Land use and climate change on the Yamal Peninsula of north-west Siberia: some ecological and socio-economic implications

Compared to climate, land use change is expected to comprise a more important component of global change in the coming decades. However, climate is anticipated to supass land use as a factor later in the next century, particularly in the Arctic. Discussed here are the implications of land use and climate change on the Yamal peninsula of north-west Siberia, homeland of the Yamal Nenets. Since the discovery of super-giant natural gas fields in the 1960s, extensive exploration has resulted in direct withdrawal of large areas for infrastructure development and associated disturbance regimes have led to cumulative impacts on thousands of additional hectares of land. The land withdrawals have pushed a relatively consistent or increasing number of reindeer onto progressively smaller parcels of pasture. This has led to excessive grazing and trampling of lichens, bryophytes and shrubs and, in many areas, erosion of sandy soils via deflation. The low Arctic tundra lies entirely within the continuous permafrost zone and ice-rich substrates are widespread. One implication of this is that both anthropogenic and zoogenic distubance regimes may easily initiate thermokarst and aeolian rosion, leading to significant further losses of pastures. Even without industrial distubance, a slight change of the climate would result in massive thermokarst erosion. This would have negative consequences equal to or greater than the mechanical distubances described above. The synergistic effects of land use coupled with climate, change therefore have profound implication for the ecosystems of Yamal, as well as the future of the Nenets culture, society and economy.     

Validation of an annual cycle simulation with a T42-L20 GCM

An annual cycle of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is presented. The winter and summer zonal averages of the atmospheric fields are compared with an observed climatology. The main features of the observed seasonal means are well reproduced by the model. One of the main discrepancies is that the simulated atmosphere is too cold, particularly in its upper part. Some other discrepancies might be explained by the interannual variability. The AGCM surface fluxes are directly compared to climatological estimates. On the other hand, the calculation of meridional heat transport by the ocean, inferred from the simulated energy budget, can be compared to transport induced from climatologies. The main result of this double comparison is that AGCM fluxes generally are within the range of climatological estimates. The main deficiency of the model is poor partitioning between solar and non-solar heat fluxes in the tropical belt. The meridional heat transport also reveals a significant energy-loss by the Northern Hemisphere ocean north of 45° N. The possible implications of model surface flux deficiencies on coupling with an oceanic model are discussed.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Impact of Gas Adsorption Induced Coal Matrix Damage on the Evolution of Coal Permeability

It has been widely reported that coal permeability can change from reduction to enhancement due to gas adsorption even under the constant effective stress condition, which is apparently inconsistent with the classic theoretical solutions. This study addresses this inconsistency through explicit simulations of the dynamic interactions between coal matrix swelling/shrinking induced damage and fracture aperture alteration, and translations of these interactions to permeability evolution under the constant effective stress condition. We develop a coupled coal–gas interaction model that incorporates the material heterogeneity and damage evolution of coal, which allows us to couple the progressive development of damage zone with gas adsorption processes within the coal matrix. For the case of constant effective stress, coal permeability changes from reduction to enhancement while the damage zone within the coal matrix develops from the fracture wall to further inside the matrix. As the peak Langmuir strain is approached, the decrease of permeability halts and permeability increases with pressure. The transition of permeability reduction to permeability enhancement during gas adsorption, which may be closely related to the damage zone development in coal matrix, is controlled by coal heterogeneity, external boundary condition, and adsorption-induced swelling.     

Thermal evolution of an extensional detachment as constrained by organic metamorphic data and thermal modeling: Graz Paleozoic Nappe Complex (Eastern Alps)

Following Early Cretaceous nappe stacking, the Eastern Alps were affected by late-orogenic extension during the Late Cretaceous. In the eastern segment of this range, a Late Cretaceous detachment separates a very low- to low-grade metamorphic cover (Graz Paleozoic Nappe Complex, GPNC) above a low- to high-grade metamorphic basement. Synchronously, the Kainach Gosau Basin (KGB) collapsed and subsided on top of the section.Metamorphism of organic material within this section has been investigated using vitrinite reflectance data and Raman spectra of extracted carbonaceous material. In the southern part of the GPNC, vitrinite reflectance indicates a decrease in organic maturity towards the stratigraphic youngest unit. The remaining part of the GPNC is characterized by an aureole of elevated vitrinite reflectance values and Raman R2 ratios that parallels the margins of the GPNC. Vitrinite reflectance in the KGB shows a steep coalification gradient and increases significantly towards the western basin margin. The observed stratigraphic trend in the southern GPNC is a result of deep Paleozoic to Early Cretaceous burial. This maturity pattern was overprinted along the margins by advective heat and convective fluids during Late Cretaceous to Paleogene exhumation of basement rocks.During shearing, the fault zone was heated up to ca. 500 °C. This overprint is explained by a two-dimensional thermal model with a ramp-flat fault geometry and a slip rate of 1 to 1.5 cm/year during 5 Ma fault movement. The collapse basin above the detachment subsided in a thermal regime which was characterized by relaxing isotherms.     

Invariant manifolds, phase correlations of chaotic orbits and the spiral structure of galaxies

In the presence of a strong   m = 2  component in a rotating galaxy, the phase-space structure near corotation is shaped to a large extent by the invariant manifolds of the short-period family of unstable periodic orbits terminating at L ₁ or L ₂. The main effect of these manifolds is to create robust phase correlations among a number of chaotic orbits large enough to support a spiral density wave outside corotation. The phenomenon is described theoretically by soliton-like solutions of a Sine–Gordon equation. Numerical examples are given in an N -body simulation of a barred spiral galaxy. In these examples, we demonstrate how the projection of unstable manifolds in configuration space reproduces essentially the entire observed bar–spiral pattern.     

Simulating the moderating effect of a lake on downwind temperatures

A steady-state, two-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate air temperatures and humidity downwind of a lake at night. Thermal effects of the lake were modelled for the case of moderate and low surface winds under the cold-air advective conditions that occur following the passage of a cold front. Surface temperatures were found to be in good agreement with observations. A comparison of model results with thermal imagery indicated the model successfully predicts the downwind distance for which thermal effects due to the lake are significant.     

The measurement and extraction of the <nu>6 atmospheric emission band of CFC-12 from interfering emission features

Ground-based thermal emission measurements of the zenith sky have been made at Peterborough, Ontario since January 1993. In this paper, the measurement of the ₆ band of atmospheric CFC-12, an important greenhouse gas, is presented for a cold, clear day in January 1994. A spectrum of the non-CFC-12 emission features has been simulated using the FASCD3P radiation code and measured radiosonde profiles of temperature, pressure and humidity. This has enabled a satisfactory subtraction of the interfering emission features from the CFC-12 emission spectrum. A comparison of the observed and simulated ₆-bands of CFC-12 shows good agreement at all frequencies of emission. From these spectra the total downward greenhouse radiative flux from the CFC-12 ₆ emission based for a very cold day has been estimated to be 0.27 W m⁻²±10%.