A hurricane evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS)

This article describes the challenges confronting local authorities who must decide if and when to initiate evacuations from tropical cyclones. This problem can be decomposed into the behavior of the hurricane that is relevant to evacuation and the behavior of evacuees that is relevant to the hurricane. The uncertain behavior of these two systems can be modeled in an evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS). The hurricane EMDSS described here displays information about the minimum, most, and maximum probable evacuation time estimates (ETEs) in comparison to the earliest, most, and latest probable estimated times of arrival (ETAs) for storm conditions. In addition, EMDSS calculates the cost of false positive (the economic cost of an evacuation) and false negative (lives lost in a late evacuation) decision errors. EMDSS is being used in experiments to assess different information displays, team compositions, community characteristics, and hurricane scenarios. In addition, it will be used in training and actual hurricane operations. Finally, definition of the program’s requirements has identified further research needed to build a better empirical base for its input data.     

Experimental determination of magnesia and silica solubilities in graphite-saturated and redox-buffered high-pressure COH fluids in equilibrium with forsterite + enstatite and magnesite + enstatite

We experimentally investigated the dissolution of forsterite, enstatite and magnesite in graphite-saturated COH fluids, synthesized using a rocking piston cylinder apparatus at pressures from 1.0 to 2.1 GPa and temperatures from 700 to 1200 °C. Synthetic forsterite, enstatite, and nearly pure natural magnesite were used as starting materials. Redox conditions were buffered by Ni–NiO–H₂O (ΔFMQ = ??0.21 to ??1.01), employing a double-capsule setting. Fluids, binary H₂O–CO₂ mixtures at the P, T, and fO₂ conditions investigated, were generated from graphite, oxalic acid anhydrous (H₂C₂O₄) and water. Their dissolved solute loads were analyzed through an improved version of the cryogenic technique, which takes into account the complexities associated with the presence of CO₂-bearing fluids. The experimental data show that forsterite?+?enstatite solubility in H₂O–CO₂ fluids is higher compared to pure water, both in terms of dissolved silica (mSiO₂?=?1.24 mol/kg_H2O versus mSiO₂?=?0.22 mol/kg_H2O at P?=?1 GPa, T?=?800 °C) and magnesia (mMgO?=?1.08 mol/kg_H2O versus mMgO?=?0.28 mol/kg_H2O) probably due to the formation of organic C–Mg–Si complexes. Our experimental results show that at low temperature conditions, a graphite-saturated H₂O–CO₂ fluid interacting with a simplified model mantle composition, characterized by low MgO/SiO₂ ratios, would lead to the formation of significant amounts of enstatite if solute concentrations are equal, while at higher temperatures these fluid, characterized by MgO/SiO₂ ratios comparable with that of olivine, would be less effective in metasomatizing the surrounding rocks. However, the molality of COH fluids increases with pressure and temperature, and quintuplicates with respect to the carbon-free aqueous fluids. Therefore, the amount of fluid required to metasomatize the mantle decreases in the presence of carbon at high P–T conditions. COH fluids are thus effective carriers of C, Mg and Si in the mantle wedge up to the shallowest level of the upper mantle.     

Land Cover Classification Using High‐Resolution Aerial Photography in Adventdalen,Svalbard

