论塔里木地台北缘中元古宙兴地运动

在塔里木地台北缘库鲁克塔格断隆上,发现晚元古宙帕尔岗群与其下伏兴地塔格群之间为角度不整合。进一步研究了中元古宙兴地塔格群和晚元古宙帕尔岗塔格群在沉积建造、变质作用、构造样式和岩浆活动等方面的差异,证明中元古宙末期曾发生强烈构造运动——兴地运动。它在1.3～1.4Ga达到高潮,0.95～1Ga时结束,形成塔里木地台基底。根据构造要素的叠加关系和变形特征,将这次构造运动划分为三个变形幕。     

X-ray imagery and physical core logging as a proxy of the content of sediment cores in cold-water coral mound provinces: a case study from Porcupine Seabight,SW of Ireland

Three provinces, characterized by the presence of carbonate mounds interpreted as cold-water coral banks have been reported in Porcupine Seabight, SW of Ireland and were recently subjected to many detailed studies. This contribution discusses the use of X-ray imagery and physical properties in deciphering palaeoceanographic, sedimentological and biological processes. Physical property core logging and X-ray imagery are used to identify and describe sedimentation regimes and so their respective palaeoceanographic and palaeoclimatological settings in two mound provinces, respectively the Belgica mound province and the Magellan mound province. Both provinces show at present time clear differences in the hydrodynamic environment. This study confirms that also during the past the oceanographic and sedimentological environment of both provinces differ clearly. Impacts of glacial–interglacial variations and locally derived ice rafting events (IRE), comparable with the North Atlantic Heinrich events (HE) have been recognized in both provinces. Moreover, the combination of X-ray imagery, magnetic susceptibility, gamma density and P-wave velocity makes it possible to estimate the coral content and coral distribution in unopened cores localized on top of carbonate mounds. A comparison between on-mound and off-mound cores in both provinces allowed revealing some mechanisms of mound evolution and coral growth versus time.     

冷锋附近地面场中尺度特征及其与强对流天气的关系

本文利用山东潍坊台站提供的山东半岛部分加密测站地面场逐时资料和欧州中期预报中心（ECMWF）的逐日12时（GMT）大尺度纬带网格资料和国家气象局历史天气图，对一次冷锋在地面场的中尺度结构及其与强对能天气的关系和大尺度环境条件进行了诊断．结果发现：沿冷锋产生强天气的锋线附近存在类似于重力惯性波的中尺度波动；锋后中尺度冷高与强天气的分布有关；大尺度环境为强夭气产生提供了有利的条件。     

Geochemical processes in a Mediterranean Lake: a high-resolution study of the last 4,000 years in Zoñar Lake,southern Spain

High-resolution geochemical analysis of a 6-m-long sediment core from Zoñar Lake, southern Spain, provides a detailed characterization of major changes in lake and watershed processes during the last 4,000 years. Geochemical variables were used as paleolimnological indicators and complement Zoñar Lakes’s paleoenvironmental reconstruction based on sedimentological and biological proxies, which define periods of increasing allochthonous input to the lake and periods of dominant autochthonous sedimentation. Chemical ratios identify periods of endogenic carbonate formation (higher Ca/Al, Sr/Al and Ba/Al ratios), evaporite precipitation (higher S/Al, Sr/Al ratios), and anoxic conditions (higher Mo/Al, U/Th ratios and Eu anomaly). Higher productivity is marked by elevated organic carbon content and carbonate precipitation (Mg/Ca). Hydrological reconstruction for Zoñar Lake was based on sedimentological, mineralogical and biological proxies, and shows that lower lake levels are characterized by Sr-rich sediments (a brackish lake with aragonite) and S-rich sediments (a saline lake with gypsum), while higher lake levels are characterized by sediments enriched in elements associated with alumino-silicates (Al, K, Ti, Fe, trace and rare earth elements), reflecting fresher conditions. Geochemical indicators also mark periods of higher detrital input to the lake related to human activity in the watershed: (1) during the Iberian Roman Humid Period (650 BC–AD 300), around the onset of the Little Ice Age (AD 1400), during the relatively drier Post-Roman and Middle Ages (AD 800–1400), and over the last 50 years, due to mechanized farming practices. Heavy metal enrichment in the sediments (Cu and Ni) suggests intensification of human activities during the Iberian Roman Period, and the use of fertilizers during the last 50 years.     

