Significance tests for covariate-dependent trends in inhomogeneous spatio-temporal point processes

Modeling and inference for spatial and spatio-temporal point processes is an issue that has been broadly investigated in the last years. Application fields such as forestry, epidemiology and ecology have been the main engine driving such raised interest. The inclusion of spatially varying covariates in the models for the intensity function is becoming of particular interest, but little attention has been paid to testing the significance of such covariates. Testing the significance of covariates is important if one seeks to explain which covariates have an effect in the spatial or spatio-temporal distribution of the point pattern observed. We thus provide practical procedures to build statistical tests of significance for covariates that have an effect on the intensity function of a point pattern. Our approximation focuses on the conditional intensity function, by considering nonparametric kernel-based estimators. We calculate thinning probabilities under the conditions of absence and presence of a covariate and compare them through divergence measures. Based on Monte Carlo experiments, we approximate the statistical properties of our tests under a variety of practical scenarios. An application on testing the significance of a covariate in a spatio-temporal data set on wildfires is also developed.     

A physical interpretation of the deterministic fractal–multifractal method as a realization of a generalized multiplicative cascade

In this study, we attempt to offer a solid physical basis for the deterministic fractal–multifractal (FM) approach in geophysics (Puente, Phys Let A 161:441–447, 1992; J Hydrol 187:65–80, 1996). We show how the geometric construction of derived measures, as Platonic projections of fractal interpolating functions transforming multinomial multifractal measures, naturally defines a non-trivial cascade process that may be interpreted as a particular realization of a random multiplicative cascade. In such a light, we argue that the FM approach is as “physical” as any other phenomenological approach based on Richardson’s eddies splitting, which indeed lead to well-accepted models of the intermittencies of nature, as it happens, for instance, when rainfall is interpreted as a quasi-passive tracer in a turbulent flow. Although neither a fractal interpolating function nor the specific multipliers of a random multiplicative cascade can be measured physically, we show how a fractal transformation “cuts through” plausible scenarios to produce a suitable realization that reflects specific arrangements of energies (masses) as seen in nature. This explains why the FM approach properly captures the spectrum of singularities and other statistical features of given data sets. As the FM approach faithfully encodes data sets with compression ratios typically exceeding 100:1, such a property further enhances its “physical simplicity.” We also provide a connection between the FM approach and advection–diffusion processes.     

Methods for estimating the velocities of the Brazil Current in the pre-salt reservoir area off southeast Brazil (23∘ S–26∘ S)

The Brazil Current (BC) is likely the least observed and investigated subtropical western boundary current in the world. This study proposes a simple and systematic methodology to estimate quasi-synoptic cross-sectional speeds of the BC within the Santos Basin (23^° S–26^° S) based on the dynamic method using several combinations of data: Conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD), temperature profiles, CTD and vessel-mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (VMADCP), and temperature profiles and VMADCP. All of the geostrophic estimates agree well with lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (LADCP) velocity observations and yield volume transports of -5.56 ±1.31 and 2.50 ±1.01 Sv for the BC and the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC), respectively. The LADCP data revealed that the BC flows southwestward and is ～100 km wide, 500 m deep, and has a volume transport of approximately -5.75 ±1.53 Sv and a maximum speed of 0.59 m s^?1. Underneath the BC, the IWBC flows northeastward and has a vertical extent of approximately 1,300 m, a width of ～60 km, a maximum velocity of ～0.22 m s?¹, and a volume transport of 4.11 ± 2.01 Sv. Our analysis indicates that in the absence of the observed velocities, the isopycnal (σ ₀) of 26.82 kg m^?3 (～500 dbar) is an adequate level of no motion for use in geostrophic calculations. Additionally, a simple linear relationship between the temperature and the specific volume anomaly can be used for a reliable first estimate of the BC-IWBC system in temperature-only transects.     

