Land use and climate change on the Yamal Peninsula of north-west Siberia: some ecological and socio-economic implications

Compared to climate, land use change is expected to comprise a more important component of global change in the coming decades. However, climate is anticipated to supass land use as a factor later in the next century, particularly in the Arctic. Discussed here are the implications of land use and climate change on the Yamal peninsula of north-west Siberia, homeland of the Yamal Nenets. Since the discovery of super-giant natural gas fields in the 1960s, extensive exploration has resulted in direct withdrawal of large areas for infrastructure development and associated disturbance regimes have led to cumulative impacts on thousands of additional hectares of land. The land withdrawals have pushed a relatively consistent or increasing number of reindeer onto progressively smaller parcels of pasture. This has led to excessive grazing and trampling of lichens, bryophytes and shrubs and, in many areas, erosion of sandy soils via deflation. The low Arctic tundra lies entirely within the continuous permafrost zone and ice-rich substrates are widespread. One implication of this is that both anthropogenic and zoogenic distubance regimes may easily initiate thermokarst and aeolian rosion, leading to significant further losses of pastures. Even without industrial distubance, a slight change of the climate would result in massive thermokarst erosion. This would have negative consequences equal to or greater than the mechanical distubances described above. The synergistic effects of land use coupled with climate, change therefore have profound implication for the ecosystems of Yamal, as well as the future of the Nenets culture, society and economy.     

RHESSI Microflares: II. Implications for Loop Structure and Evolution

We present simple analytic models which predict the peak X-ray emission measure and temperature attained in flares in which the chromospheric evaporation process takes place either in a single ‘monolithic’ loop or in a loop consisting of several filaments that are created successively as the energy release process proceeds in time. As possible mechanisms driving chromospheric evaporation we consider both classical heat conduction from the loop top and non-thermal electron beams. The model predictions are tested for a set of 18 well studied RHESSI microflares. The results suggest beam driven evaporation in filamented loops as being capable of accounting for the observed emission measures and temperatures though there are issues with the very high beam densities needed. On the other hand, estimates of the emission measures achieved by conductive evaporation which are derived by using the Rosner – Tucker – Vaiana (RTV) scaling law are much larger than the observed ones. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Validation of an annual cycle simulation with a T42-L20 GCM

An annual cycle of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is presented. The winter and summer zonal averages of the atmospheric fields are compared with an observed climatology. The main features of the observed seasonal means are well reproduced by the model. One of the main discrepancies is that the simulated atmosphere is too cold, particularly in its upper part. Some other discrepancies might be explained by the interannual variability. The AGCM surface fluxes are directly compared to climatological estimates. On the other hand, the calculation of meridional heat transport by the ocean, inferred from the simulated energy budget, can be compared to transport induced from climatologies. The main result of this double comparison is that AGCM fluxes generally are within the range of climatological estimates. The main deficiency of the model is poor partitioning between solar and non-solar heat fluxes in the tropical belt. The meridional heat transport also reveals a significant energy-loss by the Northern Hemisphere ocean north of 45° N. The possible implications of model surface flux deficiencies on coupling with an oceanic model are discussed.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Impact of Gas Adsorption Induced Coal Matrix Damage on the Evolution of Coal Permeability

It has been widely reported that coal permeability can change from reduction to enhancement due to gas adsorption even under the constant effective stress condition, which is apparently inconsistent with the classic theoretical solutions. This study addresses this inconsistency through explicit simulations of the dynamic interactions between coal matrix swelling/shrinking induced damage and fracture aperture alteration, and translations of these interactions to permeability evolution under the constant effective stress condition. We develop a coupled coal–gas interaction model that incorporates the material heterogeneity and damage evolution of coal, which allows us to couple the progressive development of damage zone with gas adsorption processes within the coal matrix. For the case of constant effective stress, coal permeability changes from reduction to enhancement while the damage zone within the coal matrix develops from the fracture wall to further inside the matrix. As the peak Langmuir strain is approached, the decrease of permeability halts and permeability increases with pressure. The transition of permeability reduction to permeability enhancement during gas adsorption, which may be closely related to the damage zone development in coal matrix, is controlled by coal heterogeneity, external boundary condition, and adsorption-induced swelling.     

The hard solar X-ray burst of 18 September 1963

A hard solar X-ray burst was observed by J-P. Legrand on 18 September 1963, 13:56 UT, at balloon altitude. It lasted a few minutes; a steep increase was followed by an exponential decay. During its declining phase a weak radio burst was observed on 3 and 10 cm, not on longer wavelengths.Maximum radio intensity occurred two minutes after that of the X-ray burst. The X-ray and radio bursts ended almost simultaneously. Optically a small shortlived (some minutes) flare point occurred simultaneously with the X-ray burst in a magnetically interesting part of the active region of September 1963. The X-burst photons seem to have had an energy of about 0.5 MeV. The burst was therefore of a fairly rare type, since very few other bursts with similar photon energies have been detected up to now.It is suggested that a mass of gas, magnetically confined to a volume of about 5·10²⁵ cm³ in the low corona, containing about 3·10³⁵ electrons was accelerated to energies of about 0.5 MeV. The gas gradually expanded, partly also to higher levels. The gyro-synchrotron radiation, emitted by the plasma became observable after about two minutes. At the lower radio frequencies the radiation was absorbed by overlying undisturbed coronal matter. Quantitative computations justify this model. A detailed summary of the events, and some numerical data are given in the concluding Section 8 and in Table V.     

典型农区农用地承包经营权流转价格及对策研究(英文)

河南既是农业大省又是中国重要的粮食主产区,农用地流转顺畅及适度规模经营对区域经济发展和国家粮食安全产生重要影响。借助于土地使用权评估的基本方法,并使用土地承包经营权的权属特性进行修正,构建了土地承包经营权流转价格模型,并对典型区域沁阳市西万村进行了实证分析。结果表明,土地承包经营权流转价格应该包括经济价格、社会价格和修正价格。价格模型的应用,应甄别理论价格和实际流转费用的区分,农用地流转后经营项目没有转变,流转价格为经济价格和社会保障价格是总和。农用地流转后经营项目发生转变,比如耕地改种经济作物,流转价格则是经济价格、社会价格与修正价格三者的总和。收益分配格局存在复杂性,流转收益应在流出方、流入方、管理者和所有者之间合理、公平分配。政府应建立合理有序的农用地承包经营权流转市场,并以农用地流转市场为载体,构建农用地流转价格体系。     

Molecular abundances and nucleation in protostellar envelopes

This work is basically concerned with grain nucleation occurring in protostellar envelopes. On the basis of the dissociation equilibrium theory, molecular and atomic abundances are obtained for massive protostar envelopes. Application of time-independent homogeneous nucleation theory results in the possibility of atomic Fe condensation.