Effective typhoon characteristics and their effects on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting

This paper describes the identification of effective typhoon characteristics and the development of a new type of hourly reservoir inflow forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics. Firstly, a comparison of support vector machines (SVMs), which is a novel kind of neural networks (NNs), and back-propagation networks (BPNs) is made to select an appropriate NN-based model. The results show that SVM-based models are more appropriate than BPN-based models because of their higher accuracy and much higher efficiency. In addition, effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified from all the collected typhoon information. Then the effective typhoon characteristics (the position of the typhoon and the distance between the typhoon center and the reservoir) are added to the proposed SVM-based models. Next, a performance comparison of models with and without effective typhoon characteristics is conducted to clearly highlight the effects of effective typhoon characteristics on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting. To reach a just conclusion, the performance is evaluated by cross validation, and the improvement in performance due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics is tested by paired comparison t-tests at the 5% significance level. The results confirm that effective typhoon characteristics do improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially when the rainfall data are not available. For four- to six-hour ahead forecasts, the improvement due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics increases from 3% to 18% and from 10% to 113% for Categories I (rainfall data are available) and II (rainfall data are not available), respectively. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoons. The proposed SVM-based models with effective typhoon characteristics are expected to provide more accurate forecasts than BPN-based models. The proposed modeling technique is also expected to be useful to support reservoir operation systems and other disaster warning systems.     

自然资源资产负债表基本概念释义

自然资源资产负债表是遵循会计学中资产负债表的逻辑范式,以衡量资源环境损益为核算理念,能够客观、全面、系统地反映特定时空内自然资源的数量与质量、存量与流量的信息系统.其核算对象所赋有的环境与经济属性,以及肩负的“服务自然资源管理,防范生态风险,评价政府生态责任”功能定位,决定了自然资源资产负债表在计量假设、核算路径、配套制度建设等方面同“企业资产负债表”、“环境经济综合核算”、“国家资产负债表”存在差异性.     

Study on electric variations of media in epicentral area by geomagnetic transfer functions

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塔里木河流域土地开发的生态响应研究

60 a来塔里木河流域耕地面积净增100×10⁴ hm²,在流域内部形成众多生态环境安全问题。通过选取水资源生态环境指数、社会生态环境指数和生态环境压力指数,运用ESDA空间分析方法和GWR模型对塔里木河流域35 a间土地开发与生态时空演变特征和空间响应关系进行研究,构建"土地开发-生态风险预警"模型,得出以下结论：1980-2015年克孜勒苏州和喀什地区生态等级正向转移比例较大,有84.86%的比例由较低等级（I）正向转移为低等级（Ⅱ）;和田地区的克里雅河流域,阿克苏北部区域以及塔里木河末端且末县等级退化严重,负向转移比例23.46%。和田、阿克苏、喀什地区每增加1.0×10⁴ hm²未利用地开垦规模,综合生态环境分值下降0.60到0.35,而克孜勒苏州则上升1.3~2.1;上游喀什与中游阿克苏两地区每1.0×10⁴ hm²生态退耕,每年将分别化解32.06×10⁴ t和15.60×10⁴ t化肥污染压力。阿克苏地区与巴音郭楞州土地开发生态风险达到环境资源承载力指数的75%以上,预警程度超过Ⅱ级,而克孜勒苏州土地开发处于生态安全范围。每1.0×10⁴ hm²未利用土地开发,全流域风险指数增长均值为0.003 4,下游巴音郭楞州在增加15×10⁴~20×10⁴ hm²耕地后,生态风险将逼近并超过环境预警界限,上游克孜勒苏州将在15 a之后进入中度警告阶段。     

Three-dimensional hybrid modelling of soil-structure interaction

A three-dimensional hybrid model for the analysis of soil-structure interaction under dynamic conditions is developed which takes advantage of the desirable features of the finite element and substructure methods and which minimizes their undesirable features. The modelling is achieved by partitioning the total soil-structure system into a near-field and a far-field with a hemispherical interface. The near-field, which consists of the structure to be analysed and a finite region of soil around it, is modelled by finite elements. The semi-infinite far-field is modelled by distributed impedance functions at the interface which are determined by system identification methods. Numerical results indicate that the proposed model makes possible realistic and economical assessment of three-dimensional soil-structure interaction for both surface and embedded structures.     

