Intermittent chaos in nonlinear wave–wave interactions in space plasmas

There is increasing observational evidence of nonlinear wave–wave interactions in space and astrophysical plasmas. We first review a number of theoretical models of nonlinear wave–wave interactions which our group has developed in the past years. We next describe a nonlinear three-mode truncated model of Alfvén waves, involving resonant interactions of one linearly unstable mode and two linearly damped modes. We construct a bifurcation diagram for this three-wave model and investigate the phenomenon of intermittent chaos. The theoretical results presented in this paper can improve our understanding of intermittent time series frequently observed in space and astrophysical plasmas.     

Spatial and seasonal variability of sediment accumulation potential through controlled flooding of the beels located in the polders of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta of Southwest Bangladesh

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta plain within Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable to relative sea level rise (RSLR) in the world especially under current anthropogenically modified (i.e., embanked) conditions. Tidal river management (TRM) as practiced in coastal regions of Bangladesh may provide an opportunity to combat RSLR by raising the land level through controlled sedimentation inside beels (depression within embanked polders) with re-opening of polders. To date, TRM has been applied to tide-dominated coastal regions, but the potential applicability of TRM for the beels within the polders of river-dominated and mixed flow (MF) regimes remains to be assessed. We apply a calibrated 2D numerical hydromorphodynamic model to quantify sediment deposition in a beel flooded through breaching of the polder dike under conditions of river-dominated, tide-dominated and MF regimes for different seasons and applying different regulation schemes for the flow into the beel. Simulation results show considerable seasonality in sediment deposition with largest deposition during the monsoon season. The potential of controlled flooding is highest in the tide-dominated region, where sediment accumulation can be up to 28 times higher than in the river-dominated region. Regulating flow into a beel increases trapping efficiency, but results in slightly lower total deposition than without regulation. We conclude that re-establishing flooding of the beel within the polder without regulating the flow into the beel through breaching of the polder dike is a promising strategy for the mixed and tide-dominated flow regions in the delta as the sediment accumulation can raise the land surface at a higher rate than RSLR and effective SLR (ESLR). In the more upstream river-dominated section of the delta, accumulation rates would be much lower, but the pressure of sea level rise on these areas is lower as well. Owing to the abundant availability of sediment, application of controlled flooding like TRM therefore provides an opportunity to counteract the impact of RSLR and ESLR by means of land raising, particularly along the tidal river reaches in the GBM delta.     

Physical disturbance creates bacterial dominance of benthic biological communities in tropical deltaic environments of the Gulf of Papua

Unlike many reactive continental shelf mud deposits in temperate regions, bacteria and microfauna rather than macrofauna typically dominate benthic biomass and activities over large areas of the Gulf of Papua (GoP) deltaic complex, Papua New Guinea. During mid NW monsoon periods (Jan–Feb), macrofaunal densities at Gulf stations were relatively low (), large macroinfauna were absent (upper 25 cm), and small (), surface deposit-feeding polychaetes and tubiculous amphipods were dominant, reflecting a frequently destabilized seabed and high sedimentation/erosion rates. Although frequent physical disturbance generally inhibits development of macrobenthic communities, some regions of the Gulf deposits are periodically colonized and extensively bioturbated during quiescent periods, as shown by preserved biogenic sedimentary structures. Bacterial inventories integrated over the top 20 cm were extremely variable within each sub region of the clinoform complex. A possible bimodal pattern with bathymetric depth and distance offshore may occur: lowest-inventories within the sandy, proximal Fly River delta, an open Gulf inner topset zone (10–20 m) having sites of relatively high inventories, an open Gulf mid-topset region with intermediate values and less extreme variation, and the outer topset—upper foreset zone (40–50 m) where highest values are attained (). Various measures of microbial activity, including measures proportional to the cellular rRNA content and the proportion of dividing cells, indicate extremely productive populations over the upper 1-m of the seabed throughout the Gulf of Papua region. Bacterial biomass (0–20 cm) including data of Alongi et al. (1991, 1992, 1995) varied from a low of in intertidal mud banks to a high of in the topset—foreset zone. Macrofaunal biomass did not exceed in any sampled region, ranging from 0.009±0 to with no obvious correlation with bathymetric depth (1–63 m). Meiofaunal biomass was generally an order of magnitude lower than macrofaunal biomass. Relatively elevated bacterial biomass and high turnover rates are consistent with high measured rates of benthic remineralization, presumably reflecting the rapid response time of bacteria to physical reworking, the associated entrainment of organic substrate, and flushing of metabolites. Solute exchange is also enhanced below the directly mixed surface region, possibly producing ‘far field’ stimulation of microbes in underlying deposits. Physical reworking and reoxidation of sediments between 10 and 50 m water depth maintain suboxic, nonsulfidic conditions in the upper 0.5–1 m despite active microbial communities and high benthic remineralization rates.     

