广西沿海超高层建筑进行气象灾害风险评估必要性

通过列举国内外超高层建筑遭受气象灾害的案例,结合广西气象灾害风险区划资料,分析大风、台风、龙卷风、暴雨、雷电（雷击）、强降温等灾害与沿海超高层建筑的关系,以及可能造成的影响和潜在的风险,论述了超高层建筑进行气象灾害风险评估可实现最大安全与最小投资的统一.以期为广西沿海开展“超高层建筑气象灾害风险评估”工作提供理由和依据.     

1976年大气环流突变前后中国四季降水量异常和温度的年代际变化及其影响因子

利用NCEP/NCAR全球2.5°×2.5°月平均再分析资料和中国国家气候中心(NMC)提供的743站降水和温度资料分析了1976年大气环流突变前后中国四季降水量异常和温度的年代际对比特征,发现1976年后,春季中国华南降水偏多、温度偏低,长江流域西部降水偏少、温度偏低。夏季降水主要呈现华南少、长江流域多、华北少和东北多的"-、+、-、+"的分布形势,温度表现为华南增暖、长江淮河流域冷却和北方增暖的分布特征。秋季中国大部分地区降水量异常是减少的、温度是上升的。冬季华南地区降水量异常虽有增加但不显著,整个中国区域几乎呈增暖趋势。中国平均温度的年代际变化在春季和夏季的降温主要受最高温度变化影响、升温主要受最低温度影响;秋季的整体增暖受最低温度影响更大,而冬季的整体增暖受最高温度影响更大。造成以上变化的原因与1976年大气环流突变前后,四季哈德来环流上升支和下沉支的南北推移、西风急流的增强和位置的南北移动、大气层结的干湿状况以及水汽输送的来源密切相关。     

Influence of strong monsoon winds on the water quality around a marine cage-culture zone in a shallow and semi-enclosed bay in Taiwan

Influences of marine cage culture and monsoonal disturbances, northeasterly (NE) and southwesterly (SW) monsoons on the proximal marine environment were investigated across a gradient of sites in a semi-enclosed bay, Magong Bay (Penghu Islands, Taiwan). Elevated levels of ammonia produced by the cages were the main pollutant and distinguished the cage-culture and intermediary zones (1000 m away from the cages) from the reference zone in the NE monsoon, indicating currents produced by the strong monsoon may have extended the spread of nutrient-enriched waters without necessarily flushing such effluents outside Magong Bay. Moreover, the levels of chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity were distinguishable between two seasons, suggesting that resuspension caused by the NE monsoon winds may also influence the water quality across this bay. It indicated that the impacts of marine cage culture vary as a function of distance, and also in response to seasonal movements of water driven by local climatic occurrences.     

珠江三角洲降水数值预报的初步试验

以广州区域气象中心的实时资料库和大气所的细网格降水数值预报模式为基础,在VAX6220机上建立了珠江三角洲中尺度准业务降水数值预报系统,并从1990年5月20日至6月10日进行了连续22天的试验,对结果的分析表明,系统能稳定及时地提供12小时和24小时的预报产品,对短期降水预报具有一定参考价值。      

热带气旋外围环流中次天气尺度系统及其与天气尺度系统相互作用的诊断分析

本文应用带通滤波的方法,分离出热带气旋外围环流中的天气尺度和次天气尺度系统。发现热带气旋外围强降水与低层次天气尺度系统的辐合关系相当密切。文中还计算了两种尺度系统间的动能和涡度转换。得出:在650hPa以上基本上是天气尺度系统向次天气尺度系统提供动能,在650hPa以下基本上是次天气尺度系统向天气尺度系统提供动能,整层积分的结果是天气尺度系统向次天气尺度系统提供动能。在900hPa和400hPa之间的涡度转换为次天气尺度系统向天气尺度系统转换,即涡度转换的结果是使得次天气尺度系统气旋性减弱,天气尺度系统气旋性增强。900hPa以下和400hPa以上则相反。整层积分的结果是次天气尺度系统向天气尺度系统提供正涡度。      

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.     

Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Analysis and Forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar

This study explores the potential for directly assimilating polarimetric radar data (including reflectivity Z and differential reflectivity ZDR) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve analysis and forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar (2018). Ewiniar weakened but brought about heavy rainfall over Guangdong, China after its final landfall. Two experiments are performed, one assimilating only Z and the other assimilating both Z and ZDR. Assimilation of ZDR together with Z effectively modifies hydrometeor fields, and improves the intensity, shape and position of rainbands. Forecast of 24-hour extraordinary rainfall ≥250 mm is significantly improved. Improvement can also be seen in the wind fields because of cross-variable covariance. The current study shows the possibility of applying polarimetric radar data to improve forecasting of tropical cyclones, which deserves more researches in the future.     

珠江三角洲城市群对雷暴的影响

利用2000—2007年广东省闪电定位仪所获得的地闪资料和广东省86个气象站所统计的雷暴日资料,对广东省(特别是珠江三角洲城市群区域)的雷暴日闪电频次变化进行了分析。结果表明:虽然珠三角城市群雷暴日与非城市群雷暴日相差不大,8年中变化也不大,但总闪远多于非城市群,总闪在8年中也有显著增长。珠三角城市群的单个雷暴的闪电频次要远多于非城市群区域,总闪增长也主要是单个雷暴的闪电频次的增长。而且,珠三角城市群对前汛期雷暴影响大,对后汛期影响相对较小。     

广州地区雷暴过程云-地闪特征及其环境条件

应用雷电定位系统和高空观测资料并结合雷达回波资料, 对广州地区雷暴过程云-地闪特征进行分析, 并就有、无云-地闪出现的两组不同对流天气过程的环境条件进行了比较研究。结果表明:广州地区的雷暴过程以负的云-地闪为主, 负云-地闪所占比例在90%以上。云-地闪发生频率与雷暴系统强度演变有直接联系, 对于同一系统来说, 随着系统回波强度的增强, 云-地闪发生的频率也增高。但不同系统中, 云-地闪发生频率有很大不同, 回波强(弱)的对流系统并不意味着云-地闪发生的频率就高(低)。有云-地闪记录的对流天气过程具有更大的垂直切变、更高的相对风暴螺旋度以及更多的对流抑制能量, 云-地闪现象更易于出现在更加有组织和更强的对流系统中。研究还发现广州及周边城市区域对雷暴系统回波强度及云-地闪现象可能有影响, 两个典型个例分析表明, 雷暴系统移经城市区域时回波强度减弱, 云-地闪发生频率减小, 雷暴移过城市区域后, 强度可重新加强, 云-地闪发生频率增大。     

THE TEST OF APPLYING RADAR TREC WIND IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL ASSIMILATION

1 INTRODUCTIONThat the radar data are reasonably ingested into theassimilation analysis system to improve the analysisquality and prediction precision is one of the problemsmeteorologists currently try to resolve. Many scholarshave already obtained some r…