三维相干切片断层多边形检测

作者在本文中将三维切片视为二维图像，利用图像边缘检测技术，检测出相干切片上断层多边形，并将其直接投影到测网底图上，用于构造成图。该项技术不仅提高了用相干切片解释断层的精度，而且提高了断层解释效率，使相干数据体技术在三维解释中的作用得到更大的发挥。实际应用表明，三维相干切片断层多边形检测技术，是全三维高精度解释的有力工具，提高了解释效率，缩短了解释周期。     

Transition of Quaternary glacial cyclicity in deep-sea records at Nansha, the South China Sea

High-resolution oxygen isotope records over the last 2249 ka (MIS 1–86) have been obtained from cores of the upper section (105.08 m) at ODP Site 1143 (water depth of 2772 m) drilled in the Nansha area, southern South China Sea. The sampling resolution is at about 2 ka intervals, resulting in one of the best oxygen isotope records over the global ocean. The oxygen isotope curves, displaying details in the Pleistocene glacial cycles, have revealed a nearly 300 ka long stage of transition from a predominant 40 ka to 100 ka periodicity. Therefore, the “Mid-Pleistocene Revolution” should be considered as a process of transition rather than an abrupt change. Within the 100 ka glacial cycles, the changes in tropical sea surface water were found to lead those in high-latitude ice sheet. Our comparisons show that the ice sheet expansion and the glacial stage extension in the Northern Hemisphere with the 100 ka cycles must have been driven not by ice sheet itself, but by processes outside the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.     

塔里木盆地岩石层热结构特征

在大地热流密度分布的基础上，研究了塔里木盆地中库尔勒－若羌和阿克苏－叶城两条剖面岩石层热结构特征．由岩石层Ｐ波速度分布转换成生热率剖面，用二维数值模型获得了岩石层热结构和热状态特征．结果表明，塔里木盆地壳幔边界温度的高低与其埋深密切相关．居里等温面深度大，地幔热流密度较低．岩石层厚度变化与其新生代期间挠曲过程密切相关．在岩石层温度分布基础上，确定了深部脆－韧性过渡带深度和岩石层屈服强度，表明塔里木盆地岩石层相对较冷，且具有刚性的地球动力学特征．     

SECONDARY SHEAR WAVES FROM SOURCE BOREHOLES1

Previous studies of radiation from point sources in fluid-filled boreholes have most often been based on far-field, stationary phase analysis. In these papers, the explicit contribution of the borehole itself acting as a waveguide has not been properly considered, with a few exceptions. In general, these studies accurately describe S-wave radiation in high-velocity rocks such as granites and limestones and P-wave radiation in most rocks, and experiments have confirmed this. However, tube waves directly influence the external wavefield and in fact create a shear-wave ‘wake’ outside the borehole due to constructive interference of tube-wave emission if a velocity condition is met. This constructive interference or wake is generated when the tube-wave velocity is greater than the shear-wave velocity. When this happens, a tube-wave complex pole invalidates the mathematical assumptions for stationary phase analysis and the stationary phase predictions do not agree with experimentally derived radiation patterns. Shales at shallow depths and other soft sediments characteristically have tube-wave velocities greater than shear-wave velocities. Because the tube-wave is of relatively high amplitude compared to body waves generated directly by the source, these secondary shear waves can be the highest amplitude arrivals on receiver arrays. The shape and properties of these secondary shear waves are calculated and shown to have identical properties to Mach waves of aerodynamics and seismology. For instance, these waves are geometrically conical and the aperture of the cone and the moveout velocity can be calculated. This paper also demonstrates the important effect that casing has on the Mach waves and provides predictions about when these waves are likely to be observed. Finally, evidence of Mach waves in data sets is examined and it is shown how these waves have been confused with receiver borehole tube waves. It is possible, though rare, that the tube-wave velocity of the borehole is greater than the compressional-wave velocity of the surrounding medium. In this case secondary compressional or compressional Mach waves would be generated although this problem is not addressed here.     

BOREHOLE STONELEY WAVE PROPAGATION ACROSS PERMEABLE STRUCTURES1

This study investigates the propagation of borehole Stoneley waves across permeable structures. By modelling the structure as a zone intersecting the borehole, a simple 1D theory is formulated to treat the interaction of the Stoneley wave with the structure. This is possible because the Stoneley wave is a guided wave, with no geometric spreading as it propagates along the borehole. The interaction occurs because the zone and the surrounding formation possess different Stoneley wavenumbers. Given appropriate representations of the wavenum-ber, the theory can be applied to treat a variety of structures, including a fluid-filled fracture. Of special interest are the cases of permeable porous zones and fracture zones. The results show that, while Stoneley wave reflections are generated, strong Stoneley wave attenuation is produced across a very permeable zone. This result is particularly important in explaining the observed strong Stoneley wave attenuation at major fractures where it has been difficult to explain the attenuation in terms of the single planar fracture theory. In addition, by using a simple and sufficiently accurate theory to model the effects of the permeable zone, a fast and efficient method is developed to characterize the fluid transport properties of a permeable fracture zone.     

