The Development of Seasonal and Inter-Annual Climate Forecasting

A review of the development and status of seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting up until 2001 is presented covering not only the successes but also identifying some of the major challenges remaining. Included is discussion on the history of the enterprise; the scientific basis of modern seasonal to inter-annual prediction and its background of predictability theory; the current status of predictions and the measurement of their skill; the experiences and consequences of the 1997–1998 El Niño event; approaches to linking forecasts with applications; and a view to the future.     

The impact of discharges from seafood processing on southeastern estuaries

A study to determine the impact of seafood packing and processing effluents discharged to southeastern estuarine waters was conducted in July and August of 1979. The environmental impact of current seafood processing wastes on Georgia’s estuaries appears to be minimal when compared with the natural organic load. One large estuary demonstrated a high residual capacity to receive processing effluents without significant change. The BOD load from shrimp thawing, peeling, sorting, and cleaning operations at a large seafood processing plant was shown to be equivalent to the organic material generated by a 302 m² plot (57 ft×57 ft) of salt marsh. NH₄?N levels were greater than, but the same order of magnitude as, natural runoff from marsh land.     

Poles of rotation

One of the concepts introduced into the theory of plate tectonics is that of poles of rotation. It is supposed that the relative motion between two rigid plates can be described by the rotation of one of the plates about a pole of rotation, which shows the direction of the rotation vector. It has been pointed out that in general poles of rotation will not remain fixed. The consequences of poles of rotation which move slowly with time are examined. In particular, it is shown that fracture zones may lie very close to small circles, but that the centers of these small circles may lie as much as 20° away from the average pole of rotation. The establishment of poles of rotation from individual fracture zones is thus an inaccurate method unless it can also be shown that the pole of rotation has remained fixed.     

2007: International Heliophysical Year

The International Heliophysical Year is an international programme of global research to understand the external drivers of the space environment and climate, continuing the tradition of previous International Years. It is introduced here by Richard Harrison, Andy Breen, Barbara Bromage and Joe Davila.     

Perception visual range and sky background

Abstract

The meteorological visual range V_m and the perception visual range V_p have been measured for a variety of horizon sky backgrounds and atmospheric extinction conditions. Comparison with the standard visibility V_n shows that in general V_p > V_m > V_n . Model calculations of V_p, V_m and V_n for different synthetic sky backgrounds and for an extinction coefficient function of the form σ(λ) = k λ^‐α in which a was varied from ‐1 to 4 show that the wavelength of maximum perception can vary between ～540 and ～630 nm. Under typically turbid or polluted atmospheric conditions and for a blue or white sky background the extinction coefficient should be measured at ‐570 nm if prevailing visibility is to be reliably estimated.     

Rare earth partitioning between immiscible carbonate and silicate liquids and CO2 vapor: Results and implications for the formation of light rare earth-enriched rocks

Melting relations at 5 and 20 kbar on the composition join sanidine-potassium carbonate are dominated by a two-liquid region that covers over 60% of the join at 1,300 ° C. At this temperature, the silicate melt contains approximately 19 wt% carbonate component at 5 kbar and 32 wt% carbonate component at 20 kbar. The conjugate carbonate melt contains less than 5 wt% silicate component, and it varies less as a function of temperature than does the silicate melt.Partition coefficients for Ce, Sm, and Tm between the immiscible carbonate and silicate melts at 1,200 ° and 1,300 ° C at 5 and 20 kbar are in favor of the carbonate melt by a factor of 2–3 for light REE and 5–8 for heavy REE. The effect of pressure on partitioning cannot be evaluated independently because of complementary changes in melt compositions.Minimum REE partition coefficients for CO₂ vapor/carbonate melt and CO₂ vapor/silicate melt can be calculated from the carbonate melt/silicate melt partition coefficients, the known proportions of melt, and maximum estimates of the proportion of CO₂ vapor. The vapor phase is enriched in light REE relative to both melts at 20 kbar and enriched in all REE, especially the light elements, at 5 kbar. The enrichment of REE in CO₂ vapor relative to both melts is 3–4 orders of magnitude in excess of that in water vapor (Mysen, 1979) at 5 kbar and is approximately the same as that in water vapor at 20 kbar.Mantle metasomatism by a CO₂-rich vapor enriched in light REE, occurring as a precursor to magma genesis, may explain the enhanced REE contents and light REE enrichment of carbonatites, alkali-rich silicate melts, and kimberlites. Light REE enrichment in fenites and the granular suite of nodules from kimberlites attests to the mobility of REE in CO₂-rich fluids under both mantle and crustal conditions.     

