EXERCISE IN DOWNSCALING ON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG CHINESE COAST

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＴｈｅｍｏｎｓｏｏｎｈａｓａｃｉｒｃｕｌａｔｉｏｎｆｅａｔｕｒｅｔｈａｔｉｓｐｌａｎｅｔａｒｙｉｎｓｃａｌｅａｎｄａｎｉｄｅｎｔｉｆｉａｂｌｅｓｉｇｎａｌｒｅｇａｒｄｉｎｇｉｔｓｓｕｂｓｅｑｕｅｎｔｉｎｔｅｎｓｉｔｙｓｏｍｅｎｉｎｅｍｏｎｔｈｓｐｒｉｏｒｔｏｔｈｅａｃｔｉｖｅｓｔａｇｅｏｆｔｈｅｓｕｍｍｅｒｍｏｎｓｏｏｎ(ＷｅｂｓｔｅｒａｎｄＹａｎｇ,1992).Ｆｕｒｔｈｅｒｍｏｒｅ,ｔｈｅｍａｇｎｉｔｕｄｅｏｆｔｈｅｍｏｎｓｏｏｎｖａｒｉａｂｉｌｉｔｙｉｓｓｕｂｓｔａｎｔｉａ…     

Exercise in downscaling on sea surface temperature along Chinese coast

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＡｎｔａｒｃｔｉｃｋｒｉｌｌ(ＥｕｐｈａｕｓｉａｓｕｐｅｒｂａＤａｎａ)ｉｓａｋｅｙｏｒｇａｎｉｓｍｏｆｔｈｅＡｎｔａｒｃｔｉｃｍａｒｉｎｅｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍａｎｄａｐｏｔｅｎｔｉａｌｆｉｓｈｅｒｙｒｅｓｏｕｒｃｅ.Ｉｔｈａｓｂｅｅｎｔｈｅｓｕｂｊｅｃｔｏｆｍｕｃｈｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈ.Ｄｅｓｐｉｔｅｔｈｅｌｏｎｇｈｉｓｔｏｒｙｏｆｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｄａｔｉｎｇｂａｃｋｔｏｔｈｅ1930’ｓ,ｔｈｅｒｅａｒｅｓｔｉｌｌｑｕｅｓｔｉｏｎｓａｂｏｕｔｉｔｓｐｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｕ…     

Ranking of Placer Gold Prospects in Chile Through Analytic Hierarchy Process

Chile has a rich, but poorly known history of placer gold mining. At present, this sector is almost nonexistent and there are some restrictions for its revival: disperse and partial information on existing resources and limited technical expertise to assess the potential of placer gold mine sites. This paper presents the background, methodology and results of the prioritization process of known prospects of this kind in Chile. This research was part of a publicly funded project aimed to incentivize the development of this industry. The ranking was carried out using the analytic hierarchy process, which allowed to include different quantitative and qualitative variables related to the economic potential, technical aspects, contextual viability and socioeconomic factors in the analysis. The results show that, despite the increasing relevance of environmental and community issues in mining development, the business potential and the economic/technical aspects are the main factors in the early selection of a site to advance in exploration and development activities. Both variables represented around 40% and 37% of weights in the final selection, respectively. In contrast, contextual viability and local socioeconomic impacts only accounted for the remaining 23%. This study also shows that the inclusion of experts with different backgrounds in the process enriches the analysis and does not significantly distort the final outcome of the prioritization. Finally, the relevance of using MCDM tools when assessing the attractiveness of mine sites for their development is highlighted, particularly when public funds for subsequent exploration activities are committed.

     

Variations of young oceanic intraplate seismic energy released with relation to lithosphere age. Implications in the East Pacific Rise and its convergence with the Rivera subduction zone

Marine Geophysical Research - We have estimated empirical relationships that associate the age of the Pacific oceanic lithosphere with the seismic energy released on both flanks of the East Pacific...     

Differentiated payments for environmental services schemes: Amethodology proposal

Payment schemes for environmental services face serious budget constraints in Mexico. Payments are equally distributed among forest owners, and the governmental agencies that make payments to beneficiaries do not evaluate the amount of environmental services produced by forested areas. This lack of evaluation could lead to economic and environmental deficiencies that restrict the possible benefits of such programmes. In general, these programmes do not achieve their conservation objectives, and local beneficiaries are not involved in the design or application of these programmes. Similarly, the Payments for Hydrological Environmental Services (PHES) programme of the State of Mexico, Mexico, makes equal payments to beneficiaries of forested areas considering tree density. The objective of the present work was to create a methodology for determining differentiated payments schemes for hydrological environmental services, prioritising areas that contribute the most to groundwater recharge and promote the participation of society. In the Nevado de Toluca Natural Protected Area, the environmental criteria of forest type, tree density and aquifer overexploitation as well as social participation were considered in a multi-criteria analysis implemented in a Geographic Information System. A methodology was developed to determine differentiated payments based on specific forest characteristics that influence the potential capacity of forests to recharge groundwater reserves in addition to the level of social participation. In particular, social participation is key as it could ensure the viability of PHES programmes as conservation alternatives in forested areas with high groundwater recharge potential.     