Impacts of systematic precipitation bias on simulations of water and energy balances in Northwest America

At high latitudes and in mountainous areas, evaluation and validation of water and energy flux simu-lations are greatly affected by systematic precipitation errors. These errors mainly come from topographic effects and undercatch of precipitation gauges. In this study, the Land Dynamics （LAD） land surface model is used to investigate impacts of systematic precipitation bias from topography and wind-blowing on water and energy flux simulation in Northwest America. The results show that topographic and wind adjustment reduced bias of streamflow simulations when compared with observed streamflow at 14 basins. These systematic biases resulted in a -50%-100% bias for runoff simulations, a -20%-20% bias for evapotranspiration, and a -40%-40% bias for sensible heat flux, subject to different locations and adjustments, when compared with the control run. Uncertain gauge adjustment leads to a 25% uncertainty for precipitation, a 20% 100% uncertainty for runoff simulation, a less-than-10% uncertainty for evapotranspiration, and a less-than-20% uncertainty for sensible heat flux.     

宁夏沙地主要灌木饲料林树种经济性状分析

经过对大量的野外调查数据的分析和研究，建立了宁夏沙地主要灌木饲料林树种毛条、柠条、沙柳、花棒丛生物量（鲜重）（地上部分）的多元线性回归方程，用半定位观测方法测定了这四个灌木树种丛生物量（鲜重）可食部分与不可食部分之比以及生物量的干鲜比，并给出了它们的营养成分。可为灌木饲料林的经营和管理提供理论依据。     

Predicting rock size distribution in mine blasting using various novel soft computing models based on meta-heuristics and machine learning algorithms

Blasting is well-known as an effective method for fragmenting or moving rock in open-pit mines. To evaluate the quality of blasting, the size of rock distribution is used as a critical criterion in blasting operations. A high percentage of oversized rocks generated by blasting operations can lead to economic and environmental damage. Therefore, this study proposed four novel intelligent models to predict the size of rock distribution in mine blasting in order to optimize blasting parameters, as well as the efficiency of blasting operation in open mines. Accordingly, a nature-inspired algorithm (i.e., firefly algorithm – FFA) and different machine learning algorithms (i.e., gradient boosting machine (GBM), support vector machine (SVM), Gaussian process (GP), and artificial neural network (ANN)) were combined for this aim, abbreviated as FFA-GBM, FFA-SVM, FFA-GP, and FFA-ANN, respectively. Subsequently, predicted results from the abovementioned models were compared with each other using three statistical indicators (e.g., mean absolute error, root-mean-squared error, and correlation coefficient) and color intensity method. For developing and simulating the size of rock in blasting operations, 136 blasting events with their images were collected and analyzed by the Split-Desktop software. In which, 111 events were randomly selected for the development and optimization of the models. Subsequently, the remaining 25 blasting events were applied to confirm the accuracy of the proposed models. Herein, blast design parameters were regarded as input variables to predict the size of rock in blasting operations. Finally, the obtained results revealed that the FFA is a robust optimization algorithm for estimating rock fragmentation in bench blasting. Among the models developed in this study, FFA-GBM provided the highest accuracy in predicting the size of fragmented rocks. The other techniques (i.e., FFA-SVM, FFA-GP, and FFA-ANN) yielded lower computational stability and efficiency. Hence, the FFA-GBM model can be used as a powerful and precise soft computing tool that can be applied to practical engineering cases aiming to improve the quality of blasting and rock fragmentation.     

Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

北极海冰的年代际转型与中国冻雨年代际变化的关系

基于1961-2013年HadISST海冰密集度资料,定义了北极海冰的季节性融冰指数,结果显示近几十年来北极季节性融冰范围呈显著的上升趋势,并分别在20世纪70年代末和90年代中期存在显著的年代际转型,相应地,中国冻雨发生频数总体上呈现出显著的减少趋势,但也存在显著的年代际转型。在20世纪70年代末之前,北极季节性融冰范围较小但显著增长,中国冻雨频数年际变化振幅较大,且主要受巴伦支海、喀拉海海冰的影响;20世纪70年代末至90年代中期北极季节性融冰范围维持振荡特征,没有显著的线性趋势,中国冻雨频数变化振幅减小,与北极海冰相关较弱,主要相关因子为北大西洋及北太平洋海表温度变化;而90年代中期以后,北极海冰融化加快,特别是2007年以后,季节性融冰范围大大增加,而中国冻雨频数处于低发时段,其变化与太平洋扇区海冰及堪察加半岛附近海温呈显著负相关,季节性融冰的显著区域也从东西伯利亚海逆时针旋转向波弗特海-加拿大群岛北部扩张,同时向北极中央区扩张。不同年代影响冻雨的海温或海冰关键海区不同,产生特定的大气环流异常响应,进而影响到我国冻雨。