An experimental investigation of the partitioning of REE between garnet and liquid with reference to the role of defect equilibria

The partitioning of samarium and thulium between garnets and melts in the systems Mg₃Al₂-Si₃O₁₂-H₂O and Ca₃Al₂Si₃O₁₂-H₂O has been studied as a function of REE concentration in the garnets at 30 kbar pressure. Synthesis experiments of variable time under constant P, T conditions indicate that garnet initially crystallizes rapidly to produce apparent values of D _Sm (D _Sm=concentration of Sm in garnet/concentration of Sm in liquid) which are too large in the case of pyrope and too small in the case of grossular. As the experiment proceeds, Sm diffuses out of or into the garnet and the equilibrium value of D _Sm is approached. Approximate values of diffusion coefficients for Sm in pyrope garnet obtained by this method are 6 × 10^–13 cm² s^–1 at 1,300 ° C and 2 × 10^–12 cm² s^–1 at 1,500 ° C, and for grossular, 8.3 × 10^–12 cm² s^–1 at 1,200 ° C and 4.6 × 10^–11 cm² s^–1 at 1,300 ° C. The equilibrium values of D _Sm have been reversed by experiments with Sm-free pyrope and Sm-bearing glass, and with Sm-bearing grossular and Sm-free glass.Between 12 ppm and 1,000 ppm Sm in pyrope at 1,300 ° C and between 80 ppm and >2 wt.% Tm in pyrope at 1,500 ° C, partition coefficients are constant and independent of REE concentration. Above 100 ppm of Sm in garnet at 1,500 ° C, partition coefficients are independent of Sm concentration. At lower concentrations, however, D _Sm is dependent upon the Sm content of the garnet. The two regions may be interpreted in terms of charge-balanced substitution of Sm₃Al₅O₁₂ in the garnet at high Sm concentrations and defect equilibria involving cation vacancies at low concentrations. At very low REE concentrations (< 1 ppm Tm in grossular at 1,300 ° C) D_REE garnet/liquid again becomes constant with an apparent Henry's Law value greater than that at high concentrations. This may be interpreted in terms of a large abundance of cation vacancies relative to the number of REE ions.The importance of defects in the low concentration region has been confirmed by adding other REE (at 80 ppm level) to the system Mg₃Al₂Si₃O₁₂-H₂O at low Sm concentrations. These change D _Sm in the defect region, demonstrating their role in the production of vacancies.Experiments on a natural pyropic garnet indicate that defect equilibria are of importance to REE partitioning within the concentration ranges found in nature.     

The thermal significance of potassium feldspar K-Ar ages inferred from 40Ar39Ar age spectrum results

