Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time

Savannas constitute the most fire-prone vegetation type on earth and are a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Most savanna fires are lit by people for a variety of livelihood applications. ‘Savanna burning’ is an accountable activity under the Kyoto Protocol, but only Australia, as a developed economy, accounts for emissions from this source in its national accounts. Over the past decade considerable effort has been given to developing savanna burning projects in northern Australia, combining customary indigenous (Aboriginal) approaches to landscape-scale fire management with development of scientifically robust emissions accounting methodologies. Formal acceptance by the Australian Government of that methodology, and its inclusion in Australia’s developing emissions trading scheme, paves the way for Aboriginal people to commercially benefit from savanna burning projects. The paper first describes this Australian experience, and then explores options for implementing community-based savanna burning emissions reduction projects in other continental savanna settings, specifically in Namibia and Venezuela. These latter examples illustrate that savanna fire management approaches potentially have broader application for contributing to livelihood opportunities in other fire-prone savanna regions.     

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

Daily Meteorological Observations in Cádiz – San Fernando. Analysis of the Documentary Sources and the Instrumental Data Content (1786–1996)

Meteorological observations in the city of Cádiz are acknowledged as having been made from the middle of the 18th century onwards although they were only recorded and preserved in documentary form from 1789 onwards. Data readings were taken at the new Naval Observatory in San Fernando, ten kilometres from Cádiz, from 1797 onwards. Continuous series for temperature and atmospheric pressure at a daily resolution have been compiled and constructed from 1817 until 1996. The data series is composed of thrice daily observations made at Cádiz (1821–1880) by local observers and hourly data from Naval Observatory at San Fernando (1870–1996).     

Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada

Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971–2000) and A2 (2041–2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.     

Improving the Elevation Accuracy of Digital Elevation Models: A Comparison of Some Error Detection Procedures

The widespread availability of powerful desktop computers, easy‐to‐use software tools and geographic datasets have raised the quality problem of input data to be a crucial one. Even though accuracy has been a concern in every serious application, there are no general tools for its improvement. Some particular ones exist, however, and some results are presented here for a particular case of quantitative raster data: Digital Elevation Models (DEM). Two procedures designed to detect anomalous values (also named gross errors, outliers or blunders) in DEMs, but valid also for other quantitative raster datasets, were tested. A DEM with elevations varying from 181 to 1044 m derived from SPOT data has been used as a contaminated sample, while a manually derived DEM obtained from aerial photogrammetry was regarded as the ground truth to allow a direct performance comparison for the methods with real errors. It is assumed that a “better” value can be measured or obtained through some methodology once an outlier location is suggested. The options are different depending upon the user (DEM producers might go to the original data and make another reading, while end users might use interpolation). Both choices were considered in this experiment. Preliminary results show that for the available dataset, the accuracy might be improved to some extent with very little effort. Effort is defined here as the percentage of points suggested by the methodology in relation with its total number: thus 100 per cent effort implies that all points have been checked. The method proposed by López (1997) gave poor results, because it has been designed for errors with low spatial autocorrelation (which is not the case here). A modified version was then designed and compared with the method proposed by Felicísimo (1994). The three procedures can be applied both for error detection during DEM generation and by end users, and they might be of use for other quantitative raster data. The choice of the best methodology is different depending on the effort involved. The conclusions have been derived for a photogrammetrically obtained DEM; other production procedures might lead to different results.     

A GPS-Supported Gravity Survey in the Amazon of Ecuador

The growing importance and effectiveness of the Global Positioning System (GPS) in positioning geophysical surveys is now well established. In Ecuador's Amazon basin the use of GPS was the determining factor in the successful completion of a gravity survey carried out in 1994. Over 500 gravity stations, spaced from 1 to 5 km apart and positioned by GPS, were collected in the jungle environment in the country's southeast, where the preexisting data, of variable and unknown quality, were mostly confined to areas along the major rivers. This station densification, which includes the reoccupation of selected points, contributed to increase the gravity coverage; it also allowed us to evaluate and correct 1100 preexisting data points in the area, so that the different surveys can be merged. The composite data set is used for a geologic analysis of the study area, where previously unknown structures are discovered. ? 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Gonadal histology and serum vitellogenin levels of bigeye tuna Thunnus obesus from the Northern Pacific Ocean--absence of endocrine disruption bio-indicators

Endocrine disrupting chemicals such as organochlorines have been detected in a large number of marine fish. Histological observation of the gonads, measurement of serum vitellogenin (VTG) level and of liver polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) content were performed to evaluate the reproductive health and the contamination with endocrine disruptors in bigeye tuna Thunnus obesus, collected in the northern Pacific Ocean in 1999 and 2000. Abnormalities commonly found in species affected by endocrine disruptors such as the presence of oocytes in the testis or elevated serum VTG levels were not found in any of males examined. Both males and females had only small amounts of liver PCB content. The results suggest that currently there is little if any risk of organochlorine contamination or endocrine disruption of gonadal function in bigeye tuna from the northern Pacific Ocean. However, further studies are necessary to evaluate the health status of the open sea fishery resources.     

Benthic primary producers--a neglected environmental problem in Mediterranean maricultures?

Marine fish farming is increasing rapidly in the Mediterranean and in contrast to the Atlantic the coastal zone in the Mediterranean is characterized by clear waters with high transparency. This allows benthic primary producers such as the slow-growing seagrass Posidonia oceanica to grow at large depths at locations suitable for fish farming and generating a conflict between the conservation of these meadows and the growth of aquaculture operations in the Mediterranean. In this paper we review the current knowledge on environmental interactions between fish farming and benthic primary producers with particular focus on P. oceanica, as this seagrass is a key component along Mediterranean coasts. The recovery times of P. oceanica are very long, in the order of centuries, and losses of this species are thus considered to be irreversible at managerial time scales.     

A non-parametric automatic blending methodology to estimate rainfall fields from rain gauge and radar data

Quantitative estimation of rainfall fields has been a crucial objective from early studies of the hydrological applications of weather radar. Previous studies have suggested that flow estimations are improved when radar and rain gauge data are combined to estimate input rainfall fields. This paper reports new research carried out in this field. Classical approaches for the selection and fitting of a theoretical correlogram (or semivariogram) model (needed to apply geostatistical estimators) are avoided in this study. Instead, a non-parametric technique based on FFT is used to obtain two-dimensional positive-definite correlograms directly from radar observations, dealing with both the natural anisotropy and the temporal variation of the spatial structure of the rainfall in the estimated fields. Because these correlation maps can be automatically obtained at each time step of a given rainfall event, this technique might easily be used in operational (real-time) applications. This paper describes the development of the non-parametric estimator exploiting the advantages of FFT for the automatic computation of correlograms and provides examples of its application on a case study using six rainfall events. This methodology is applied to three different alternatives to incorporate the radar information (as a secondary variable), and a comparison of performances is provided. In particular, their ability to reproduce in estimated rainfall fields (i) the rain gauge observations (in a cross-validation analysis) and (ii) the spatial patterns of radar fields are analyzed. Results seem to indicate that the methodology of kriging with external drift [KED], in combination with the technique of automatically computing 2-D spatial correlograms, provides merged rainfall fields with good agreement with rain gauges and with the most accurate approach to the spatial tendencies observed in the radar rainfall fields, when compared with other alternatives analyzed.