A methodology was tested for high‐resolution mapping of vegetation and detailed geoecological patterns in the Arctic Tundra, based on aerial imagery from an unmanned aerial vehicle (visible wavelength – RGB, 6 cm pixel resolution) and from an aircraft (visible and near infrared, 20 cm pixel resolution). The scenes were fused at 10 and 20 cm to evaluate their applicability for vegetation mapping in an alluvial fan in Adventdalen, Svalbard. Ground‐truthing was used to create training and accuracy evaluation sets. Supervised classification tests were conducted with different band sets, including the original and derived ones, such as NDVI and principal component analysis bands. The fusion of all original bands at 10 cm resolution provided the best accuracies. The best classifier was systematically the maximum neighbourhood algorithm, with overall accuracies up to 84%. Mapped vegetation patterns reflect geoecological conditioning factors. The main limitation in the classification was differentiating between the classes graminea, moss and Salix, and moss, graminea and Salix, which showed spectral signature mixing. Silty‐clay surfaces are probably overestimated in the south part of the study area due to microscale shadowing effects. The results distinguished vegetation zones according to a general gradient of ecological limiting factors and show that VIS+NIR high‐resolution imagery are excellent tools for identifying the main vegetation groups within the lowland fan study site of Adventdalen, but do not allow for detailed discrimination between species.     

Slab rollback and microcontinent subduction in the evolution of the Zambales Ophiolite Complex(Philippines):A review

New radiolarian ages show that the island arc-related Acoje block of the Zambales Ophiolite Complex is possibly of Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous age.Radiometric dating of its plutonic and volcanichypabyssal rocks yielded middle Eocene ages.On the other hand,the paleontological dating of the sedimentary carapace of the transitional mid-ocean ridge-island arc affiliated Coto block of the ophiolite complex,together with isotopic age datings of its dikes and mafic cumulate rocks,also yielded Eocene ages.This offers the possibility that the Zambales Ophiolite Complex could have:(1)evolved from a Mesozoic arc(Acoje block)that split to form a Cenozoic back-arc basin(Coto block),(2)through faulting,structurally juxtaposed a Mesozoic oceanic crust with a younger Cenozoic lithospheric fragment or(3)through the interplay of slab rollback,slab break-off and,at a later time,collision with a microcontinent fragment,caused the formation of an island arc-related ophiolite block(Acoje)that migrated trench-ward resulting into the generation of a back-arc basin(Coto block)with a limited subduction signature.This Meso-Cenozoic ophiolite complex is compared with the other oceanic lithosphere fragments along the western seaboard of the Philippines in the context of their evolution in terms of their recognized environments of generation.     

Legal protection is not enough: Posidoniaoceanica meadows in marine protected areas are not healthier than those in unprotected areas of the northwest Mediterranean Sea

Using the Conservation Index, which measures the proportional amount of dead matte relative to live Posidonia oceanica, we assessed the health of 15 P. oceanica meadows at a regional scale along the coast of Liguria (NW Mediterranean). These areas were characterized by different degrees of anthropization, from highly urbanized sites to marine protected areas. Two different scenarios were identified according to depth: in shallow zones, the health of P. oceanica meadows was related to the degree of anthropization along the coastline. In contrast, in deep zones, most meadows exhibited poor health, independent of both the degree of disturbance and the legal measures protecting the area. Working synergistically with the regional impact of increased water turbidity, local impacts from the coast were recognized as the main causes of the severe regression of most Ligurian P. oceanica meadows. We conclude that marine protected areas alone are not sufficient to guarantee the protection of P. oceanica meadows. We emphasize the need for a management network involving the Sites of Community Interest (SCIs) containing P. oceanica meadows.     

Mesozoic radiolarian faunas from the northwest Ilocos Region,Luzon, Philippines and their tectonic significance

