On 21–22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7–21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7–21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951–2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7–21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China. 相似文献
In 2013, Chang'E-3 program will develop lunar mineral resources in-situ detection. A Visible and Near-infrared Imaging Spectrometer (VNIS) has been selected as one payload of CE-3 lunar rover to achieve this goal. It is critical and urgent to evaluate VNIS' spectrum data quality and validate quantification methods for mineral composition before its launch. Ground validation experiment of VNIS was carried out to complete the two goals, by simulating CE-3 lunar rover's detection environment on lunar surface in the laboratory. Based on the hyperspectral reflectance data derived, Correlation Analysis and Partial Least Square (CA-PLS) algorithm is applied to predict abundance of four lunar typical minerals (pyroxene, plagioclase, ilmenite and olivine) in their mixture. We firstly selected a set of VNIS' spectral parameters which highly correlated with minerals' abundance by correlation analysis (CA), and then stepwise regression method was used to find out spectral parameters which make the largest contri- butions to the mineral contents. At last, functions were derived to link minerals' abundance and spectral parameters by partial least square (PLS) algorithm. Not considering the effect of maturity, agglutinate and Fe~, we found that there are wonderful correlations between these four minerals and VNIS' spectral parameters, e.g. the abundance of pyroxene correlates positively with the mixture's absorption depth, the value of absorption depth added as the in- creasing of pyroxene's abundance. But the abundance of plagioclase correlates negatively with the spectral parame- ters of band ratio, the value of band ratio would decrease when the abundance of plagioclase increased. Similar to plagioclase, the abundance of ilmenite and olivine has a negative correlation with the mixture's reflectance data, if the abundance of ilmenite or olivine increase, the reflectance values of the mixture will decrease. Through model validation, better estimates of pyroxene, plagioclase and ilmenite's abundances are given. It is concluded that VNIS has the capability to be applied on lunar minerals' identification, and CA-PLS algorithm has the potential to be used on lunar surface's in-situ detection for minerals' abundance prediction. 相似文献
The effect law of deformation and failure of a jointed rock mass is essential for underground engineering safety and stability evaluation. In order to study the evolution mechanism and precursory characteristics of instability and failure of jointed rock masses, uniaxial compression and acoustic emission (AE) tests are conducted on sandstones with different joint dip angles. To simulate the mechanical behavior of the rock, a jointed rock mass damage constitutive model with AE characteristic parameters is created based on damage mechanics theory and taking into account the effect of rock mass structure and load coupling. To quantify the mechanism of rock instability, a cusp catastrophe model with AE characteristic parameters is created based on catastrophe theory. The results indicate that when the joint dip angle increases from 0° to 90°, the failure mechanism of sandstone shifts from tensile to shear, with 45° being the critical failure mode. Sandstone's compressive strength reduces initially and subsequently increases, resulting in a U-shaped distribution. The developed damage constitutive model's theoretical curve closely matches the test curve, indicating that the model can reasonably describe the damage evolution of sandstone. The cusp catastrophe model has a high forecast accuracy, and when combined with the damage constitutive model, the prediction accuracy can be increased further. The research results can provide theoretical guidance for the safety and stability evaluation of underground engineering.
X-ray diffraction analysis of black shale of Upper Triassic Member Chang 7 of the Yanchang Formation in southeastern Ordos Basin showed that black shales were deposited in brackish, strongly reducing, semi-deep-deep lacustrine facies, and mainly composed of quartz, feldspar, carbonate (dolomite), clay minerals (illite and il- lite/smectite) and a certain amount of pyrite. The mineral composition characteristics of this set of black shales are similar to those of highly productive shale gas in North America, for example shallow burial, low clay mineral and abundant brittle mineral, so the strata are conducive to the development of cracks and fractures. Thus, this area is favorable for shale oil/gas exploration and development. 相似文献