MODELING HEADCUT DEVELOPMENT AND MIGRATION IN UPLAND CONCENTRATED FLOWS

On hillslopes and agricultural fields, discrete areas of intense, localized soil erosion commonly take place in the form of migrating headcuts. These erosional features significantly increase soil loss and landscape degradation, yet the unsteady, transient, and migratory habits of headcuts complicate their phenomenological and erosional characterization. Here a unique experimental facility was constructed to examine actively migrating headcuts typical of upland concentrated flows. Essential components of the facility include a deep soil cavity with external drainage, rainfall simulator, capacity for overland flow, and a video recording technique for data collection. Results from these experiments show that： （1） after a short period of adjustment, headcut migration attained a steady-state condition, where the rate of migration, scour hole geometry, and sediment discharge remain constant with time; （2） boundary conditions of higher rates of overland flow, steeper bed slopes, and larger initial headcut heights produced systematically larger scour holes with higher rates of soil erosion; and （3） during migration, the turbulent flow structure within the scour hole remained unchanged, consisting of an overfall nappe at the brink transitioning into a reattached wall jet with two recirculation eddies within the plunge pool. The systematic behavior of headcut development and migration enabled the application of modified jet impingement theory to predict with good success the characteristics of the impinging jet, the depth of maximum scour, the rate of headcut migration, and the rate of sediment erosion. These laboratory data and the analytical formulation can be used in conjunction with soil erosion prediction technology to improve the management of agricultural areas impacted by headcut development and ephemeral gully erosion.     

Thermal analysis of fractures at Cerberus Fossae, Mars: Detection of air convection in the porous debris apron

This study investigates the cause of high nighttime temperatures within Cerberus Fossae, a system of fractures affecting the Central Elysium Planitia. The inner parts (walls and floor) of the fractures are up to 40 K warmer than the surrounding plains. However, several temperature profiles exhibit a local temperature minima occurring in the central part of the fractures. We examined first the influence of cooling efficiency at night in the case of a strong reduction of the sky proportion induced by the fracture’s geometry. However, the lack of correlation between temperature and sky proportion, calculated from extracted Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) profiles argues against this hypothesis. Albedo variations were considered but appear to be limited within the fractures, and are generally not correlated with the temperatures. Variations of the thermal properties of bedrocks exposures, debris aprons and sand dunes inferred from high-resolution images do not either correlate with temperature variations within the fractures. As none of these factors taken alone, or combined, can satisfactorily explain the temperature variations within and near the fracture, we suggest that geothermal heat transported by air convection within the porous debris aprons may contribute to explain high temperatures at night and the local minima on the fracture floor. The conditions for the occurrence of the suggested phenomenon and the consequences on the surface temperature are numerically explored. A conservative geothermal gradient of 20 mW/m² was used in the simulations, this value being consistent with either inferred lithosphere elastic thicknesses below the shield volcanoes of the Tharsis dome or values predicted from numerical simulations of the thermal evolution of Mars. The model results indicate that temperature differences of 10-20 K between the central and upper parts of the fracture are explained in the case of high Darcy velocities which require high permeability values (5 × 10⁻⁶ m²). The presence of coarse material composing the debris aprons may explain why this key criteria was met in the context of Cerberus Fossae.     

Confirmation of beach accretion by grain-size trend analysis: Camposoto beach, Cádiz, SW Spain

An application of the grain size trend analysis (GSTA) is used in an exploratory approach to characterize sediment transport on Camposoto beach (Cádiz, SW Spain). In May 2009 the mesotidal beach showed a well-developed swash bar on the upper foreshore, which was associated with fair-weather conditions prevailing just before and during the field survey. The results were tested by means of an autocorrelation statistical test (index I of Moran). Two sedimentological trends were recognized, i.e. development towards finer, better sorted and more negatively skewed sediment (FB–), and towards finer, better sorted and less negatively or more positively skewed sediment (FB+). Both vector fields were compared with results obtained from more classical approaches (sand tracers, microtopography and current measurements). This revealed that both trends can be considered as realistic, the FB+ trend being identified for the first time in a beach environment. The data demonstrate that, on the well-developed swash bar, sediment transported onshore becomes both finer and better sorted towards the coast. On the lower foreshore, which exhibits a steeper slope produced by breaking waves, the higher-energy processes winnow out finer particles and thereby produce negatively skewed grain-size distributions. The upper foreshore, which has a flatter and smoother slope, is controlled by lower-energy swash-backwash and overwash processes. As a result, the skewness of the grain-size distributions evolves towards less negative or more positive values. The skewness parameter appears to be distributed as a function of the beach slope and, thus, reflects variations in hydrodynamic energy. This has novel implications for coastal management.

