Indirect determination of weighted joint density (wJd) by empirical and fuzzy models: Supren (Eskisehir, Turkey) marbles

Correct block size assessment is the most important stage for rock quarry management. Although volumetric joint count (J_v) and weighted joint density (wJd) were proposed for this purpose, simple prediction method for these indices is not encountered in literature. Due to the fact that some rock masses such as marbles contain less discontinuity, collection of representative amount of data from in situ line surveys for statistical assessments is highly difficult. For this reason, the main targets of the present paper are to apply photoanalysis approach for collecting additional discontinuity data and to obtain some simple statistical and fuzzy models for predicting weighted joint density to evaluate block size in engineering practice for marbles around Supren (Eskisehir, Turkey). In addition, a new and simple approach to predict volumetric decrease caused by chemical weathering is introduced. For these purposes, extensive field and photoanalysis studies were performed and the data obtained from both field and photoanalysis studies were assessed by regression and fuzzy approaches. The results revealed that the prediction performance of the fuzzy inference system is higher than that of the regression equation.     

Prediction of uniaxial compressive strength of sandstones using petrography-based models

The uniaxial compressive strength of intact rock is the main parameter used in almost all engineering projects. The uniaxial compressive strength test requires high quality core samples of regular geometry. The standard cores cannot always be extracted from weak, highly fractured, thinly bedded, foliated and/or block-in-matrix rocks. For this reason, the simple prediction models become attractive for engineering geologists. Although, the sandstone is one of the most abundant rock type, a general prediction model for the uniaxial compressive strength of sandstones does not exist in the literature. The main purposes of the study are to investigate the relationships between strength and petrographical properties of sandstones, to construct a database as large as possible, to perform a logical parameter selection routine, to discuss the key petrographical parameters governing the uniaxial compressive strength of sandstones and to develop a general prediction model for the uniaxial compressive strength of sandstones. During the analyses, a total of 138 cases including uniaxial compressive strength and petrographic properties were employed. Independent variables for the multiple prediction model were selected as quartz content, packing density and concavo–convex type grain contact. Using these independent variables, two different prediction models such as multiple regression and ANN were developed. Also, a routine for the selection of the best prediction model was proposed in the study. The constructed models were checked by using various prediction performance indices. Consequently, it is possible to say that the constructed models can be used for practical purposes.     

An assessment on the use of logistic regression and artificial neural networks with different sampling strategies for the preparation of landslide susceptibility maps

The main purpose of this study is to highlight the conceptual differences of produced susceptibility models by applying different sampling strategies: from all landslide area with depletion and accumulation zones and from a zone which almost represents pre-failure conditions. Variations on accuracy and precision values of the models constructed considering different algorithms were also investigated. For this purpose, two most popular techniques, logistic regression analysis and back-propagation artificial neural networks were taken into account. The town Ispir and its close vicinity (Northeastern part of Turkey), suffered from landsliding for many years was selected as the application site of this study. As a result, it is revealed that the back-propagation artificial neural network algorithms overreact to the samplings in which the presence (1) data were taken from the landslide masses. When the generalization capacities of the models are taken into consideration, these reactions cause imprecise results, even though the area under curve (AUC) values are very high (0.915 < AUC < 0.949). On the other hand, the susceptibility maps, based on the samplings in which the presence (1) data were taken from a zone which almost represents pre-failure conditions constitute more realistic susceptibility evaluations. However, considering the spatial texture of the final susceptibility values, the maps produced using the outputs of the back-propagation artificial neural networks could be interpreted as highly optimistic, while of those generated using the resultant probabilities of the logistic regression equations might be evaluated as pessimistic. Consequently, it is evident that, there are still some needs for further investigations with more realistic validations and data to find out the appropriate accuracy and precision levels in such kind of landslide susceptibility studies.     

Pan-African magmatism in the Menderes Massif: geochronological data from leucocratic tourmaline orthogneisses in western Turkey

The Menderes Massif, exposed in western Anatolia, is a metamorphic complex cropping out in the Alpine orogenic belt. The metamorphic rock succession of the Massif is made up of a Precambrian basement and overlying Paleozoic-early Tertiary cover series. The Pan-African basement is composed of late Proterozoic metasedimentary rocks consisting of partially migmatized paragneisses and conformably overlying medium- to high-grade mica schists, intruded by orthogneisses and metagabbros. Along the southern flank of the southern submassif, we recognized well-preserved primary contact relationship between biotite and leucocratic tourmaline orthogneisses and country rocks as the orthogneisses represent numerous large plutons, stocks and vein rocks intruded into a basement of garnet mica schists. Based on the radiometric data, the primary deposition age of the precursors of the country rocks, garnet mica schist, can be constrained between 600 and 550?Ma (latest Neoproterozoic). The North Africa–Arabian-Nubian Shield in the Mozambique Belt can be suggested as the possible provenance of these metaclastics. The intrusion ages of the leucocratic tourmaline orthogneisses and biotite orthogneisses were dated at 550–540?Ma (latest Neoproterozoic–earliest Cambrian) by zircon U/Pb and Pb/Pb geochronology. These granitoids represent the products of the widespread Pan-African acidic magmatic activity, which can be attributed to the closure of the Mozambique Ocean during the final collision of East and West Gondwana. Detrital zircon ages at about 550?Ma in the Paleozoic muscovite-quartz schists show that these Pan-African granitoids in the basement form the source rocks of the cover series of the Menderes Massif.     

