Probabilistic data integration for characterization of spatial distribution of residual LNAPL

The spatial distribution of residual light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) is an important factor in reactive solute transport modeling studies. There is great uncertainty associated with both the areal limits of LNAPL source zones and smaller scale variability within the areal limits. A statistical approach is proposed to construct a probabilistic model for the spatial distribution of residual NAPL and it is applied to a site characterized by ultra-violet-induced-cone-penetration testing (CPT–UVIF). The uncertainty in areal limits is explicitly addressed by a novel distance function (DF) approach. In modeling the small-scale variability within the areal limits, the CPT–UVIF data are used as primary source of information, while soil texture and distance to water table are treated as secondary data. Two widely used geostatistical techniques are applied for the data integration, namely sequential indicator simulation with locally varying means (SIS–LVM) and Bayesian updating (BU). A close match between the calibrated uncertainty band (UB) and the target probabilities shows the performance of the proposed DF technique in characterization of uncertainty in the areal limits. A cross-validation study also shows that the integration of the secondary data sources substantially improves the prediction of contaminated and uncontaminated locations and that the SIS–LVM algorithm gives a more accurate prediction of residual NAPL contamination. The proposed DF approach is useful in modeling the areal limits of the non-stationary continuous or categorical random variables, and in providing a prior probability map for source zone sizes to be used in Monte Carlo simulations of contaminant transport or Monte Carlo type inverse modeling studies.     

Phase difference analysis of temperature and vegetation phenology for beech forest: a wavelet approach

Temporal shifts in phenology or vegetation period of plants are seen as indicators of global warming with potentially severe impacts on ecosystem functioning. In spite of increasing knowledge on drivers, it is of utmost importance to disentangle the relationship between air temperatures, phenological events, potential temporal lags (phase shifts) and time scale for certain plant species. Assessing the phase shifts as well as the scale-dependent relationship between temperature and vegetation phenology requires the development of a nonlinear temporal model. Therefore, we use wavelet analysis and present a framework for identifying scale-dependent cross-phase coupling of bivariate time series. It allows the calculation of (a) scale-dependent decompositions of time series, (b) phase shifts of seasonal components in relation to the annual cycle, and (c) inter-annual phase differences between seasonal phases of different time series. The model is applied to air temperature data and remote sensing phenology data of a beech forest in Germany. Our study reveals that certain seasonal changes in amplitude and phase with respect to the normal annual rhythm of temperature and beech phenology are coupled time-delayed components, which are characterized by a time shift of about one year.     

Wetlands and low-gradient topography are associated with longer hydrologic transit times in Precambrian Shield headwater catchments

The estimation of hydrologic transit times in a catchment provides insights into the integrated effects of water storage, mixing dynamics, and runoff generation processes. There has been limited effort to estimate transit times in southern boreal Precambrian Shield landscapes, which are characteristically heterogeneous with surface cover including till, thin soils, bedrock outcrops, and depressional wetland features that play contrasting hydrologic roles. This study presents approximately 3.5 years of precipitation and streamflow water isotope data and estimates mean transit times (MTTs) and the young water fraction (p_y) across six small catchments in the Muskoka-Haliburton region of south-central Ontario. The main objectives were to define a typical range of MTTs for headwater catchments in this region and to identify landscape variables that best explain differences in MTTs/p_y using airborne light detection and ranging and digital terrain analysis. Of the transit time distributions, the two parallel linear reservoir and gamma distributions best describe the hydrology of these catchments, particularly because of their ability to capture more extreme changes related to events such as snowmelt. The estimated MTTs, regardless of the modelling approach or distribution used, are positively associated with the percent wetland area and negatively with mean slope in the catchments. In this landscape, low-gradient features such as wetlands increase catchment scale water storage when antecedent conditions are dryer and decrease transit times when there is a moisture surplus, which plausibly explains the increases in MTTs and mean annual runoff from catchments with significant coverage of these landscape features.     

Actually achieving marine sustainability demands a radical re-think in approach, not 'more of the same'

The UK is committed to meeting a series of ‘high-level marine objectives’ which are required to satisfy national obligations and to meet international commitments for the marine environment. There are more than 16 such international high-level policy driven obligations and commitments, together with more than 18 European and more than 12 of national origin. In the UK, there is an assumption that the current and planned monitoring will provide evidence to demonstrate achievement against these high-level objectives.     

