation on the simulated temperature is assessed. Results show that the ensemble Kalman filter is adequate for improving temperature forecasts in coastal areas, under adequate model error specification.     

Dynamic behavior of buildings with non-uniform stiffness along their height assessed through coupled flexural and shear beams

A novel model for assessing building behavior has been developed by coupling a Bernoulli beam with a quartic stiffness variation and a shear beam with a parabolic stiffness variation, trends that are expected in buildings designed for earthquake actions. Then the partial differential equation of motion governing the behavior of the model has been solved, obtaining analytic expressions (Closed form solutions) for mode shapes in terms of Legendre functions. These closed form solutions were validated with finite element model analyses and effects of non-uniformity of stiffness were assessed in a generalized manner. It was found that period lengthening is mild for the first mode, but for higher modes can be far more noticeable if shear stiffness at beam top is <20 % of its base value. Mode shapes also change notoriously for reductions beyond the same limit, potentially inducing large floor acceleration demands at unexpected locations. Also it was found that drift demands can be noticeably enhanced even if shear stiffness at top is 75 % of the base value, in what would be considered uniform buildings. This model has several applications for assessing the response or large stocks of buildings, calibrate complex models, assess damage on building contents, establishing in short time damage scenarios for large cities, and could be helpful for education, as emphasis is brought back on fundamental concepts.     

Graphical tools based on Turc-Budyko plots to detect changes in catchment behaviour

Abstract

This paper aims at revisiting the use of non-dimensional representations for catchment change and model robustness analysis. As well as being helpful for catchment classification according to hydroclimatic conditions, the Turc-Budyko representation enables visualization of temporal changes in these conditions and/or modification of the hydrological behaviour of the catchment. This brings a new perspective to hydrological analysis, different from the classical time series plots, which helps when interpreting catchment functioning with respect to hydroclimatic constraints. These tools do not require statistical analyses of observed series and are therefore very simple to implement. Four case studies are considered here to illustrate the use of the Q/P = f(P/E_p) graph. When combined with the inter-annual Turc-Mezentsev formula, this visual framework enables anticipation of potential difficulties for models based on the same hypotheses, solely using the analysis of observed data.     

Analytical study of the energy rate balance equation for the magnetospheric storm-ring current

We present some results of the analytical integration of the energy rate balance equation, assuming that the input energy rate is proportional to the azimuthal interplanetary electric field, E_y, and can be described by simple rectangular or triangular functions, as approximations to the frequently observed shapes of E_y, especially during the passage of magnetic clouds. The input function is also parametrized by a reconnection-transfer efficiency factor (which is assumed to vary between 0.1 and 1). Our aim is to solve the balance equation and derive values for the decay parameter compatible with the observed Dst peak values. To facilitate the analytical integration we assume a constant value for through the main phase of the storm. The model is tested for two isolated and well-monitored intense storms. For these storms the analytical results are compared to those obtained by the numerical integration of the balance equation, based on the interplanetary data collected by the ISEE-3 satellite, with the values parametrized close to those obtained by the analytical study. From the best fit between this numerical integration and the observed Dst the most appropriate values of are then determined. Although we specifically focus on the main phase of the storms, this numerical integration has been also extended to the recovery phase by an independent adjust. The results of the best fit for the recovery phase show that the values of may differ drastically from those corresponding to the main phase. The values of the decay parameter for the main phase of each event, _m, are found to be very sensitive to the adopted efficiency factor, , decreasing as this factor increases. For the recovery phase, which is characterized by very low values of the power input, the response function becomes almost independent of the value of and the resulting values for the decay time parameter, _r, do not vary greatly as varies. As a consequence, the relative values of between the main and the recovery phase, _m/_r, can be greater or smaller than one as varies from 0.1 to 1.     

Paired 10Be sampling of polished bedrock and erratic boulders to improve dating of glacial landforms: an example from the Western Alps

Cosmogenic nuclide dating of glacial landforms may lead to ambiguous results for ice retreat histories. The persistence of significant cosmogenic concentrations inherited from previous exposure may increase the apparent exposure ages for polished bedrocks affected by limited erosion under ice and for erratic boulders transported by glaciers and previously exposed in high-altitude rock walls. In contrast, transient burying by moraines, sediments and snow decreases the apparent exposure age. We propose a new sampling strategy, applied to four sites distributed in the Arc and Arve valleys in the Western Alps, to better constrain the factors that can bias exposure ages associated with glacial processes. We used the terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide ¹⁰Be (TCN) to estimate the exposure time from paired sampling of depth profiles in polished bedrock and on overlying erratic boulders. For a given sampling site, the exposure ages for both the polished bedrock and boulder are expected to be the same. However, in six cases out of seven, boulders had significantly higher ¹⁰Be surface concentrations than those of the associated polished surfaces. In present and past glacial processes, the ¹⁰Be distribution with depth for boulders and bedrocks implies the presence of an inheritance concentration of ¹⁰Be. Our study suggests that ¹⁰Be concentrations in erratic boulders and in polished bedrocks provide maximum and minimum exposure ages of the glacial retreat, respectively. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Surficial fractures in the Navajo sandstone,south-western USA: the roles of thermal cycles,rainstorms, granular disintegration,and iterative cracking

