Importance of Air-Sea Coupling in Simulating Tropical Cyclone Intensity at Landfall

An atmosphere-only model system for making seasonal prediction and projecting future intensities of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) along the South China coast is upgraded by including ocean and wave models. A total of 642 TCs have been re-simulated using the new system to produce a climatology of TC intensity in the South China Sea. Detailed comparisons of the simulations from the atmosphere-only and the fully coupled systems reveal that the inclusion of the additional ocean and wave models enable differential sea surface temperature responses to various TC characteristics such as translational speed and size. In particular, interaction with the ocean does not necessarily imply a weakening of the TC, with the coastal bathymetry possibly playing a role in causing a near-shore intensification of the TC. These results suggest that to simulate the evolution of TC structure more accurately, it is essential to use an air-sea coupled model instead of an atmosphere-only model.     

Recent Decrease in the Difference in Tropical Cyclone Occurrence between the Atlantic and the Western North Pacific

Climatologically, among all ocean basins, the western North Pacific (WNP) has the largest annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) of around 26 while the Atlantic has around 13, yielding a difference of 13. However, the difference is –7 in 2020, with 30 TCs in the Atlantic and 23 in the WNP, which is the most negative difference within the last 46 years. In fact, during the last 26 years, the difference in TC number is below 10 in ten years, with four years being negative. Such a decreasing difference in TC number can be attributed to the natural multidecadal variation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, as well as other external forcings such as anthropogenic aerosol forcing and increased greenhouse gases, with the additional impact from the La Ni?a condition. This result has significant implications on climate model projections of future TC activity in the two ocean basins.     

Variational Quality Control of Non-Gaussian Innovations in the GRAPES m3DVAR System: Mass Field Evaluation of Assimilation Experiments

The existence of outliers can seriously influence the analysis of variational data assimilation. Quality control allows us to effectively eliminate or absorb these outliers to produce better analysis fields. In particular, variational quality control(VarQC) can process gray zone outliers and is thus broadly used in variational data assimilation systems. In this study,governing equations are derived for two VarQC algorithms that utilize different contaminated Gaussian distributions(CGDs): Gaussian plus flat distribution and Huber norm distribution. As such, these VarQC algorithms can handle outliers that have non-Gaussian innovations. Then, these VarQC algorithms are implemented in the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System(GRAPES) model-level three-dimensional variational data assimilation(m3 DVAR) system. Tests using artificial observations indicate that the VarQC method using the Huber distribution has stronger robustness for including outliers to improve posterior analysis than the VarQC method using the Gaussian plus flat distribution. Furthermore,real observation experiments show that the distribution of observation analysis weights conform well with theory,indicating that the application of VarQC is effective in the GRAPES m3 DVAR system. Subsequent case study and longperiod data assimilation experiments show that the spatial distribution and amplitude of the observation analysis weights are related to the analysis increments of the mass field(geopotential height and temperature). Compared to the control experiment, VarQC experiments have noticeably better posterior mass fields. Finally, the VarQC method using the Huber distribution is superior to the VarQC method using the Gaussian plus flat distribution, especially at the middle and lower levels.     

Time series analyses of hydrological parameter variations and their correlations at a coastal area in Busan,South Korea

Monitoring and time-series analysis of the hydrological parameters electrical conductivity (EC), water pressure, precipitation and tide were carried out, to understand the characteristics of the parameter variations and their correlations at a coastal area in Busan, South Korea. The monitoring data were collected at a sharp interface between freshwater and saline water at the depth of 25 m below ground. Two well-logging profiles showed that seawater intrusion has largely expanded (progressed inland), and has greatly affected the groundwater quality in a coastal aquifer of tuffaceous sedimentary rock over a 9-year period. According to the time series analyses, the periodograms of the hydrological parameters present very similar trends to the power spectral densities (PSD) of the hydrological parameters. Autocorrelation functions (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) of the hydrological parameters were produced to evaluate their self-correlations. The ACFs of all hydrologic parameters showed very good correlation over the entire time lag, but the PACF revealed that the correlations were good only at time lag 1. Crosscorrelation functions (CCF) were used to evaluate the correlations between the hydrological parameters and the characteristics of seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer system. The CCFs showed that EC had a close relationship with water pressure and precipitation rather than tide. The CCFs of water pressure with tide and precipitation were in inverse proportion, and the CCF of water pressure with precipitation was larger than that with tide.     