Late Cretaceous eclogitic high-pressure relics in the Bitlis Massif

A new occurrence of eclogites was found in the Kesandere valley in the eastern most part of the Bitlis complex, SE Anatolia. These high-pressure (HP) relics were preserved in calc-arenitic metasediments within the high-grade metamorphic basement of the Bitlis complex. The eclogitic parageneses were strongly overprinted during decompression and heating. These new eclogites locality complements the evidence of blueschist-facies metamorphism documented recently in the meta-sedimentary cover sequence of this part of the Bitlis complex. Thermodynamic calculations suggest peak conditions of ca. 480–540 °C/1.9–2.4 GPa. New U/Pb dates of 84.4 ± .9 and 82.4 ± .9 Ma were obtained on zircons from two Kesandere eclogite samples. On the basis of geochemical criteria, these dates are interpreted to represent zircon crystallization during the eclogitic peak stage. Kesandere eclogites differ from those previously described in the western Bitlis complex (Mt. Gablor locality) in terms of lithologic association, protolithic origin, and peak P–T conditions (600–650 °C/1.0–2.0 GPa, respectively). On the other hand, eclogitic metamorphism of Kesandere metasediments occurred shortly before blueschist-facies metamorphism of the sedimentary cover (79–74 Ma ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar white mica). Therefore, the exhumation of Kesandere eclogites started between ca. 82 and 79 Ma, while the meta-sedimentary cover was being buried. During this short time span, Kesandere eclogite were likely uplifted from ~65 to 35 km depth, indicating a syn-subduction exhumation rate of ~4.3 mm/a. Subsequently, eclogite- and blueschist-facies rocks were likely retrogressed contemporarily during collision-type metamorphism (around 72–69 Ma). The Bitlis HP rocks thus sample a subduction zone that separated the Bitlis–Pütürge (Bistun?) block from the South-Armenian block, further north. To the south, Eocene metasediments of the Urse formation are imbricated below the Bitlis complex. They contain (post Eocene) blueschists, testifying separation from the Arabian plate and southward migration of the subduction zone. The HT overprint of Kesandere eclogites can be related to the asthenospheric flow provoked by subducting slab retreat or break off.     

Medium-scale hazard mapping for shallow landslide initiation: the Buyukkoy catchment area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey)

The main purpose of this study is to develop a new hazard evaluation technique considering the current limitations, particularly for shallow landslides. For this purpose, the Buyukkoy catchment area, located in the East Black Sea Region in the east of Rize province and the south of Cayeli district, was selected as the study area. The investigations were executed in four different stages. These were (1) preparation of a temporal shallow landslide inventory of the study area, (2) assessment of conditioning factors in the catchment, (3) susceptibility analyses and (4) hazard evaluations and mapping. A total of 251 shallow landslides in the period of 1955–2007 were recognised using different data sources. A ‘Sampling Circle’ approach was proposed to define shallow landslide initiation in the mapping units in susceptibility evaluations. To accomplish the susceptibility analyses, the method of artificial neural networks was implemented. According to the performance analyses conducted using the training and testing datasets, the prediction and generalisation capacities of the models were found to be very high. To transform the susceptibility values into hazard rates, a new approach with a new equation was developed, taking into account the behaviour of the responsible triggering factor over time in the study area. In the proposed equation, the threshold value of the triggering factor and the recurrence interval are the independent variables. This unique property of the suggested equation allows the execution of more flexible and more dynamic hazard assessments. Finally, using the proposed technique, shallow landslide initiation hazard maps of the Buyukkoy catchment area for the return periods of 1, 2, 5, 10, 50 and 100 years were produced.     

A large and rapid planar failure: causes,mechanism, and consequences (Mordut,Gumushane, Turkey)

Gumushane is a small city located on highway connecting the harbour city Trabzon in the Black Sea Region of Turkey to the Eastern Anatolia. Following an excavation to create an area for housing on the northeast side of this highway, a large and rapid planar failure inclined to the southwest occurred. A large amount of fractured and weathered granitic material moved downward over this planar failure. After the failure, the highway was closed to traffic for 1 week, and more than ten houses on top of this failure were collapsed completely. The present study aims to investigate the mechanism of this failure. The study was performed using kinematical, limit equilibrium and numerical analyses for both post- and pre-failure conditions. Based on the detailed field observations, the failure mode was determined to be planar, and the slide mechanism was determined to be controlled by three fault planes. As a result of these analyses, it can be concluded that the slope before failure had critical conditions and that the excavation and uncontrolled blasting triggered and accelerated the slope failure.     

Application of fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to landslide susceptibility mapping at Haraz watershed, Iran

The main goal of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps of a landslide-prone area (Haraz) in Iran by using both fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) models. At first, landslide locations were identified by aerial photographs and field surveys, and a total of 78 landslides were mapped from various sources. Then, the landslide inventory was randomly split into a training dataset 70?% (55 landslides) for training the models and the remaining 30?% (23 landslides) was used for validation purpose. Twelve data layers, as the landslide conditioning factors, are exploited to detect the most susceptible areas. These factors are slope degree, aspect, plan curvature, altitude, lithology, land use, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, stream power index, slope length, and topographic wetness index. Subsequently, landslide susceptibility maps were produced using fuzzy logic and AHP models. For verification, receiver operating characteristics curve and area under the curve approaches were used. The verification results showed that the fuzzy logic model (89.7?%) performed better than AHP (81.1?%) model for the study area. The produced susceptibility maps can be used for general land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose.