Development of an operational low-flow index for hydrological drought monitoring over Europe

Near real-time monitoring of hydrological drought requires the implementation of an index capable of capturing the dynamic nature of the phenomenon. Starting from a dataset of modelled daily streamflow data, a low-flow index was developed based on the total water deficit of the discharge values below a certain threshold. In order to account for a range of hydrological regimes, a daily 95th percentile threshold was adopted, which was computed by means of a 31-day moving window. The observed historical total water deficits were statistically fitted by means of the exponential distribution and the corresponding probability values were used as a measure of hydrological drought severity. This approach has the advantage that it directly exploits daily streamflow values, as well as allowing a near real-time update of the index at regular time steps (i.e. 10 days, or dekad). The proposed approach was implemented on discharge data simulated by the LISFLOOD model over Europe during the period 1995–2015; its reliability was tested on four case studies found within the European drought reference database, as well as against the most recent summer drought observed in Central Europe in 2015. These validations, even if only qualitative, highlighted the ability of the index to capture the timing (starting date and duration) of the main historical hydrological drought events, and its good performance in comparison with the commonly used standardized runoff index (SRI). Additionally, the spatial evolution of the most recent event was captured well in a simulated near real-time test case, suggesting the suitability of the index for operational implementation within the European Drought Observatory.     

Modeling the low-latitude ionospheric electron density and plasma turbulence in the November 2004 storm period

The storm period of 8–12 November 2004 offers an opportunity for insight into the phenomena of low-latitude ionospheric structure during geomagnetically disturbed times because of the strength of the disturbances, the timing of the storms, and the instrumentation that was operating during the interval. We will take advantage of these factors to model the ambient ionosphere and the plasma turbulence responsible for radio scintillation within it, using the AFRL low-latitude ambient/turbulent ionospheric model and the storm-time model features described in the companion paper [Retterer, J.M., Kelley, M.C., 2009. Solar-wind drivers for low-latitude ionospheric models during geomagnetic storms. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., this issue]. The model plasma densities show very good agreement with the densities measured by the Jicamarca ISR as well as with the total electron content (TEC) measured by the Boston College South American chain of GPS receivers. The detection by the radar of coherent returns from plasma turbulence match well the times of predicted ionospheric instability. The predicted geographic extent of the occurrence of equatorial plasma bubbles was matched by DMSP satellite observations and our forecasts of scintillation strength were validated with measurements of S4 at Ancon and Antofagasta by stations of the AFRL SCINDA network.     

Motif Discovery on Seismic Amplitude Time Series: The Case Study of Mt Etna 2011 Eruptive Activity

Algorithms searching for similar patterns are widely used in seismology both when the waveforms of the events of interest are known and when there is no a priori-knowledge. Such methods usually make use of the cross-correlation coefficient as a measure of similarity; if there is no a-priori knowledge, they behave as brute-force searching algorithms. The disadvantage of these methods, preventing or limiting their application to very large datasets, is computational complexity. The Mueen–Keogh (MK) algorithm overcomes this limitation by means of two optimization techniques—the early abandoning concept and space indexing. Here, we apply the MK algorithm to amplitude time series retrieved from seismic signals recorded during episodic eruptive activity of Mt Etna in 2011. By adequately tuning the input to the MK algorithm we found eight motif groups characterized by distinct seismic amplitude trends, each related to a different phenomenon. In particular, we observed that earthquakes are accompanied by sharp increases and decreases in seismic amplitude whereas lava fountains are accompanied by slower changes. These results demonstrate that the MK algorithm, because of its particular features, may have wide applicability in seismology.     

Volatile-rich magma injection into the feeding system during the 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna (Italy): its role on explosive activity and change in rheology of lavas

The explosive behavior and the rheology of lavas in basaltic volcanoes, usually driven by differentiation, can also be significantly affected by the kinetics of magma degassing in the upper portion of the feeding system. The complex eruption of 2001 at Mt. Etna, Italy, was marked by two crucial phenomena that occurred at the Laghetto vent on the southern flank of the volcano: 1) intense explosive activity and 2) at the end of the eruption, emission of a lava flow with higher viscosity than flows previously emitted from the same vent. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that these events were driven by the injection of volatile-rich magma into the feeding system. The input and mixing of this magma into a reservoir containing more evolved magma had the twofold effect of increasing 1) the overall concentration of volatiles and 2) their exsolution with consequent efficient vesiculation and degassing. This led to an explosive stage of the eruption, which produced a ~75-m-high cinder cone. Efficient volatile loss and the consequent increase of the liquidus temperature brought about the nucleation of Fe-oxides and other anhydrous crystalline phases, which significantly increased the magma viscosity in the upper part of the conduit, leading to the emission of a high viscosity lava flow that ended the eruption. The 2001 eruption has offered the opportunity to investigate the important role that input of volatile-rich magma may exert in controlling not only the geochemical features of erupted lavas but also the eruption dynamics. These results present a new idea for interpreting similar eruptions in other basaltic volcanoes and explaining eruptions with uncommonly high explosivity when only basic magmas are involved.     