${}^{40}\text{Ar}{}^{39}\text{Ar}$ age spectrum analyses of three microcline separates from the Separation Point Batholith, northwest Nelson, New Zealand, which cooled slowly (~5°C-Ma^?1) through the temperature zone of partial radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar accumulation are characterized by a linear age increase over the first 65 percent of gas release with the lowest ages (~80 Ma) corresponding to the time that the samples cooled below about 100°C. The last 35 percent of ³⁹Ar released from the microclines yields plateau ages (103,99 and 93 Ma) which reflect the different bulk mineral ages, and correspond to cooling temperatures between about 130 to 160°C. Theoretical calculations confirm the likelihood of diffusion gradients in feldspars cooling at rates ≤5°C-Ma^?1. Diffusion parameters calculated from the ³⁹Ar release yield an activation energy, E = 28.8 ± 1.9 kcal-mol^?1, and a frequency factor/grain size parameter, $\text{D}{}_0\text{l}{}^2\text{= 5.6}{}_{\mathrm{?3.9}}{}^{\mathrm{+14}}\text{sec}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}$. This Arrhenius relationship corresponds to a closure temperature of 132 ± 13°C which is very similar to the independently estimated temperature. From the observed diffusion compensation correlation, this $\text{D}{}_0\text{l}{}^2$ implies an average diffusion half-width of about 3 μm, similar to the half-width of the perthite lamellae in the feldspars. The range in microcline K-Ar ages from the Separation Point Batholith is the result of relatively small temperature differences within the pluton during cooling. Comparison of the diffusion laws determined for microcline with those for anorthoclases and other homogeneous K-feldspars (E = 40 to 52 kcal-mol^?1) reveals that Ar diffusion is more highly temperature dependent in the disordered structural state than in the ordered structural state. Previously published U-shaped age spectra are probably the result of the superimposition of excess ⁴⁰Ar upon diffusion profiles of the kind described here.     

Influence of Transport over a Mountain Ridge on the Chemical Composition of Marine Aerosols during the ACE-2 Hillcloud Experiment

Aerosol chemical composition and trace gas measurements were made at twolocations on the northeastern peninsula of Tenerife during the ACE-2HILLCLOUD experiment, between 28 June and 23 July 1997. Measurementswere made of coarse (#gt;2.5 m aerodynamic diameter) and fine (#lt; 2.5m) aerosol Cl^–, NO₃ ^–,SO₄ ^2–, non-sea saltSO₄ ^2– (NSSS),CH₃SO₃ ^– (MSA) andNH₄ ⁺, and gas phase dimethylsulphide (DMS), HCl,HNO₃, SO₂, CH₃COOH, HCOOH andNH₃. Size distributions were measured using a cascadeimpactor. Results show that in marine air masses NSSS and MSA wereformed via DMS oxidation, with additional NSSS present in air massescontaining a continental component. Using a Eulerian box model approachfor aerosols transported between upwind and downwind sites, a mean NSSSproduction rate of 4.36 × 10^–4 gm^–3 s^–1 was calculated for daytimeclear sky periods (highest insolation), with values for cloudy periodsduring daytime and nighttime of 3.55 × 10^–4 and2.40 × 10^–4 g m^–3s^–1, respectively. The corresponding rates for MSA were6.23 × 10^–6, 8.49 × 10^–6and 6.95 × 10^–6 g m^–3s^–1, respectively. Molar concentration ratios forMSA/NSSS were 8.7% (1.8–18.2%) and 1.9%(1.3–3.5%) in clean and polluted air masses, respectively.Reactions occurring within clouds appeared to have a greater influenceon rates of MSA production, than of NSSS, while conversely daytime gasphase reactions were more important for NSSS. For MSA, nighttimein-cloud oxidation rates exceeded rates of daytime gas phase productionvia OH oxidation of DMS. NSSS, MSA and ammonium had trimodal sizedistributions, with modes at 0.3, 4.0 and >10.0 m (NSSS andNH₄ ⁺), and 0.3, 1.5 and 4.0 m (MSA). Nosignificant production of other aerosol species was observed, with theexception of ammonium, which was formed at variable rates dependent onneutralisation of the aerosol with ammonia released from spatiallynon-uniform surface sources. Seasalt components were mainly present incoarse particles, although sub-micrometre chloride was also measured.Losses by deposition exceeded calculated expectations for all species,and were highest for the seasalt fraction and nitrate.