铀矿勘查中地表探矿工程成果信息化研究与实践——放射性测量数据自动化成图

铀矿勘查中,实施地表探矿工程来揭示区内地质及矿化现象是一个行之有效且常用的方法,其矿化成果信息主要由放射性测量成果图件展现,目前主要靠手工素描完成,但存在费时且图件不美观等问题。因此,笔者提出了自动化成图的构想,开发了一款辅助软件来对放射性测量数据进行数据处理,将多参数坐标转换为标准坐标格式,支持Surfer软件数据网格化处理和Mapgis软件输出成果图件,实现自动化成图。经大量地表工程验证,证实辅助软件输出数据准确、可靠,通过Surfer、Mapgis软件实现了放射性测量数据自动化成图。此方法可取代传统手工素描绘图和Mapgis软件矢量化成图等耗时的步骤,将为放射性编录工作带来极大便利,进一步提升成果图件的标准化,提高物探编录的工作效率。     

厚覆盖区找矿“循环渐近式勘查技术体系”与应用

覆盖区找矿难度不仅与覆盖层厚度有关,还与覆盖层物性、水文地质条件以及矿体特征关系密切。覆盖区找矿突破是一个系统过程,需要经历选区—圈靶—定位—验证评价4个阶段,存在勘查选区、地质信息探测和多学科有效融合难题。前人较少研究覆盖区找矿突破过程与勘查技术体系,笔者等基于“现有技术+结合实际创新”思路,总结提出了厚覆盖区找矿“循环渐近式勘查技术体系”,在实际应用中,能够提高找矿成功率,入选自然资源部《矿产资源节约和综合利用先进适用技术目录(2019年版）》。     

粉土与粉质黏土互层中静压桩桩土界面孔隙水压力

为研究层状黏性土在静压桩沉桩过程中桩土界面孔隙水压力的分布规律,依托山东东营某桩基工程开展了现场足尺静压桩试验,分析了桩土界面孔隙水压力的变化规律,探讨了桩土界面超孔隙水压力的分布特征,明确了桩土界面孔隙水压力和超孔隙水压力的消散特性,并结合水力压裂理论和孔穴扩张理论,揭示了沉桩过程中桩土界面沿桩长方向超孔隙水压力的分布形式。试验结果表明：孔隙水压力、超孔隙水压力与土层性质密切相关,二者均在粉土层中增长较慢,在粉质黏土层中增长较快;在同一深度处,两者均存在明显的消散现象,在粉土中的消散程度明显大于粉质黏土中;采用水力压裂理论结合孔穴扩张理论计算的超孔隙水压力沿桩长方向的变化规律与试验值相吻合;桩身贯入深度越大,超孔隙水压力理论计算值与现场实测值越接近。     

Estimation of submarine groundwater discharge in the Il‐Gwang watershed using water budget analysis and 222Rn mass balance

Submarine groundwater discharges (SGD) were investigated in a marine watershed in south‐eastern Korea using water budget analysis and a ²²²Rn mass balance model. Multi‐layered TOPMODEL added hydrological assumption was used to estimate groundwater components in the water budget analysis. Field observations of soil moisture, rainfall, runoff and groundwater fluctuations were used for calibration and validation of the hydrologic model. Based on observed hydrological data and terrain analyses, parameters for the hydrologic model were delineated and used to describe several hydrologic responses in the watershed. SGD estimations by ²²²Rn mass balance method were also performed at Il‐Gwang bay in July, 2010, and May, June, July and Nov. 2011. The estimated groundwater through hydrologic modeling and water balance analysis was 1.3x10⁶ m³/year, which rapidly increased during typhoon season due to heavy rainfall and permeable geologic structure. The estimated groundwater was approximately 3.7–27.1% of SGD as evaluated by ²²²Rn mass balance method ranges 3.44 and 17.45 m³m^?2year^?1. Even though SGD is predominantly influenced by tide fluctuation, the head gradient (difference) from hydrologic processes associated with heavy rainfalls can also have extra significant influences. Comprehensive understanding of SGD evaluation can be improved through a simultaneous application of both these approaches. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.