Adding the missing third and fourth dimensions to trajectory analysis in carbonate systems

We developed a seismic geomorphology-based procedure to enhance traditional trajectory analysis with the ability to visualize and quantify lateral variability along carbonate prograding-margin types (ramps and rimmed shelves) in 3D and 4D. This quantitative approach analysed the shelf break geometric evolution of the Oligo-Miocene carbonate clinoform system in the Browse Basin and delineated the feedback between antecedent topography and carbonate system response as controlling factor on shelf break rugosity. Our geometrical analysis identified a systematic shift in the large-scale average shelf break strike direction over a transect of 10 km from 62° to 55° in the Oligo-Miocene interval of the Browse Basin, which is likely controlled by far-field allogenic forcing from the Timor Trough collision zone. Plotting of 3D shelf break trajectories represents a convenient way to visualize the lateral variability in shelf break evolution. Shelf break trajectories that indicate contemporaneous along-strike progradation and retrogradation correlate with phases of autogenic slope system re-organization and may be a proxy for morphological stability of the shelf break. Shelf break rugosity and shelf break trajectory rugosity are not inherited parameters and antecedent topography does not dictate long-term differential movement of the shelf margin through successive depositional sequences. The autogenic carbonate system response to antecedent topography smooths high-rugosity areas by filling accommodation and maintains a relatively constant shelf break rugosity of ~150 m. Color-coding of the vertical component in the shelf break trajectory captures the creation and filling of accommodation, and highlights areas of the transect that are likely to yield inconsistent 2D sequence stratigraphic interpretations.     

Area usage estimation and spatiotemporal variability in distribution patterns of southern right whales,Eubalaena australis,of southern Brazil

Southern right whales—Eubalaena australis (Desmoulins, 1822)—migrate seasonally from high‐latitude feeding grounds to coastal breeding and calving grounds at lower latitudes such as the southern coast of Brazil. Understanding how these whales are distributed along the coast is important for monitoring their postwhaling recovery and defining management strategies. In this study, we applied Kernel density estimators to aerial survey data to determine main occurrence and concentration areas of right whales in southern Brazil and investigate inter‐ and intra‐annual distribution patterns between 2003 and 2012. Our results show considerable variation in area usage within and among years, and changes in the general distribution pattern of right whales in the last years of the study. Intra‐annually, higher concentration area tended to expand from July to September and decrease in November. Some areas stood out as high‐density areas for right whales: Ribanceira/Ibiraquera, Itapirubá Sul/Sol, and from Arroio to Gaivota. Some evidences also suggest preferential areas for mother–calf pairs. The higher concentration area of right whales in southern Brazil was estimated at 52,541 km² and the occurrence area was 682.69 km², which is the whole study area. As right whale distribution in the region is likely expanding due to this population's current recovery, our study provides essential information for management plan of the Right Whale Environmental Protection Area.     

Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin,Peru

Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.     

Plant diversity and community structure of Brazilian <Emphasis Type="Italic">Páramos</Emphasis>

In Eastern South America, high altitude grasslands represent a mountain system that has a high number of endemic species. However, studies on the ecology of plant communities in these environments remain scarce. We aimed to evaluate the patterns of biodiversity and structure of plant communities from rocky outcrops in high altitude grasslands of three areas at the Caparaó National Park, southeastern Brazil, by sampling 300 randomly distributed plots. Then, we compared the floristic composition, relative abundance, and biological and vegetation spectra among areas. We classified species as endemic and non-endemic and verified the occurrence of endangered species. Species richness was evaluated by rarefaction analysis on the sampling units. The importance value and species abundance distribution (SAD) models were assessed. We also performed an indicator species analysis. We sampled 58 species belonging to 49 genera and 32 families. The number of species decreased with increasing altitude, with significant differences being observed among areas regarding richness, abundance, and cover. Of the total number of species, 10 are endemic to the Caparaó National Park and 17 are listed on the Brazilian Red List of endangered species. The dominant families on all peaks were Asteraceae and Poaceae. The SAD models showed lognormal and geometric distributions, corroborating the fact that 10 species that were common to all three areas were also the most dominant ones in the communities and showed the highest importance values, which ranged between 35% and 60%. Indicator species analysis revealed that 28 species (48.27%) were indicators. Of these, 42.85% had maximum specificity, meaning that they occurred only in one area. Thus, the number of species per life form ratio was similar among areas, yet vegetation spectra differed, especially for hemicryptophytes. The altimetric difference among the areas showed to be a very important driver in the community assembly, influencing the evaluated variables, however, other drivers as soil depth, slope and water could also influence the community structure on a smaller and local spatial scale.