Numerical modelling of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia during the Holocene

The occurrence of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia and its dependence on past and presently ongoing climatic variations was investigated with one- (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) numerical models by solving the transient heat conduction equation with latent heat effects included. The study area is characterized by discontinuous permafrost occurrences such as palsa mires and local mountain permafrost. The ground temperature changes during the Holocene were constructed using climatic proxy data. This variation was used as a forcing function at the ground surface in the calculations. Several versions of the present ground temperature were applied, resulting in different subsurface freezing–thawing conditions in the past depending on the assumed porosity and geothermal conditions.Our results suggest that in high altitude areas with a cold climate (present mean annual ground temperature between 0°C and −3°C), there may have been considerable variations in permafrost thickness (ranging from 0 to 150 m), as well as periods of no permafrost at all. The higher is the porosity of bedrock filled with ice, the stronger is the retarding effect of permafrost against climatic variations.Two-dimensional models including topographic effects with altitude-dependent ground temperatures and slope orientation and inclination dependent solar radiation were applied to a case of mountain permafrost in Ylläs, western Finnish Lapland, where bedrock permafrost is known to occur in boreholes to a depth of about 60 m. Modelling suggests complicated changes in permafrost thickness with time as well as contrasting situations on southern and northern slopes of the mountain.Extrapolating the climatic warming of the last 200 years to the end of the next century when the anticipated increase in the annual average air temperature is expected to be about 2 K indicates that the permafrost occurrences in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia would be thawing rapidly in low-porosity formations. However, already a porosity of 5% filled with ice would retard the thawing considerably.     

Radar observations of Itokawa in 2004 and improved shape estimation

Abstract— We present June 2004 radar images of asteroid 25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36) that improve upon the longitude‐latitude coverage of images obtained in 2001 by Ostro et al. (2004) and use the 2001–2004 data to refine that paper's constraints on Itokawa's shape. The 2004 images, the first of the asteroid's southern side, look distinctly different from the 2001 images, revealing leading edges that are much more curved and rugged than the nearly convex leading edges seen at northern latitudes in 2001. Itokawa is shaped like a slightly asymmetrical, bent, lumpy ellipsoid with dimensions along the principal axes within 10% of 594 times 320 times 288 m. To illustrate the uncertainty space associated with shape reconstruction from images with suboptimal orientational coverage, we present two alternative three‐dimensional models of the object.     

A note on Le Verrier's expansion of the disturbing function

An examination of Le Verrier's seventh-order expansion of the disturbing function has revealed only one non-trivial error in Le Verrier's work. The error occurs in a sixth order term in the eccentricities.     

Observations on the ecological importance of salt marshes in the Cumberland Basin,a macrotidal estuary in the Bay of Fundy

The Cumberland Basin, a 118 km² estuary at the head of the Bay of Fundy which has an average tidal range of about 11m, contains large tracts of salt marsh (15% of the area below highest high water). Low marsh (below about 0·9 m above mean high water) is composed almost exclusively of Spartina alterniflora while the vegetation on high marsh is more diverse but dominated by Spartina patens. Because of its higher elevation, high marsh is flooded infrequently for short periods by only extreme high tides. Low marsh is inundated much more frequently by water as much as 4m deep for periods as long as 4 h per tide. Temporal variability in the occurrence of extreme tides influences the flooding frequency of high marsh for any given month and year. Using a modification of Smalley's method, the mean annual net aerial primary production (NAPP) of low and high marsh is estimated to be 272 and 172 g C m^?2, respectively. Vegetation turnover times average 1·0 and 2·0 y for low and high marsh, respectively. Because of abundant tidal energy, much of the low marsh production appears to be exported and distributed widely about the estuary. Since high levels of turbidity suppress phytoplankton production, salt marshes produce approximately half of the carbon fixed photosynthetically in the Cumberland Basin. It is concluded that salt marshes play a major ecological role in the Cumberland Basin.     

The effects of gravitational radiation on circular binary systems with spins

In any theory of gravitation that predicts the existence of gravitational waves, it is shown that, in the absence of mass exchange and mass loss and subjected to a condition, a circular binary system with spherically-symmetrical components cannot evolve in such a way that the spin angular velocity is always a linear function of the orbital velocity. Probably this relation between the angular velocities cannot be realized in any time interval. In particular, the system cannot remain in a synchronized state. Of eight special cases of evolution of this binary system, three cases, where the separation increases, are shown to be kinematically impossible while a restriction on the variation of a parameter governing the evaluation of the system can be made in another. In one of the kinematically allowed special cases the separation increases.     

A 2000-YEAR CONTEXT FOR MODERN CLIMATE CHANGE

ABSTRACT. Although considerable attention has been paid to the record of temperature change over the last few centuries, the range and rate of change of atmospheric circulation and hydrology remain elusive. Here, eight latitudinally well-distributed (pole-equator-pole), highly resolved (annual to decadal) climate proxy records are presented that demonstrate major changes in these variables over the last 2000 years. A comparison between atmospheric ¹⁴C and these changes in climate demonstrates a first-order relationship between a variable Sun and climate. The relationship is seen on a global scale.     

Yields of Nucleosynthesis from massive and intermediate mass stars and constraints on their final evolution

Nucleosynthetic yields and production rates of helium and heavy elements are derived using new initial mass functions which take into account the recent revisions in O star counts and the stellar models of Maeder (1981a, b) which incorporate the effects of massloss on evolution. The current production rates are significantly higher than the earlier results due to Chiosi & Caimmi (1979) and Chiosi (1979), and a near-uniform birthrate operating over the history of the galactic disc explains the currently observed abundances. However, the yields are incompatibly high, and to obtain agreement it is necessary to assume that stars above a certain mass do not explode but proceed to total collapse. Further confirmation of this idea comes from the consideration of the specific yields and production rates of oxygen, carbon and iron and the constraints imposed by the observational enrichment history in the disc as discussed by Twarog & Wheeler (1982). Substantial amounts of⁴He and¹⁴C, amongst the primary synthesis species, are contributed by the intermediate mass stars in their wind phases. If substantial numbers of them exploded as Type I SN, their contribution to the yields of¹²C and⁵⁶Fe would be far in excess of the requirements of galactic nucleosynthesis. Either efficient massloss precludes such catastrophic ends for these stars, or the current stellar models are sufficiently in error to leave room for substantial revisions in the specific yields. The proposed upward revision of the¹²C (α,γ)¹⁶O rate may produce the necessary changes in stellar yields to provide a solution to this problem. Stars that produce most of the metals in the Galaxy are the same ones that contribute most to the observed supernova rate.     

Spectrophotometric Variability of Mira

Data from the Pulkovo spectrophotometric data base on the absolute quasimonochromatic fluxes from oCet in the 320–1080 nm range are used to determine the physical parameters of this star in different phases of its light curve. The continuum emission layer is found to expand between the phases of the cycle corresponding to the rising and falling branches of the light curve. The average expansion velocity is 32 km/s. By the time the star’s brightness has fallen by roughly three magnitudes, its radius has increased by almost a factor of three. Over this same time the temperature of the layer has fallen from 3000 K to 2200 K. For this expansion velocity, the calculated mass rate loss is ⊙ M /year.__________Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 48, No. 2, pp. 175–189 (May 2005).