The relative influences of climate and catchment processes on Holocene lake development in glaciated regions

Following deglaciation, the long-term pattern of change in diatom communities and the inferred history of the aquatic environment are affected by a hierarchy of environmental controls. These include direct climate impacts on a lake’s thermal and hydrologic budgets, as well as the indirect affects of climate on catchment processes, such as weathering, soil development, microbial activity, fire, and vegetation composition and productivity, which affect the transfer of solutes and particulates from the terrestrial ecosystem into the lake. Some of these catchment influences on lacustrine systems operate as time-dependent patterns of primary succession that are set in motion by glacier retreat. This paper provides a conceptual model of some dominant pathways of catchment influence on long-term lake development in glaciated regions and uses a series of paleolimnological examples from arctic, boreal, and temperate regions to evaluate the relative role of direct climate influences and of catchment processes in affecting the trajectory of aquatic ecosystems during the Holocene in different environmental contexts.     

An analysis of intra-event precipitation variability for the United States (1980–2010)

Hourly precipitation data were collected from 143 first-order US weather stations during the period from 1980 to 2009 to assess the internal distribution of precipitation events lasting at least three hours. A total of 46,595 individual precipitation events were identified and evaluated using the mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, and the number of peaks occurring within an event. Mean event duration is longest along the West and Northwest coasts, the Mid-South, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast; while shorter-duration events are more frequent in the Rocky Mountains, the Southwest, and the Great Plains. Mean event precipitation and standard deviation are greatest along the Gulf Coast and decrease inland. Precipitation events are positively skewed, indicating that more precipitation tends to occur earlier in the event. The most positively-skewed events are also located in regions flanking the Gulf of Mexico, while less-skewed events are common in the Northwest and Rocky Mountain regions. Event kurtosis is negative throughout the entire USA, with the highest negative values generally west of the Front Range, where cyclonic development and transition produce more evenly distributed precipitation within storms. Intra-event precipitation maxima were also evaluated, with western Florida and the desert Southwest having the greatest number per event.     

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.     

Effects of increased summer precipitation and N deposition on Mojave Desert populations of the biological crust moss Syntrichia caninervis

Climate change in the Mojave Desert (USA) may result in a greater intensity of summer (monsoon) rain events and greater atmospheric N deposition. Patches of the dominant biological crust moss Syntrichia caninervis were exposed to field treatments of low and high nitrogen supplementation, added summer rain, and combinations thereof, for a period of five years. In the lab, shoots were subjected to a moderate (single rapid-dry treatment) and a severe (double rapid-dry treatment) desiccation stress. Shoots were then hydrated and allowed to regenerate for 6 weeks on sterile sand. Shoots exhibited lower aboveground biomass from the +monsoon treatment, indicating carbon balance deficits under conditions of recurring summer rainfall. The low N treatment and the severe desiccation stress promoted shoot burning (chlorosis) and negatively affected regeneration responses. High N treatment, however, only adversely affected the resumption of apical meristematic growth. Summer irrigation and N application interacted to mitigate the effects of later protonemal emergence time, lower protonemal cover, and lower shoot numbers. Increased monsoonal frequency and higher N deposition as forecast for the northern Mojave Desert may result in declines in shoot biomass and reduced regenerational vigor in S. caninervis.     

Identifying linear and non-linear behaviour in reduced complexity modelling output using surrogate data methods

Validation of model output is an important issue in the environmental sciences. This is particularly the case for reduced complexity modelling approaches where verification of the underlying equations is often problematic. Hence, methods that go beyond validation based on average values or the histogram of model output, are clearly advantageous. In this paper we show that a validation method based on the serial properties of time–space data, and developed in geomorphology, is a useful alternative but is nevertheless still insensitive to certain asymmetric characteristics of the signal. Hence, use of this method for validation may be enhanced by the adoption of an accompanying test for asymmetry in the model output.     

Late Quaternary paleoenvironments of an ephemeral wetland in North Dakota,USA: relative interactions of ground-water hydrology and climate change

This study of fossils (pollen, plant macrofossils, stomata and fish) and sediments (lithostratigraphy and geochemistry) from the Wendel site in North Dakota, USA, emphasizes the importance of considering ground-water hydrology when deciphering paleoclimate signals from lakes in postglacial landscapes. The Wendel site was a paleolake from about 11,500 ¹⁴C yr BP to 11,100 ¹⁴C yr BP. Afterwards, the lake-level lowered until it became a prairie marsh by 9,300 ¹⁴C yr BP and finally, at 8,500 ¹⁴C yr BP, an ephemeral wetland as it is today. Meanwhile, the vegetation changed from a white spruce parkland (11,500 to 10,500 ¹⁴C yr BP) to deciduous parkland, followed by grassland at 9,300 ¹⁴C yr BP. The pattern and timing of these aquatic and terrestrial changes are similar to coeval kettle lake records from adjacent uplands, providing a regional aridity signal. However, two local sources of ground water were identified from the fossil and geochemical data, which mediated atmospheric inputs to the Wendel basin. First, the paleolake received water from the melting of stagnant ice buried under local till for about 900 years after glacier recession. Later, Holocene droughts probably caused the lower-elevation Wendel site to capture the ground water of up-gradient lakes.