Northwestern Ilocos Norte in Luzon, Philippines, exposes cherts, peridotite and a variety of metamorphic rocks including chlorite schist, quartzo‐feldspathic schist, muscovite schist and actinolite schist. These rocks are incorporated within a tectonic mélange, the Dos Hermanos Mélange, which is thrust onto the turbidite succession of the Eocene Bangui Formation and capped by the Upper Miocene Pasuquin Limestone. The radiolarian assemblages constrain the stratigraphic range of the cherts to the uppermost Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous. Stratigraphically important species include Eucyrtidiellum pyramis (Aita), Hiscocapsa acuta (Hull), Protunuma japonicus (Matsuoka & Yao), Archeodictyomitra montisserei (Squinabol), Hiscocapsa asseni (Tan), Cryptamphorella conara (Foreman) and Pseudodictyomitra carpatica (Lozyniak). The radiolarian biostratigraphic data provide evidence for the existence of a Mesozoic basinal source from which the cherts and associated rocks were derived. Crucial to determining the origin of these rocks is their distribution and resemblance with known mélange outcrops in Central Philippines. The mélange in the northwestern Ilocos region bears similarities in terms of age and composition with those noted in the western part of the Central Philippines, particularly in the islands of Romblon, Mindoro and Panay. The existence of tectonic mélanges in the Central Philippines has been attributed to the Early to Middle Miocene arc–continent collision. This event involved the Philippine Mobile Belt and the Palawan Microcontinental Block, a terrane that drifted from the southeastern margin of mainland Asia following the opening of the South China Sea. Such arc–continent collision event could also well explain the existence of a tectonic mélange in northwestern Luzon.     

Integrated Geophysical Investigations at the Greek Kamarina Site (Southern Sicily,Italy)

Kamarina, located in southern Sicily (Italy), was an important Greek colony since its foundation in the sixth century BC. Archaeological excavations, carried out since the twentieth century, uncovered only limited portions of the site so far. Despite the importance of the Greek colony, the presence of remarkable buildings that archaeologists expected to bring to light has not found fully correspondence in the archaeological excavations. Consequently, the integrated geophysical prospection carried out in the study area is aimed to support and address the future archaeological investigations. After the photographic and thermographic survey obtained by an unmanned aerial vehicle, we performed a systematic survey through ground magnetic and GPR methods over an area of 6200 m². The acquisition procedures have been optimized in order to get the best results combining high resolution and elevated speed of acquisition. The results derived from the three geophysical techniques have been conveniently combined by means of a cluster analysis, allowing us to clearly identify a series of buried archaeological features. Because of their geometrical characteristics, often in good agreement with the spatial arrangement of the archaeological remains at the surface, these buried archaeological features can be interpreted as roads, walls, or buildings foundations in which the various construction phases of the city can be clearly recognized. The integrated approach has proven to be essential for a robust interpretation of the archaeogeophysical investigation.     

Contrasting morphological trends of islands in Central Philippines: Speculation on their origin

Abstract The Palawan microcontinental block collided with the Philippine Mobile Belt in the Central Philippine region resulting in the counterclockwise rotation of Mindoro– Marinduque and clockwise rotation of Panay. The collision also brought about the clockwise rotation of north-east Negros, Cebu, north-west Masbate and Bohol (collectively called the Western Visayan block), resulting into their present-day northeast–southwest trend. This suggests a far more dramatic role of the collision than was previously recognized. Furthermore, the south-east Sulu Sea sub-basin is inferred to have also undergone collision-related clockwise rotation which can account for the observed east-west trending magnetic lineations in the basin. Aside from explaining the contrasting morphological trends of the different islands in Central Philippines, the rotation can also explain, albeit in a different way, how the belts of sedimentary basins, ophiolites and arcs in Panay and Negros can extend to Northern Luzon. Published paleomagnetic data suggest that the collision-related rotation commenced during the early to middle Miocene and had ceased by the late Miocene.     

Provenance and tectonic setting of the Klondyke and Zigzag Formations: Implications on the oceanic to island arc evolution of the Baguio Mineral District, Philippine

Petrographic and geochemical studies were made on the sedimentary units of the Baguio Mineral Dis-trict and its adjacent areas. These analyses are par-ticularly useful in providing clues on the geologic evolution not just of Northern Luzon but of the Phil-ippine island arc system as well. Results on the petrography of the clastic rock units of the Baguio Mineral District reveal that the Zigzag Formation samples contain more quartz but less plagioclase compared to samples of the Klondyke, Amlang and Cataguintingan formations. It is also noted that lithic fragments are more abundant in the Klondyke Formation sandstone samples.