Parrotfish mediation in coral mortality and bioerosion by the encrusting,excavating sponge Cliona tenuis

The parrotfish Sparisoma viride often grazes live coral from edges undermined by the Caribbean encrusting and excavating sponge Cliona tenuis. To test whether parrotfish biting action has an effect on the dynamics of the sponge–coral interaction, we manipulated access of parrotfishes to the sponge–coral border in two species of massive corals. When parrotfish had access to the border, C. tenuis advanced significantly more slowly into the coral Siderastrea siderea than into the coral Diploria strigosa. When fish bites were prevented, sponge spread into S. siderea was further slowed down but remained the same for D. strigosa. Additionally, a thinner layer of the outer coral skeleton was removed by bioerosion when fish were excluded, a condition more pronounced in D. strigosa than in S. siderea. Thus, the speed of sponge‐spread and the extent of bioerosion by parrotfish was coral species‐dependent. It is hypothesized that coral skeleton architecture is the main variable associated with such dependency. Cliona tenuis spread is slow when undermining live S. siderea owing to the coral’s compact skeleton. The coral’s smooth and hard surface promotes a wide and shallow parrotfish bite morphology, which allows the sponge to overgrow the denuded area and thus advance slightly faster. On the less compact skeleton of the brain coral, D. strigosa, sponge spread is more rapid. This coral’s rather uneven surface sustains narrower and deeper parrotfish bites which do not facilitate the already fast sponge progress. Parrotfish corallivory thus acts synergistically with C. tenuis to further harm corals whose skeletal architecture slows sponge lateral spread. In addition, C. tenuis also appears to mediate the predator–prey fish–coral interaction by attracting parrotfish biting.     

A mass mortality of subtropical intertidal populations of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus: analysis of potential links with environmental conditions

An outbreak of bald sea urchin disease was detected affecting intertidal populations of the edible temperate species Paracentrotus lividus at its southernmost geographical limit. The mortality event was detected in three sites (Güímar, Palmar and Alcalá) off Tenerife, Canary Islands (Northeastern Atlantic), in October 2003, coinciding with the highest sea surface temperatures (SST) and the lowest wave heights of the year. The prevalence of infection reached 100% but did not affect equally all studied sites or the different size classes. The disease was more prevalent in large sea urchins (>40 mm). The prevalence appeared to be positively correlated with the environmental variable SST and negatively correlated with wave height. In October 2004, only two infected urchins were found (prevalence 1%) at one of the studied sites. However, during 2004 no such extreme values of temperature and wave height were observed. We conclude that high SSTs and low wave heights such as those observed during 2003 are conditions that may trigger outbreaks of urchin disease.     

Landform instability and land-use dynamics in tropical high mountains, Central Mexico

This investigation is an analysis of the influence of landform instability on the distribution of land-use dynamics in a hydrographical basin, located in the Mexican Volcanic Belt mountain range (central Mexico), currently affected by substantial changes in land use and deforestation. A landform map was produced, in addition to seven attribute maps - altimetry, drainage density, slope, relief energy, potential erosion, geology and tectonics - which were considered as factors for determining landform instability through Multi-criteria Evaluation Analysis. Likewise, the direction and rhythm of land-use dynamics were analyzed in four dates - between 1976 and 2000 - and cross tabulations were made between them, in order to analyze the trends and processes of land-use dynamics. Afterwards, the databases obtained were cross tabulated with the landform variables to derive areas, percentages and correlation indices. In the study area, high-instability landforms are associated with most ancient volcanic and sedimentary landforms, where high altitude, drainage density, slope and potential to develop gravitational and fluvial processes are the major factors favouring a land-use pattern, dominated by the conservation of extensive forest land, abandonment of human land use and regeneration of disturbed areas. In contrast, low-instability landforms correspond to alluvial plains and lava hills covered by pyroclasts, where low potential erosion to develop fluvial processes, added to water and soil availability and accessibility, have favoured a land-use pattern dominated by the expansion of agroforestry plantations and human settlements, showing a marked trend towards either intensification or permanence of the current land use and with little abandonment and regeneration.