基于等高线隔断线确定DEM适宜分辨率的方法研究

分辨率是等高线数据插值生成格网DEM数据过程中需要考虑的一个重要参数,适宜的分辨率既能将等高线高程信息尽可能保留,又不会因插值造成数据冗余及误差。基于对格网DEM生成方式的理解,提出了等高线隔断线的相关概念,分析了基于地形图矢量化的等高线数据插值生成格网DEM数据,由不同长度等高线隔断线频率统计来确定格网适宜分辨率参考值的方法。同时,不同长度等高线隔断线的长度与其频率相乘得到标准长度,以及等高线隔断线中心点生成的密度分析图,均可在频率特征决定适宜分辨率参考值时起到一定的参考作用。通过样区实验验证,实现简便,可度量性强,与其他相关研究具有一致性,对确定适宜格网分辨率参考值具有一定的借鉴意义。     

中国大陆科学钻探靶区深部温度预测

依据中国大陆科学钻探(CCSD)两口先导孔中地热测量和岩石样品热物性参数,对5000m深钻的可能钻遇温度进行了预测.先导孔中地温梯度介于1-26℃/km;岩石热导率变化为2.64-8.81W/(m@K),平均(3.4±1.26)W/(m@K);实测热流值为76-80mW/m2;30块岩石样品放射性生热率变化为(0.0-2.17)μW/m3,450m深度以上层平均(0.76±0.5)μW/m3,以下层段平均(0.48±0.2)μW/m3,生热率随深度递减,但变化趋势难以明确判定.分别对热流和热导率取上、下限,采用不同的生热率随深度的分布函数,区分考虑或不考虑热导率的温度相关性,分别计算出5000m深度内可能的温度分布剖面.计算结果表明,超深井于5000m垂直深度上的温度将达到110-140℃,2000m深度的探井钻遇温度将介于54-64℃.此外,考虑热导率的温度效应后预测的温度一般高于未考虑热导率温度效应5-8℃.     

木荷马尾松群落凋落物养分归还量年变化格局分析

对福州市国家森林公园木荷马尾松群落凋落物养分归还量年变化格局进行了分析．群落通过枯枝落叶形式每年向林地归还养分（N、P、K、Ca、Mg、Fe、Mn、Cu、Zn）总量为217．310kg·hm^-2．其中5种大量元素年归还量顺序为N〉Ca〉K〉Mg〉P,4种微量元素的为Fe〉Mn〉Zn〉Cu．群落通过落叶归还于林地的养分量占总量的80．49％,并以木荷叶为主,它主导了中亚热带木荷马尾松林凋落物的年凋落量及养分归还量．9种营养元素归还量在不同月份间的变化很大,在4月N、P、K、Mg、Mn达到第一个归还高峰,8月N、P、K、Ca、Mg、Fe、Mn又出现第二个归还高峰;Ca、Fe、Cu、Zn的第一个归还高峰在5月,Cu和zn的第二个归还高峰在7月,在11月除Cu外各养分元素又有一个小归还峰．凋落物的C／N年变化量在27．38～40．29之间,C／P年变化值在1045～1703之间．在4种组分中,以落叶对N、K、Mg、Mn年归还的贡献最大,落枝对Ca、Cu、Zn年归还的贡献最大,落果对P的年归还贡献最大,而花及杂物对Fe的年归还贡献最大,养分利用效率以P和4种微量元素的较大,它们（特别是P）较易成为中亚热带木荷马尾松林生长的限制因子．     

煤层气井井身结构的地质适应性与优化方法——以黔西地区为例

结合黔西地区煤层群赋存的地质特点和钻井难点,从工程实际和储层保护出发,分析了现有煤层气参数井、预探井井身结构的地质适应性,划分出4种地层(含煤体)结构条件;提出了不同条件下设计与施工优化的4类8种配套井身结构变化形式,并对其优缺点和适用范围进行了分析评价,以期为复杂地质条件下煤层气探井的井身结构设计提供新的思路。