Deep (> 5 m) sheeting fractures in the Navajo sandstone are evident at numerous sites in southern Utah and derive from tectonic stresses. Strong diurnal thermal cycles are, however, the likely triggers for shallow (< 0.3 m) sheeting fractures. Data from subsurface thermal sensors reveal that large temperature differences between sensors at 2 and 15 cm depth on clear summer afternoons are as great as those that trigger sheeting fractures in exposed California granite. Extensive polygonal patterns in the Navajo sandstone are composed of surface-perpendicular fractures and were produced by contractile stresses. Numerous studies have shown that porewater diminishes the tensile strength of sandstone. Based on our thermal records, we propose that cooling during monsoonal rainstorms triggers polygonal fracturing of temporarily weakened rock. On steep outcrops, polygonal patterns are rectilinear and orthogonal, with T-vertices. Lower-angle slopes host hexagonal patterns (defined by the dominance of Y-vertices). Intermediate patterns with rectangles and hexagons of similar scale are common. We posit that outcropping fractures are advancing downward by iterative steps, and that hexagons on sandstone surfaces (like prismatic columns of basalt) have evolved from ancestral orthogonal polygons of similar scale. In lava flows, fractures elongate intermittently as they follow a steep thermal gradient (the source of stress) as it rapidly moves through the rock mass. In our model, a steep, surficial thermal gradient descends through unfractured sandstone, but at the slow pace of granular disintegration. Through time, as the friable rock on stable slopes erodes, iterative cracking advances into new space. Hexagonal patterns form as new fractures, imperfectly guided by the older ones, propagate in new directions, and vertices drift into a configuration that minimizes the ratio of fracture length to polygon area. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using visibility analysis to improve point density and processing time of SfM-MVS techniques for 3D reconstruction of landforms

Image network geometry, including the number and orientation of images, impacts the error, coverage, and processing time of 3D terrain mapping performed using structure-from-motion and multiview-stereo (SfM-MVS). Few studies have quantified trade-offs in error and processing time or ways to optimize image acquisition in diverse topographic conditions. Here, we determine suitable camera locations for image acquisition by minimizing the occlusion produced by topography. Viewshed analysis is used to select the suitable images, which requires a preliminary digital elevation model (DEM), potential camera locations, and sensor parameters. One aerial and two ground-based image collections were used to analyse differences between SfM-MVS models produced using: (1) all available images (ALL); (2) images selected using conventional methods (CON); and (3) images selected using the viewshed analysis (VIEW). The resulting models were compared with benchmark point clouds acquired by a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) and TLS-derived DEMs. The VIEW datasets produced denser point clouds (28–32% more points) and DEMs with up to 66% reduction in error compared with CON datasets due to reduction of gaps in the DEM. VIEW datasets reduced processing time by 37–76% compared with ALL, with no reduction in coverage or increase in error. DEMs produced with ALL and VIEW datasets had similar slope and roughness, while slight differences that may be locally important were observed for the CON dataset. The new method helps optimize SfM-MVS image collection strategies that significantly reduce the number of images required with minimal loss in coverage or accuracy over complex surfaces. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strong slope-aspect control of regolith thickness by bedrock foliation

The porous near-surface layer of the Earth's crust – the critical zone – constitutes a vital reservoir of water for ecosystems, provides baseflow to streams, guides recharge to deep aquifers, filters contaminants from groundwater, and regulates the long-term evolution of landscapes. Recent work suggests that the controls on regolith thickness include climate, tectonics, lithology, and vegetation. However, the relative paucity of observations of regolith structure and properties at landscape scales means that theoretical models of critical zone structure are incompletely tested. Here we present seismic refraction and electrical resistivity surveys that thoroughly characterize subsurface structure in a small catchment in the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona, USA, where slope-aspect effects on regolith structure are expected based on differences in vegetation. Our results show a stark contrast in physical properties and inferred regolith thickness on opposing slopes, but in the opposite sense of that expected from environmental models and observed vegetation patterns. Although vegetation (as expressed by normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) is denser on the north-facing slope, regolith on the south-facing slope is four times thicker (as indicated by lower seismic velocities and resistivities). This contrast cannot be explained by variations in topographic stress or conventional hillslope morphology models. Instead, regolith thickness appears to be controlled by metamorphic foliation: regolith is thicker where foliation dips into the topography, and thinner where foliation is nearly parallel to the surface. We hypothesize that, in this catchment, hydraulic conductivity and infiltration capacity control weathering: infiltration is hindered and regolith is thin where foliation is parallel to the surface topography, whereas water infiltrates deeper and regolith is thicker where foliation intersects topography at a substantial angle. These results suggest that bedrock foliation, and perhaps by extension sedimentary layering, can control regolith thickness and must be accounted for in models of critical zone development. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.