Monthly prediction of rainfall over India and its homogeneous zones during monsoon season: a supervised principal component regression approach on general circulation model products

A supervised principal component regression (SPCR) technique has been employed on general circulation model (GCM) products for developing a monthly scale deterministic forecast of summer monsoon rainfall (June–July–August–September) for different homogeneous zones and India as a whole. The time series of the monthly observed rainfall as the predictand variable has been used from India Meteorological Department gridded (1°?×?1°) rainfall data. Lead 0 (forecast initialized in the same month) monthly products from GCMs are used as predictors. The sources of these GCMs are International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, National Center for Environmental Prediction, and Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology. The performance of SPCR technique is judged against simple ensemble mean of GCMs (EM) and it is found that over almost all the zones the SPCR model gives better skill than EM in June, August, and September months of monsoon. The SPCR technique is able to capture the year to year observed rainfall variability in terms of sign as well as the magnitude. The independent forecasts of 2007 and 2008 are also analyzed for different monsoon months (Jun–Sep) in homogeneous zones and country. Here, 1982–2006 have been considered as development year or training period. Results of the study suggest that the SPCR model is able to catch the observational rainfall over India as a whole in June, August, and September in 2007 and June, July, and August in 2008.     

Growth and primary productivity of marine macrophytes exposed to domestic sewage effluents

This study provides the first response data for ten Southern California macrophytes exposed to untreated, primary, secondary and secondary chlorinated sewage effluent during long-term culture studies in the laboratory as well as short-term metabolic studies in the field and in the laboratory. Bossiella orbigniana, Lithothrix aspergillum and Corallina officinalis var, chilensis had relatively broad homeostatic capabilities and enhanced net production rates when exposed to primary treated sewage. In the long-term cultures, Amphiroa zonata, B. orbigniana and C. officinalis var. chilensis all demonstrated enhanced growth in the presence of primary sewage. Chlorination of effluent had only a short-term negative effect; i.e. species' responses to secondary and secondary chlorinated sewage were virtually identical beyond the second week in culture. Three populations of C. officinalis var. chilensis with differing pollution histories showed a tolerance to sewage corresponding to the extent of previous exposure, indicating that this species may be able to acclimate physiologically to sewage stress. The more sewage-tolerant macrophytes displayed lower photosynthetic quotient values during exposure to effluent than those possessing little tolerance to sewage.     

Rockfall Hazard Analysis From Discrete Fracture Network Modelling with Finite Persistence Discontinuities

Developing an accurate representation of the rock mass fabric is a key element in rock fall hazard analysis. The orientation, persistence and density of fractures control the volume and shape of unstable blocks or compartments. In this study, the discrete fracture modelling technique and digital photogrammetry were used to accurately depict the fabric. A volume distribution of unstable blocks was derived combining polyhedral modelling and kinematic analyses. For each block size, probabilities of failure and probabilities of propagation were calculated. A complete energy distribution was obtained by considering, for each block size, its occurrence in the rock mass, its probability of falling, its probability to reach a given location, and the resulting distribution of energies at each location. This distribution was then used with an energy–frequency diagram to assess the hazard.     

Early latitude observations at the Pulkovo observatory

Pulkovo astrometric observations began in the 1840s using the Repsold transit instrument in the prime vertical and Ertel vertical circle. The first observers on these instruments were W.I. Struve, 1840–1856, and Kh.I. Peters, 1842–1849. In the present work, we collected and analyzed different series of latitude variations from observations made by M.O. Nuren, B. Wanach, A.A. Ivanov, I.N. Bonsdorf, and A.Ya. Orlov. In addition, results are given of investigations of a specific behavior of the Chandler polar motion in this interval, obtained by C. Chandler, Ivanov, Kh. Kimura, Orlov, and N. Sekiguchi. The aim of this paper is to search for and analyze the earliest series of Pulkovo latitudes, in order to evaluate the possibility of their use to study the motion of the pole at the maximum available range of observations. Different methods were used to isolate and analyze the sum of Chandler and annual latitude variations. The annex provides a series of Pulkovo latitude variations for 1840–1848, which may be used to extend latitude variation back to 1840.     

Resolving mechanisms of toxicity while pursuing ecotoxicological relevance?

In this age of modern biology, aquatic toxicological research has pursued mechanisms of action of toxicants. This has provided potential tools for ecotoxicologic investigations. However, problems of biocomplexity and issues at higher levels of biological organization remain a challenge. In the 1980s and 1990s and continuing to a lesser extent today, organisms residing in highly contaminated field sites or exposed in the laboratory to calibrated concentrations of individual compounds were carefully analyzed for their responses to priority pollutants. Correlation of biochemical and structural analyses in cultured cells and tissues, as well as the in vivo exposures led to the production and application of biomarkers of exposure and effect and to our awareness of genotoxicity and its chronic manifestations, such as neoplasms, in wild fishes. To gain acceptance of these findings in the greater environmental toxicology community, “validation of the model” versus other, better-established often rodent models, was necessary and became a major focus. Resultant biomarkers were applied to heavily contaminated and reference field sites as part of effects assessment and with investigations following large-scale disasters such as oil spills or industrial accidents.

Over the past 15 years, in the laboratory, small aquarium fish models such as medaka (Oryzias latipes), zebrafish (Danio rerio), platyfish (Xiphophorus species), fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas), and sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus) were increasingly used establishing mechanisms of toxicants. Today, the same organisms provide reliable information at higher levels of biological organization relevant to ecotoxicology. We review studies resolving mechanisms of toxicity and discuss ways to address biocomplexity, mixtures of contaminants, and the need to relate individual level responses to populations and communities.     

Paleomagnetism of the Cambro-Ordovician McClure Mountain alkalic complex,Colorado

The Middle to Late Cambrian loop in the North American apparent polar wander path (APWP) has been variously attributed to tectonic rotations, remagnetizations and primary magnetizations. Although no primary thermal remanent magnetizations or primary detrital remanent magnetizations have as yet been demonstrated, the temporally self-consistent nature of the loop has been used as an argument for primary magnetizations. We have studied535 ± 5Ma nepheline syenites and syenites of the McClure Mountain alkalic complex, as well as495 ± 10Ma red trachyte dikes which intruded the complex, in an effort to find a primary TRM. Because Zijderveld analysis yielded consistent results for only one trachyte dike, remagnetization great-circle analysis was employed, giving a pole for the trachyte dikes at the tip of the loop (43°N, 114°E), while the syenites and nepheline synenites gave a pole at the base of the loop (18°N, 142°E). The magnetic carrier in the trachytes is hematite which apparently formed during a pervasive hydrothermal alteration. KAr whole rock dating of the trachytes suggests a Pennsylvanian age for the alteration, and thus a late Paleozoic remagnetization of the trachytes. Thus, the low-latitude Cambrian pole is confirmed, but we find no evidence in this study to support the primary nature of the Cambrian APWP.     

3,4-benzopyrene and perylene in mussels, Mytilus sp., from the Laguna Veneta,North-East Italy

From July, 1975 to November, 1976 mussels from the Laguna Veneta, north-east Italy, and the adjacent Adriatic Sea were collected bimonthly at ten stations and analysed for 3,4-benzopyrene (BaP) and perylene (Pe) content. Mean concentrations were in the range 12·0–135·1 μg/kg dry weight for BaP and 1·5–16·9 μg/kg for Pe, but values as high as 327 μg/kg for BaP and 71 μg/kg for Pe have been measured. The distribution of BaP and Pe closely matches previous results on petroleum hydrocarbon contamination in mussels from this area and indicates that the major portion of BaP and Pe in these bivalves is due principally to human activities.