Performance assessment of three convective parameterization schemes in WRF for downscaling summer rainfall over South Africa

Austral summer rainfall over the period 1991/1992 to 2010/2011 was dynamically downscaled by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model at 9 km resolution for South Africa. Lateral boundary conditions for WRF were provided from the European Centre for medium-range weather (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) interim data. The model biases for the rainfall were evaluated over the South Africa as a whole and its nine provinces separately by employing three different convective parameterization schemes, namely the (1) Kain–Fritsch (KF), (2) Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) and (3) Grell–Devenyi ensemble (GDE) schemes. All three schemes have generated positive rainfall biases over South Africa, with the KF scheme producing the largest biases and mean absolute errors. Only the BMJ scheme could reproduce the intensity of rainfall anomalies, and also exhibited the highest correlation with observed interannual summer rainfall variability. In the KF scheme, a significantly high amount of moisture was transported from the tropics into South Africa. The vertical thermodynamic profiles show that the KF scheme has caused low level moisture convergence, due to the highly unstable atmosphere, and hence contributed to the widespread positive biases of rainfall. The negative bias in moisture, along with a stable atmosphere and negative biases of vertical velocity simulated by the GDE scheme resulted in negative rainfall biases, especially over the Limpopo Province. In terms of rain rate, the KF scheme generated the lowest number of low rain rates and the maximum number of moderate to high rain rates associated with more convective unstable environment. KF and GDE schemes overestimated the convective rain and underestimated the stratiform rain. However, the simulated convective and stratiform rain with BMJ scheme is in more agreement with the observations. This study also documents the performance of regional model in downscaling the large scale climate mode such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and subtropical dipole modes. The correlations between the simulated area averaged rainfalls over South Africa and Nino3.4 index were ?0.66, ?0.69 and ?0.49 with KF, BMJ and GDE scheme respectively as compared to the observed correlation of ?0.57. The model could reproduce the observed ENSO-South Africa rainfall relationship and could successfully simulate three wet (dry) years that are associated with La Niña (El Niño) and the BMJ scheme is closest to the observed variability. Also, the model showed good skill in simulating the excess rainfall over South Africa that is associated with positive subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole for the DJF season 2005/2006.     

Stable isotope (O and C) and pollen trends in eastern Lake Erie,evidence for a locally-induced climatic reversal of Younger Dryas age in the Great Lakes basin

A cool period from about 11000 to 10 500 BP (11 to 10.5 ka) is recognized in pollen records from the southern Great Lakes area by the return of Picea and Abies dominance and by the persistence of herbs. The area of cooling appears centred on the Upper Great Lakes. A high-resolution record (ca. 9 mm/y) from a borehole in eastern Lake Erie reveals, in the same time interval, this pollen anomaly, isotope evidence of meltwater presence (a — 3 per mil shift in ¹⁸O and a +1.1 per mil shift in ¹³C), increased sand, and reduced detrital calcite content, all suggesting concurrent cooling of Lake Erie. The onset of cooling is mainly attributed to the effect of enhanced meltwater inflow on the relatively large upstream Main Lake Algonquin during the first eastward discharge of glacial Lake Agassiz. Termination of the cooling coincides with drainage of Lake Algonquin, and is attributed to loss of its cooling effectiveness associated with a substantial reduction in its surface area. It is hypothesized that the cold extra inflow effectively prolonged the seasonal presence of lake ice and the period of spring overturn in Lake Algonquin. The deep mixing would have greatly increased the thermal conductive capacity of this extensive lake, causing suppression of summer surface lakewater temperatures and reduction of onshore growing-degree days. Alternatively, a rapid flow of meltwater, buoyed on sediment-charged (denser) lakewater, may have kept the lake surface cold in summer. Other factors such as wind-shifted pollen deposition and possible effects from the Younger Dryas North Atlantic cooling could have contributed to the Great Lakes climatic reversal, but further studies are needed to resolve their relative significance.Contribution to Climo Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate ProgramGeological Survey of Canada Contribution 58 890     

Extreme midlatitude cyclones and their implications for precipitation and wind speed extremes in simulations of the Maunder Minimum versus present day conditions

Extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, wind speed events, their inter-relationships, and the connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns are investigated in simulations of a prolonged cold period, known as the Maunder Minimum from 1640 to 1715 and compared with today. An ensemble of six simulations for the Maunder Minimum as well as a control simulation for perpetual 1990 conditions are carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, i.e., the Climate Community System Model (CCSM). The comparison of the simulations shows that in a climate state colder than today the occurrence of cyclones, the extreme events of precipitation and wind speed shift southward in all seasons in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. The extremes of cyclone intensity increases significantly in winter in almost all regions, which is related to a stronger meridional temperature gradient and an increase in lower tropospheric baroclinicity. Extremes of cyclone intensity in subregions of the North Atlantic are related to extremes in precipitation and in wind speed during winter. Moreover, extremes of cyclone intensity are also connected to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns for the different subregions, but these relationships vanish during summer. Analyzing the mean 1,000 hPa geopotential height change of the Maunder Minimum simulations compared with the control simulation, we find a similar pattern as the correlation pattern with the cyclone intensity index of the southern Europe cyclones. This illustrates that changes in the atmospheric high-frequency, i.e., the simulated southward shift of cyclones in the North Atlantic and the related increase of extreme precipitation and wind speed in particular in the Mediterranean in winter, are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation changes.