Amphibole as an archivist of magmatic crystallization conditions: problems,potential, and implications for inferring magma storage prior to the paroxysmal 2010 eruption of Mount Merapi,Indonesia

Amphibole is widely employed to calculate crystallization temperature and pressure, although its potential as a geobarometer has always been debated. Recently, Ridolfi et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 160:45–66, 2010) and Ridolfi and Renzulli (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:877–895, 2012) have presented calibrations for calculating temperature, pressure, fO₂, melt H₂O, and melt major and minor oxide composition from amphibole with a large compositional range. Using their calibrations, we have (i) calculated crystallization conditions for amphibole from eleven published experimental studies to examine the problems and the potential of the new calibrations; and (ii) calculated crystallization conditions for amphibole from basaltic–andesitic pyroclasts erupted during the paroxysmal 2010 eruption of Mount Merapi in Java, Indonesia, to infer pre-eruptive conditions. Our comparison of experimental and calculated values shows that calculated crystallization temperatures are reasonable estimates. Calculated fO₂ and melt SiO₂ content yields potentially useful estimates at moderately reduced to moderately oxidized conditions and intermediate to felsic melt compositions. However, calculated crystallization pressure and melt H₂O content are untenable estimates that largely reflect compositional variation in the crystallizing magmas and crystallization temperature and not the calculated parameters. Amphibole from Merapi’s pyroclasts yields calculated conditions of ~200–800 MPa, ~900–1,050 °C, ~NNO + 0.3–NNO + 1.1, ~3.7–7.2 wt% melt H₂O, and ~58–71 wt% melt SiO₂. We interpret the variations in calculated temperature, fO₂, and melt SiO₂ content as reasonable estimates, but conclude that the large calculated pressure variation for amphibole from Merapi and many other arc volcanoes is evidence for thorough mixing of mafic to felsic magmas and not necessarily evidence for crystallization over a large depth range. In contrast, bimodal pressure estimates obtained for other arc magmas reflect amphibole crystallization from mafic and more evolved magmas, respectively, and should not necessarily be taken as evidence for crystallization in two reservoirs at variable depth.     

Study of sporadic-E clouds by backscatter radar

It is shown that swept-frequency backscatter ionograms covering a range of azimuths can be used to study the dynamics of sporadic-E clouds. A simple technique based on analytic ray tracing can be used to simulate the observed narrow traces associated with E_s patches. This enables the location and extent of the sporadic-E clouds to be determined. The motion of clouds can then be determined from a time sequence of records. In order to demonstrate the method, results are presented from an initial study of 5 days of backscatter ionograms from the Jindalee Stage B data base obtained during March-April 1990. Usually 2–3 clouds were observed each day, mainly during the evening and up to midnight. The clouds lasted from 1–4 h and extended between 30°–80° in azimuth and 150–800 km in range. The clouds were mostly stationary or drifted generally westward with velocities of up to 80 ms^–1. Only one cloud was observed moving eastward.     

The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations

A large spread exists in both Indian and Australian average monsoon rainfall and in their interannual variations diagnosed from various observational and reanalysis products. While the multi model mean monsoon rainfall from 59 models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) fall within the observational uncertainty, considerable model spread exists. Rainfall seasonality is consistent across observations and reanalyses, but most CMIP models produce either a too peaked or a too flat seasonal cycle, with CMIP5 models generally performing better than CMIP3. Considering all North-Australia rainfall, most models reproduce the observed Australian monsoon-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection, with the strength of the relationship dependent on the strength of the simulated ENSO. However, over the Maritime Continent, the simulated monsoon-ENSO connection is generally weaker than observed, depending on the ability of each model to realistically reproduce the ENSO signature in the Warm Pool region. A large part of this bias comes from the contribution of Papua, where moisture convergence seems to be particularly affected by this SST bias. The Indian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship is affected by overly persistent ENSO events in many CMIP models. Despite significant wind anomalies in the Indian Ocean related to Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, the monsoon-IOD relationship remains relatively weak both in the observations and in the CMIP models. Based on model fidelity in reproducing realistic monsoon characteristics and ENSO teleconnections, we objectively select 12 “best” models to analyze projections in the rcp8.5 scenario. Eleven of these models are from the CMIP5 ensemble. In India and Australia, most of these models produce 5–20 % more monsoon rainfall over the second half of the twentieth century than during the late nineteenth century. By contrast, there is no clear model consensus over the Maritime Continent.     