Late Quaternary deformation on the island on Pantelleria: New constraints for the recent tectonic evolution of the Sicily Channel Rift (southern Italy)

Structural observations carried out on the volcanic Island of Pantelleria show that the tectonic setting is dominated by NNE trending normal faults and by NW-striking right-lateral strike-slip faults with normal component of motion controlled by a ≈N 100°E oriented extension. This mode of deformation also controls the development of the eruptive fissures, dykes and eruptive centres along NNE–SSW belts that may thus represent the surface response to crustal cracking with associated magma intrusions. Magmatic intrusions are also responsible for the impressive vertical deformations that affect during the Late Quaternary the south-eastern segment of the island and producing a large dome within the Pantelleria caldera complex. The results of the structural analysis carried out on the Island of Pantelleria also improves the general knowledge on the Late Quaternary tectonics of the entire Sicily Channel. ESE–WNW directed extension, responsible for both the tectonic and volcano-tectonic features of the Pantelleria Island, also characterizes, at a greater scale, the entire channel as shown by available geodetic and seismological data. This mode of extension reactivates the older NW–SE trending fault segments bounding the tectonic troughs of the Channel as right-lateral strike-slip faults and produces new NNE trending pure extensional features (normal faulting and cracking) that preferentially develop at the tip of the major strike-slip fault zones. We thus relate the Late Quaternary volcanism of the Pelagian Block magmatism to dilatational strain on the NNE-striking extensional features that develop on the pre-existing stretched area and propagate throughout the entire continental crust linking the already up-welled mantle with the surface.     

Three-dimensional VP and VP /VS models of the upper crust in the Friuli area (northeastern Italy)

3-D images of P velocity and P - to S -velocity ratio have been produced for the upper crust of the Friuli area (northeastern Italy) using local earthquake tomography. The data consist of 2565 P and 930 S arrival times of high quality. The best-fitting V _P and V _P / V _S 1-D models were computed before the 3-D inversion. V _P was measured on two rock samples representative of the investigated upper layers of the Friuli crust. The tomographic V _P model was used for modelling the gravity anomalies, by converting the velocity values into densities along three vertical cross-sections. The computed gravity anomalies were optimized with respect to the observed gravity anomalies. The crust investigated is characterized by sharp lateral and deep V _P and V _P / V _S anomalies that are associated with the complex geological structure. High V _P / V _S values are associated with highly fractured zones related to the main faulting pattern. The relocated seismicity is generally associated with sharp variations in the V _P / V _S anomalies. The V _P images show a high-velocity body below 6 km depth in the central part of the Friuli area, marked also by strong V _P / V _S heterogeneities, and this is interpreted as a tectonic wedge. Comparison with the distribution of earthquakes supports the hypothesis that the tectonic wedge controls most of the seismicity and can be considered to be the main seismogenic zone in the Friuli area.     

Active thrust tectonics in western Sicily (southern Italy): the 1968 Belice earthquake sequence

The 1968 Belice earthquake sequence, characterized by six main shocks with 5 < M < 5.4, represents the strongest seismic event recorded in western Sicily in historical times. The epicentral area is located in the Belice Valley, a region lacking any topographic lineament likely to result from a fault with significant offsets of any kind. Instrumental data show that hypocentres of the major shocks are distributed along a roughly N-dipping plane extending from about 36 km to 1 km depth. Fault plane solutions show pure thrusting mechanisms on N-dipping, ENE-trending planes, or oblique slip with a right-lateral component of motion along steep WSW-dipping planes, both as a result of approximate N-S shortening. The observed destruction indicates that isoseismal areas are elongated in an ENE direction. Similarly, the epiccntral distribution of events with M ≥ 4 outlines a roughly elliptical ENE-elongated area located 20 km NW of the Sciacca-Rocca Ficuzza thrust front. This ENE-striking structure, representing the regional morphotectonic feature closest to the epicentral area, consists of two main imbricate fan systems. In the southernmost system, Quaternary deposits (tentatively dated as 1.0–0.7 Myr old) are involved in a large ramp anticline uplifting them to a maximum altitude of 346 m. The occurrence of Holocene lacustrine piggy-back basins on the rear of this structure also indicates late Quaternary activity of the underlying thrust. Seismological, structural and morphotectonic observations suggest that multiple ruptures might have occurred during the 1968 sequence on a blind crustal thrust ramp located beneath the epicentral area. Slip propagated southwards along the shallow ramp-flat system characterizing the thin-skinned foreland fold and thrust belt of southwestern Sicily, being dispersed in flexural folding processes and diffuse strain along this path.     

Flood hazards at ford stream crossings on ephemeral channels (south‐east coast of Spain)

Most road‐stream crossings over ephemeral channels are vulnerable to extreme hydrologic events. Ford stream crossings (FSCs) are usually dangerous for the road traffic during periods of high flow, in particular under flash flood conditions. The present paper analyzes the flood hazards on the Mediterranean coast in the Region of Murcia (south‐east Spain), affecting this type of road‐stream crossing over dry channels, according to hydraulic variables and bedload transport rates estimated for discharges at bankfull and flood‐prone stages. Under such conditions, the safety of people and vehicles was obtained using numerical models, developed by previous researchers; in particular, water levels and flow velocities across ford reaches were compared with different trend curves between water depths and corresponding critical velocities for children and adults, and for various prototype vehicles. Specifically, two approaches to assess this type of hazards were proposed: a specific Hydraulic Hazard Index and an algorithm for estimating the flood hazard from criteria of bed stability and bedload transport capacity (Flood Hazard at Fords, FHF). In addition, different exposure levels were established, using a Flood Vulnerability Index, based on the FHF, the road category, and the annual average daily traffic. The FHF model gave the best results with regard to the magnitude of the damage observed in recent flash floods for flow stages similar to those simulated. According to the danger thresholds established for this index, half‐bankfull flows represent here a high risk: 27.3% of FSCs for mini‐cars and 18.2% for large cars. At bankfull, the FHF exhibits very high values for mini‐cars (77.3% of FSCs) and for large passenger vehicles (50% of FSCs), while at the floodprone stage, extreme FHF values are reached for all kinds of vehicles at most of the ford crossings.