南加州地壳的伴随层析成像

使用基于伴随方法的反演策略,研制出了南加州地壳的三维地震模型。该模型涉及到16次层析成像迭代,需要6800次波场模拟和总计80万个中心处理单位小时。与南加州地震中心给出的最初三维模型比较,该新的地壳模型揭示了更强的非均匀性,包括±30%的局部变化。模型说明了诸如沉积盆地和横跨断层的构造反差的浅部特征。也揭示了深部的地壳特征,从而帮助重建诸如俯冲捕获洋壳碎块的南加州构造。新模型有助于对地震危险性做出更实际而准确的评估。     

The role of biophysical interactions within the ijzermonding tidal flat sediment dynamics

This paper focuses on the importance of biophysical interactions on short-term and long-term sediment dynamics. Therefore, various biological (macrobenthos, photopigments, colloidal EPS) and physical parameters (grain size, water content, sediment stability, bed level) were determined (bi)monthly in nine sampling plots on the IJzermonding tidal flat (Belgium, 51°08′N, 2°44′E) during three consecutive years (July 2005–June 2008). Results showed that sediment stability varied on the short timescale and was directly influenced by biota, while bed level varied mainly on the long-term due to interannual variability. The short-term dynamic relationships between mud content, water content, fucoxanthin and macrobenthos density resulted in a seasonal mud deposition and erosion cycle, and directly influenced sediment stability. Moreover, macrobenthos was proven to be the most important parameter determining sediment stability. On the long-term, a shift was observed from high fucoxanthin/chla concentration, high mud content and zero to moderate densities of Corophium volutator towards low fucoxanthin/chl a and mud content and high Corophium densities, which resulted in a transition from net accretion to net erosion. However, most measured variables proved to be poor predictors for these long-term bed level changes, indicating that external physical forces, such as waves and storminess, probably were the most important factors triggering long-term sediment dynamics. Nevertheless, biota indirectly influenced bed level changes by mediating short-term changes in sediment stability, thereby influencing the erodability of the sediment. The macrobenthos, and especially the mud shrimp Corophium, was suggested as the (indirect) driving destabilising factor for the sampling plots in the IIzermonding when considering the long-term evolution.     

Isotopic composition of strontium in three basalt-andesite centers along the Lesser Antilles arc

Si⁸⁷/Sr⁸⁶ ratios have been determined for lavas and py lastic rocks from three basalt-andesite centers along the Lesser Antilles arc—Mt. Misery on the island of St. Kitts, Soufriere on the island of St. Vincent, and Carriacou, an island of The Grenadines. The average Si⁸⁷/Sr⁸⁶ content of these rocks is 0.7038 for Mt. Misery, 0.7041 for Soufriere, and 0.7053 for Carriacou. All the Sr⁸⁷/Sr⁸⁶ values from each center are the same within analytical uncertainty (±0.0002). The constancy of strontium isotopic data within each center supports the hypothesis that basalts and andesites for each specific center investigated are generated from the same source — in agreement with petrographic and major- and minor-element data. Strontium isotopic compositions and elemental concentrations, particularly of strontium and nickel, indicate that this source was mantle peridotite and that the relationship between the respective basalts and andesites is probably fractional crystallization.Publication authorized by the Director, U.S. Geological Survey.     

Measured and modeled effects of benthic algae on eutrophication in Indian River-Rehoboth Bay, Delaware

A combination of field studies and mathematical modeling was used to examine the role of subtidal benthic algae in the eutrophication processes in two shallow estuarine systems. Field measurements indicated uptake by benthic algae retained ammonium and phosphate in the sediments when light at the sediment surface exceeded ≈150 μE m² s^?1. The measurements were used to calibrate a newly developed model of benthic algal activity. The benthic algal model was coupled with a hydrodynamic model, a eutrophication model, and a sediment diagenesis model. In the simulated ecosystem, benthic algae had a major influence in the intra-annual cycling of nitrogen and phosphorus. When nutrients were abundant in the water column (late winter and spring) they were transferred to the sediments through algal activity. Diagenesis released these nutrients to the water column in summer when nutrients were scarce. As a result of the nutrient transfer, annual primary production in the water column, in the presence of benthic algae, exceeded production in the absence of the algae.