On the energy integral for first post-Newtonian approximation

The post-Newtonian approximation for general relativity is widely adopted by the geodesy and astronomy communities. It has been successfully exploited for the inclusion of relativistic effects in practically all geodetic applications and techniques such as satellite/lunar laser ranging and very long baseline interferometry. Presently, the levels of accuracy required in geodetic techniques require that reference frames, planetary and satellite orbits and signal propagation be treated within the post-Newtonian regime. For arbitrary scalar W and vector gravitational potentials \(W^j (j=1,2,3)\), we present a novel derivation of the energy associated with a test particle in the post-Newtonian regime. The integral so obtained appears not to have been given previously in the literature and is deduced through algebraic manipulation on seeking a Jacobi-like integral associated with the standard post-Newtonian equations of motion. The new integral is independently verified through a variational formulation using the post-Newtonian metric components and is subsequently verified by numerical integration of the post-Newtonian equations of motion.     

Land-based activities: what remains to be done

The Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities (GPA) represents an ambitious attempt to make the leap between the rhetoric of protecting and preserving the marine environment and action. With degradation of the marine environment from land based activities posing one of the most serious threats to the quality and productivity of the coastal and marine environment, the GPA can only be viewed as a milestone rather than a destination, as so much work remains to be done in this field.States supporting the GPA are entering the most challenging phase of the program, that of implementation. But the international community in taking on this challenge is not without a few signposts. The failure of the Montreal Guidelines to be implemented, provides States with many important lessons. This paper suggests that if the GPA is to have an impact on the complex problem of land-based activities then several tasks need to be grappled with. Substantial financial support needs to be generated, a proactive and cooperative secretariat established and the nexus between the GPA and United Nations Environment Programme Regional Seas Programme examined. The importance of people and training to the capacity building process needs to be recognised and a wider variety of stakeholders engaged in the follow up phase. Pivotal to the aforementioned is the need to generate political will to address the problem, without which the GPA will become yet another dusty volume on the bookshelf.     

A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF MISSING SPATIAL DATA USING A FIRST-ORDER MARKOV MODEL*

Geographical data sets sometimes contain missing observations that need to be estimated. A statistical approach to the problem is discussed for multivariate normal spatial data sets satisfying the first-order spatial Markov property with constant mean, where the information at neighboring or contiguous observed sites is used to estimate the missing values. The completed data are used to estimate the parameters of the distribution. The procedure is iterative. The approach is a special case of the Orchard and Woodbury missing information principle. The paper concludes with an illustrative empirical example using rainfall data from an area of Kansas and Nebraska. The quality of the estimates for different sites are compared.     

Numerical Simulation of a Solar Active Region. I: Bastille Day Flare

We present three-dimensional unsteady modeling and numerical simulations of a coronal active region, carried out within the compressible single-fluid MHD approximation. We focus on AR 9077 on 14 July 2000, and the triggering of the X5.7 GOES X-ray class “Bastille Day” flare. We simulate only the lower corona, although we include a virtual photosphere and chromosphere below. The boundary conditions at the base of this layer are set using temperature maps from line intensities and line-of-sight magnetograms (SOHO/MDI). From the latter, we generate vector magnetograms using the force-free approximation; these vector magnetograms are then used to produce the boundary condition on the velocity field using a minimum energy principle (Longcope, Astrophys. J. 612, 1181, 2004). The reconnection process is modeled through a dynamical hyper-resistivity which is activated when the current exceeds a critical value (Klimas et al., J. Geophys. Res. 109, 2218, 2004). Comparing the time series of X-ray fluxes recorded by GOES with modeled time series of various mean physical variables such as current density, Poynting energy flux, or radiative loss inside the active region, we can demonstrate that the model properly captures the evolution of an active region over a day and, in particular, is able to explain the initiation of the flare at the observed time.     

Surface wave array tomography in SE Tibet from ambient seismic noise and two-station analysis – II. Crustal and upper-mantle structure

We determine the 3-D shear wave speed variations in the crust and upper mantle in the southeastern borderland of the Tibetan Plateau, SW China, with data from 25 temporary broad-band stations and one permanent station. Interstation Rayleigh wave (phase velocity) dispersion curves were obtained at periods from 10 to 50 s from empirical Green's function (EGF) derived from (ambient noise) interferometry and from 20 to 150 s from traditional two-station (TS) analysis. Here, we use these measurements to construct phase velocity maps (from 10 to 150 s, using the average interstation dispersion from the EGF and TS methods between 20 and 50 s) and estimate from them (with the Neighbourhood Algorithm) the 3-D wave speed variations and their uncertainty. The crust structure, parametrized in three layers, can be well resolved with a horizontal resolution about of 100 km or less. Because of the possible effect of mechanically weak layers on regional deformation, of particular interest is the existence and geometry of low (shear) velocity layers (LVLs). In some regions prominent LVLs occur in the middle crust, in others they may appear in the lower crust. In some cases the lateral transition of shear wave speed coincides with major fault zones. The spatial variation in strength and depth of crustal LVLs suggests that the 3-D geometry of weak layers is complex and that unhindered crustal flow over large regions may not occur. Consideration of such complexity may be the key to a better understanding of relative block motion and patterns of seismicity.