The use of the marine biotic index AMBI in the assessment of the ecological status of the Obidos lagoon (Portugal)

This study reports the longitudinal distribution of sediment properties, including inorganic and organic contaminants, and the structure of the benthic community in Obidos lagoon, a coastal system permanently connected to the sea and with negligible freshwater sources. Sediments from the upper to central lagoon consist of fine particles (91%) and from the lower lagoon of sands (94%). Chemical composition is strongly correlated to the percentage of fine particles. Contamination is relatively low in those sediments suggesting the effect of diffuse sources. The increase in organic matter content from down- to upstream areas was associated with the dominance of opportunistic species, while sensitive and indifferent species to organic enrichment were mainly associated to the clean sandy downstream area. The marine biotic index (AMBI) was suitable for the discrimination of the biological and environmental gradients in the Obidos lagoon and was highly related with the gradient of organic matter content in this system.     

The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts

It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts.     

Tectonic significance of the present relief of the Betic Cordillera

Tortonian calcarenites of the Betic Cordillera were deposited in coastal or very shallow marine environments and represent an ideal marker for estimating vertical movements from the late Miocene to the Present. A map showing the heights at which these Tortonian marine rocks are situated has a clear correlation with the present relief, indicating that today's relief has been formed since the Tortonian. There is also a good correlation between present relief and the Bouguer anomaly distribution in the Betic Cordillera, as well as with crustal thickness. Likewise, the present relief is directly related to the geodynamic setting of a horizontal N–S to NNW–SSE compression and an almost perpendicular extension, along with isostatic readjustment, existing in the Betic Cordillera from the Tortonian. As a result of these regional stresses, faults and folds have produced notable vertical movements. The highest rates of uplift of the Betic Cordillera coincide with large antiforms, in particular those of the Sierra Nevada and the Sierra Filabres. Several subsiding sectors also exist (for example, the Granada Basin or the Guadalquivir Basin). The foreland Guadalquivir Basin has a complex history because the uplift in its eastern sector and subsidence in the western sector coexisted during the late Tortonian. Today the whole Betic Cordillera is characterized by differential regional uplift, even in the aforementioned subsiding sectors.     

Ocean–atmosphere coupling and the boreal winter MJO

The influence of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the simulation and prediction of the boreal winter Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined using the Seoul National University coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and atmospheric—only model (AGCM). The AGCM is forced with daily SSTs interpolated from pentad mean CGCM SSTs. Forecast skill is examined using serial extended simulations spanning 26 different winter seasons with 30-day forecasts commencing every 5 days providing a total of 598 30-day simulations. By comparing both sets of experiments, which share the same atmospheric components, the influence of coupled ocean–atmosphere processes on the simulation and prediction of MJO can be studied. The mean MJO intensity possesses more realistic amplitude in the CGCM than in AGCM. In general, the ocean–atmosphere coupling acts to improve the simulation of the spatio-temporal evolution of the eastward propagating MJO and the phase relationship between convection (OLR) and SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. Both the CGCM and observations exhibit a near-quadrature relationship between OLR and SST, with the former lagging by about two pentads. However, the AGCM shows a less realistic phase relationship. As the initial conditions are the same in both models, the additional forcing by SST anomalies in the CGCM extends the prediction skill beyond that of the AGCM. To test the applicability of the CGCM to real-time prediction, we compute the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and compared it with the index computed from observations. RMM1 (RMM2) falls away rapidly to 0.5 after 17–18 (15–16) days in the AGCM and 18–19 (16–17) days in the CGCM. The prediction skill is phase dependent in both the CGCM and AGCM.     

Objective probabilities about future climate are a matter of opinion

In this paper, the unfeasibility of producing “objective” probabilistic climate change scenarios is discussed. Realizing that the knowledge of “true” probabilities of the different scenarios and temperature changes is unachievable, the objective must be to find the probabilities that are the most consistent with what our state of knowledge and expert judgment are. Therefore, subjective information plays, and should play, a crucial role. A new methodology, based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, is proposed for constructing probabilistic climate change scenarios when only partial information is available. The objective is to produce relevant information for decision-making according to different agents’ judgment and subjective beliefs. These estimates have desirable properties such as: they are the least biased estimate possible on the available information; maximize the uncertainty (entropy) subject to the partial information that is given; The maximum entropy distribution assigns a positive probability to every event that is not excluded by the given information; no possibility is ignored. The probabilities obtained in this manner are the best predictions possible with the state of knowledge and subjective information that is available. This methodology allows distinguishing between reckless and cautious positions regarding the climate change threat.     

Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time

Savannas constitute the most fire-prone vegetation type on earth and are a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Most savanna fires are lit by people for a variety of livelihood applications. ‘Savanna burning’ is an accountable activity under the Kyoto Protocol, but only Australia, as a developed economy, accounts for emissions from this source in its national accounts. Over the past decade considerable effort has been given to developing savanna burning projects in northern Australia, combining customary indigenous (Aboriginal) approaches to landscape-scale fire management with development of scientifically robust emissions accounting methodologies. Formal acceptance by the Australian Government of that methodology, and its inclusion in Australia’s developing emissions trading scheme, paves the way for Aboriginal people to commercially benefit from savanna burning projects. The paper first describes this Australian experience, and then explores options for implementing community-based savanna burning emissions reduction projects in other continental savanna settings, specifically in Namibia and Venezuela. These latter examples illustrate that savanna fire management approaches potentially have broader application for contributing to livelihood opportunities in other fire-prone savanna regions.     

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

Cities on edge: Smuggling and neoliberal policies at the Iguazú triangle

The vision of a borderless world, of people, ideas and products freely circulating within a self‐regulating market, is one that clashes with the emerging legal regime based on the punitive force of the state. After a period of liberalization, seen in the opening of national economies and the promotion of regional trade projects and free‐trade zones, the ambivalence of neoliberalism is manifest in a borderless capitalism that ambiguously depends on the securitization of national borders. Such a changing regime of state intervention is clearly seen at the Iguazú triangle – the tri‐border urban conglomerate that straddles Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina – where the illegality of informal cross‐border trading has been tolerated for decades. Recently stepped up police raids and controls hinder the passage of people and goods, while a new fiscal regime introduced in 2009 in Brazil attempts to regularize cross‐border trafficking by turning petty smugglers into micro entrepreneurs. Petty smugglers – dubbed sacoleiros– can hardly be defined as entrepreneurs and do not constitute an identifiable category of entrepreneurship but, as typical in the informal sector, act on opportunity and need. Drawing on ethnographic research, this paper contextualizes the programmes for border controls and regularizing smuggling inspired by neoliberal ideology in South America.     

Calculating Intraurban Agglomeration of Economic Units with Planar and Network K-Functions: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract

According to recent research, one of the most promising strategies for intraurban job growth lies promoting localized clusters that produce goods and services which are primarily sold within a single city, metropolitan area, or urban region. However, in order to design urban policies to create or reinforce local clusters, the first challenge is to measure in a reliable way the clustering tendencies of different kinds of economic units in intraurban space. The aim is to compare the similarities and differences in results obtained from two methods designed to measure global clustering tendencies (the planar and network K-functions) in terms of characterization, scale, and intensity of intraurban localization patterns for tertiary economic units in a Latin American metropolis. It is concluded that the network K-function is a more appropriate method for measuring agglomeration patterns, scale, and intensity at the intra-urban level.