Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.     

Entropy‐based equation to assess hillslope sediment production

A new equation to assess hillslope sediment production, based on physical and probabilistic approaches, is presented. The equation, which allows the computation of the delivery ratio for every event, considers the physical variables of travel distance, stream power, settling velocity and gross erosion. The probability density function that arises from the new formulation is solved using the principle of maximum entropy. Based on data from five watersheds in both tropical and temperate zones, the new delivery parameter K_v is calibrated and associated with vegetation cover and conservation practice. The proposed equation is rationally based in relation to parameter K_v. The entropy‐based equation was applied to assess sediment yield in two other experimental watersheds, showing good predictability for the set (mean absolute error of 20·8%). No systematic error was found in the analysed data. The entropy‐based equation showed good predictability for long‐term sets of data and for high‐erosivity events, but did not perform well for the low‐erosivity ones. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SCAP meeting no.10

Mike Bode , Phil Charles and Carlos Frenk report the minutes of the tenth meeting of the Standing Conference of Astronomy Professors, held at the RAS, Burlington House on 30 January 2001.     

In Situ Measurement of Electro-Osmotic Fluxes and Conductivity Using Single Wellbore Tracer Tests

Electro-osmosis (EO), the movement of water through porous media in response to an electric field, offers a means for extracting contaminated ground water from fine-grained sediments, such as clays, that are not easily amenable to conventional pump-and-treat approaches. The EO-induced water flux is proportional to the voltage gradient in a manner analogous to the flux dependence on the hydraulic gradient under Darcy's law. The proportionality constant, the soil electro-osmotic conductivity or k_eo, is most easily measured in soil cores using bench-top tests, where flow is one-dimensional and interfering effects attributable to Darcy's law can be directly accounted for. In contrast, quantification of EO fluxes and k_eo in the field under deployment conditions can be difficult because electrodes are placed in ground water wells that may be screened across a heterogeneous mixture of lithologies. As a result, EO-induced water fluxes constitute an approximate radial flow system that is superimposed upon a Darcy flow regime through permeable pathways that may or may not be coupled with hydraulic head differences created by the EO-induced water fluxes. A single well comparative tracer test, which indirectly measures EO fluxes by comparing wellbore tracer dilution rates between background and EO-induced water fluxes, may provide a means for routinely quantifying the efficacy of EO systems in such settings. EO fluxes measured in field tests through this technique at a ground water contamination site were used to estimate a mean k_eo value through a semianalytic line source model of the electric field. The resulting estimate agrees well with values reported in the literature and with values obtained with bench-top tests conducted on a soil core collected in the test area.     

Distorted Froude‐scaled flume analysis of large woody debris

This paper presents the results of a movable‐boundary, distorted, Froude‐scaled hydraulic model based on Abiaca Creek, a sand‐bedded channel in northern Mississippi. The model was used to examine the geomorphic and hydraulic impact of simplified large woody debris (LWD) elements. The theory of physical scale models is discussed and the method used to construct the LWD test channel is developed. The channel model had bed and banks moulded from 0·8 mm sand, and flow conditions were just below the threshold of motion so that any sediment transport and channel adjustment were the result of the debris element. Dimensions and positions of LWD elements were determined using a debris jam classification model. Elements were attached to a dynamometer to measure element drag forces, and channel adjustment was determined through detailed topographic surveys. The fluid drag force on the elements decreased asymptotically over time as the channel boundary eroded around the elements due to locally increased boundary shear stress. Total time for geomorphic adjustment computed for the prototype channel at the Q₂ discharge (discharge occurring once every two years on average) was as short as 45 hours. The size, depth and position of scour holes, bank erosion and bars created by flow acceleration past the elements were found to be related to element length and position within the channel cross‐section. Morphologies created by each debris element in the model channel were comparable with similar jams observed in the prototype channel. Published in 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Controls on Quaternary coastal evolution of the east-northeastern coast of Brazil: roles of sea-level history, trade winds and climate

East-northeastern Brazil has a wave-dominated, micro- to meso-tidal coast, lying entirely within the southern Atlantic trade wind belt. Integration of geologic mapping, radiocarbon dating and vibracoring data shows that the Quaternary coastal evolution of this area was controlled by three major factors: (1) sea-level history; (2) trade winds; and (3) climate change.

Sea-level history. Along the east-northeastern coast of Brazil, relative sea level has fallen approximately 5 m during the last 5000 y. Correlation of this sea-level history with the evolution of beach-ridge, lagoonal and coastal plain deposits shows that: (1) sea-level rise favours the formation of barrier island—lagoonal systems and the construction of intralagoonal deltas; (2) sea-level lowering is not conductive to barrier island formation. Rather, lagoons and bays become emergent and beach-ridge plains rapidly prograde.

Trade winds. Sediment dispersal systems along the coastal zone of east-northeastern Brazil have been highly persistent since Pleistocene time, as deduced from beach-ridge orientation. This persistence results from the fact that sediment dispersal in wave-dominated settings is ultimately controlled by atmospheric circulation which, for the east-northeastern coast of Brazil is associated with the South Atlantic high-pressure cell. The remarkable stability of this cell through time, has allowed the accumulation of extensive beach-ridge plains at the longshore drift sinks located along the coast.

Climate change. Effects of Quaternary climate changes on coastal sedimentation are twofold. Climate changes may affect rainfall patterns, thus exerting an important control on coastal dune development. Along the coast of northeastern Brazil, active coastal dunes are only present in those areas in which at least four consecutive dry months occur during the year. Mapping of these areas has shown that dune development during the Holocene has been episodic, these episodes being probably controlled by variations in rainfall patterns associated with climate changes. Secondly, despite its overall stability, the position of the high-pressure cell has experienced small shifts in position during the Holocene in response to climate changes. Changes in wind direction associated with these shifts have induced modifications in the coastal dispersion system, which are recorded in the strandplains as small truncations in the beach-ridge alignments.

These results have important implications in understanding accumulation of ancient sandstone shoreline sequences.