天山造山带及邻区孕震应力场及断裂带活动性特征的数值实验分析

天山造山带构造环境复杂,活动断裂带和强震分布广泛,且主要分布于阿尔泰山、天山、西昆仑—帕米尔弧形构造带上,尤以天山地区最为集中.迄今为止,天山造山带地区的主要断裂带的活动特征与孕震应力场特征之间的动力学机理尚未有清晰的认识.本文以GPS等实际观测数据为约束,建立有限元数值模型,计算了研究区域地壳形变、应力/应变积累速率、弹性应变能密度以及库仑应力变化率等关键因素.模拟计算结果显示地表速度场与研究区域实际GPS观测值基本一致,且主要断裂带上弹性应变能密度分布与实际地震活动性也基本吻合,验证了数值模型和结果的可靠性.结合最新的观测和数值模拟结果分析发现,研究区的断层和地震活动性主要受控于近南北向的主压应力,与主要观测特征相一致.同时,帕米尔高原北部边界带—塔什库尔干断裂（TKF）、天山造山带南边界的东侧—迈丹断裂（MDF）、兴地断裂（XDF）库仑应力增大明显,在未来强震发生的可能性较高,应予密切关注.     

压力及流体对岩石孔隙结构与黏弹性的影响规律研究:理论模型及实验观测

地质成因和构造/热应力导致地壳岩石中的孔隙结构（裂隙和粒间孔）的变化.影响岩石黏弹性的因素包括压力、孔隙度、孔隙中包含的流体和孔隙几何形状等.相对于岩石中的硬孔隙,岩石黏弹性（衰减和频散）受软孔隙（裂隙）的影响更大.本文选取三块白云岩样本,进行了不同围压和流体条件下的超声波实验测量.利用CPEM（Cracks and Pores Effective Medium,裂隙和孔隙有效介质）模型获得了岩石高、低频极限的弹性模量,并通过Zener体（标准线性体）模型将CPEM模型拓展到全频带而得到CPEM-Zener模型,用该模型拟合岩石松弛和非松弛状态下的实验数据,本文得到平均裂隙纵横比和裂隙孔隙度以及纵波速度和品质因子随频率的变化关系.结果表明,饱水岩石的平均裂隙纵横比和裂隙孔隙度均高于饱油岩石,随着压差（围压和孔隙压力的差值）的增加,饱油岩石中的裂隙首先闭合.并且压差在70 MPa以内时,随着压差增大,岩石的平均裂隙纵横比和裂隙孔隙度在饱水和饱油时的差值增大,此时流体类型对于岩石裂隙的影响越来越显著,此外,对饱水岩石,平均裂隙纵横比随压差增加而增大,这可能是由于岩石中纵横比较小的裂隙会随压差增大而逐渐趋于闭合.在饱水和饱油岩石中,裂隙孔隙度和裂隙密度都随着压差增加而减小.通过对裂隙密度和压差的关系进行指数拟合,本文获得压差趋于0时的裂隙密度,且裂隙密度随孔隙度增大而增大,增大速率随压差增加而降低.针对饱水和饱油的白云岩样本,CPEM-Zener模型预测的纵波频散随压差增大而减小,此变化趋势和实验测得的逆品质因子随压差的变化关系基本一致,由此进一步验证了模型的实用性.本研究对岩石的孔隙结构和黏弹性分析以及声波测井、地震勘探的现场应用有指导意义.     

青藏高原北部地区地震统计区划分及地震活动特征

地震统计区的划分是研究地震活动性的重要前提和基础,通过对青藏高原北部地区构造地质背景的分析,依据地球物理特征和强震活动特点,讨论和划分该区地震活动统计区,探讨研究区地震活动的复发特点、地震构造特征、潜在地震危险性及强度,分析研究区未来强震发生的强度和可能地点,结果表明,目前青藏高原北部地区处于第8个活跃期,仍存在发生强震的可能,且未来数年存在发生7级以上地震的可能,应密切东昆仑断裂带东段和祁连山中西段地区。     

城市时空大数据驱动的新型冠状病毒传播风险评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

2019年末至2020年初新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)的快速传播对中国与世界的公共卫生带来巨大的挑战。如何科学合理地评估新型冠状病毒传播风险并制定相应防疫管控措施,是各国所面临的难题,也是科学防治与精准施策的重要依据之一。作为我国最重要的城市群之一,粤港澳大湾区受本次新型冠状病毒影响较大,且春节假期后大量的复工回流人口进一步带来潜在的传播风险。本文面向粤港澳大湾区新型冠状病毒传播风险评估的紧迫需求,结合大湾区多源城市时空大数据与流行病动力学模型,构建适宜大湾区的改进模型,并对新型冠状病毒在大湾区的传播风险和各类防疫管控措施效果进行评估与模拟。首先,引入动态复工回流人口和聚集热点改进现有动力学模型(SEIR模型),对现有动力学模型在不同空间评估单元的传播参数进行纠偏,加强模型在大湾区评估中的适宜性;利用手机信令等多源城市大数据,构建更精细化的人口、疾病流动矩阵和相应的传染病动力学模型,以满足各级防疫部门精细化(如村(社区)级)风险评估的迫切需求。模拟结果表明,相对经典SEIR模型,改进模型在大湾区的传播风险评估中具有更强的适宜性;大湾区高强度的人口流动为病毒的传播带来较高的风险;防疫部门所采取各类管控措施对病毒在大湾区的传播具有较强的抑制作用。