Statistical model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone frequency in the mid-latitudes of East Asia

This study constructed a multiple linear regression model (MLRM) for the seasonal prediction of summer tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in the mid-latitudes of East Asia and then analyzed its validity using large-scale environments. The 850-hPa geopotential heights of the preceding April in the open ocean east of the Philippines and in the Bering Sea were used as independent variables. In the low-frequency years predicted by the MLRM, there was a larger amount of sea ice around the Sea of Okhotsk during the preceding spring and its cooling effect continued into the summer. In addition, topographic and geographic effects around the Sea of Okhotsk that results in the easy formation of cold air created an anomalous cold high over this region in the summer. As a result, the northerlies from an anomalous cold high around the Sea of Okhotsk caused cold surface air temperature anomalies in the mid-latitudes of East Asia, which played an important role in preventing a western Pacific subtropical high from advancing toward the mid-latitudes of East Asia. Eventually, these environments led to a reduced summer TC frequency in the mid-latitudes of East Asia.     

The significant increase of summer rainfall occurring in Korea from 1998

Using the techniques of empirical orthogonal function analysis and the change-point analysis to total summer rainfall from 60 weather observation stations, it was found that total summer (from June to September) rainfall in Korea has increased greatly since 1998. The increase level was higher in the season between Changma and late summer rainy season (from the end of July to early August) and in the season after late summer rainy season (after the early September). Among the reasons for increase of summer rainfall in Korea since 1998, the north-high and south-low pressure pattern formed around Korea drew attention. As northeasterlies and southeasterlies derived from these two pressure systems converged in Korea, rainfall and moisture convergence increased most in Korea of the East Asia regions (0–60°, 100–180° E). In addition, the atmosphere above Korea revealed that there were strong ascents from the ground to 200-hPa level with the warm air to 500-hPa level.     

What constitutes successful participatory disaster risk management? Insights from post-earthquake reconstruction work in rural Gujarat,India

Although for decades, public participation in disaster risk management has been strongly advocated for, in reality, it remains elusive. Planners and practitioners are still struggling to find ways to meaningfully involve the local community in disaster management programs; so far, apparently successful projects and initiatives have seldom been scaled up or replicated. The reason for this is that no comprehensive framework for participatory disaster risk management exists, and no systematic evaluation has been made to assess the necessary elements and appropriate paths for meaningful public participation in disaster management. This study attempts to examine the process and identify outcome-based factors that account for successful participatory disaster risk management. To accomplish this, we have evaluated reconstruction projects in earthquake-affected rural Gujarat, India, where the government envisioned a people-centric reconstruction project, but provided no public participation framework or guidelines. As a result, several reconstruction models pursuing different levels and types of public participation ultimately emerged. We selected three dominant reconstruction approaches and examined the extent to which various processes and outcome-based factors were successful in promoting ideal levels of public participation during these reconstruction projects. This study is considered an example of pioneering research in defining factors that account for successful participatory disaster risk management.     

Performance and Sustainability of District-Scale Ground Coupled Heat Pump Systems

This study proposes a solution to the problem of maintaining the performance and sustainability of district-scale, cooling-dominated ground coupled heat pump (GCHP) systems. These systems tend to overheat because heat dissipates slowly in relation to the size of the borefields. To demonstrate this problem, a 2000-borehole field is considered at a district-scale GCHP system in the Upper Midwest, US. The borefield’s ground and fluid temperature responses to its design heating and cooling loads are simulated using computational fluid dynamics implemented by applying the finite volume method. The ground temperature is predicted by applying the thermal loads uniformly over the borefield and simulating heat dissipation to the surrounding geology through conduction coupled with advection due to groundwater flow. The results show that a significant energy imbalance will develop in the ground after the first few years of GCHP operation, even with high rates of groundwater flow. The model presented in this study predicts that the temperature at the center of the borefield will reach 18 °C after 5 years and approximately 50 °C after 20 years of operation in the absence of any mitigation strategies. The fluid temperature in the boreholes is then simulated using a single borehole model to estimate the heat pump coefficient of performance, which decreases as the modeled system heats up. To balance the energy inputs/outputs to the ground—thus maintaining the system’s performance—an operating scheme utilizing cold-water circulation during the winter is evaluated. Under the simulated conditions, this mitigation strategy carries the excess energy out of the borefield. Therefore, the proposed mitigation strategy may be a viable measure to sustaining the operating efficiency of cooling-dominated, district-scale borefields in climates with cold winters.     

Right-lateral strike-slip movement of the South Korea Plateau associated with the opening of the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

Multi-channel seismic profiles and swath bathymetric data were used to investigate the tectonic evolution of the South Korea Plateau (SKP) associated with the opening of the East Sea (Japan Sea). The SKP is a deformed fragment of continental crust with numerous horsts and sediment-filled grabens. Three sedimentary units in the plateau were identified, which consist of the lower sequence (Unit I) interpreted as syn-rifting deposition during the early to middle Miocene, and the middle and upper sequences (Units II and III) considered as post-rifting deposition since the late Miocene. The fault system in the SKP includes the South Korea Plateau Fault (SKPF) trending NNW-SSE and smaller en echelon normal faults oriented NE-SW. We interpreted the information to postulate that the formation of the SKPF is the result of divergent right-lateral strike-slip movement in the SKP. This study suggests that the dextral movement of the SKP was induced by WSW-ward propagation of the spreading center located in the Japan Basin from the early to middle Miocene times.     

The occurrence of Clithon retropictus (v. Martens, 1879) (Gastropoda: Neritidae) in an unusual habitat, northern Jeju Island, Republic of Korea

Clithon retropictus is a neritid gastropod inhabiting mainly brackish water. Currently this species has been listed as a second grade endangered species of wildlife in Korea by the Ministry of Environment, due to the decrease in its population size. C. retropictus has previously been identified from estuaries on the south coast of Korea. In Jeju Island, this species has been reported only from the south coast. However, a population has recently been discovered on the north coast of the island in an apparently new type of habitat, under rocks adjacent to a dry riverbed on a muddy substrate. C. retropictus was found to be aggregated under some of the larger rocks, and the habitat was located near the high tide line. The present study reports some possible reasons for the occurrence of the population in this unusual habitat, and provides useful information on the biometry and population size which can be used in the management of this endangered species.     

Surface current response to wind and plumes in a bay-shape estuary of the eastern Yellow Sea: Ocean radar observation

Response of surface subtidal current to wind and outflow plume in the bay-shape estuary, which had been artificially made by the Samangeum reclamation dike with two sluices in the west coast of Korea, was examined using the ocean radar-derived current data obtained in the summer 2010. The southerly wind was dominant due to Asian summer monsoon and the outflow plume water was discharged by the gate operation of the Shinsi and Garyeok sluices separated by 11 km into the study area that are opened in a southwestward direction. The monthly-mean flow pattern consisted of the westward outflow currents around the two sluices, the along-dike currents between the two sluices and the northward currents in the outer bay. Based upon the complex correlations of subtidal current to wind and outflow jets we explained that the northward mean current in the outer bay be formed by both the southerly wind-driven current and the geostrophic current by mean pressure setup due to the Ekman transport and plume water accumulation in the inner bay, and the along-dike mean current may be induced by the southerly wind that generates on-dike currents in the central region of study area and leads to pressure setup toward the dike between the two sluices. Combination of outflow jets, wind and coastline configuration affects variations of subtidal surface current in the inner bay. Variability of subtidal current in the outer bay is dominated by wind variation. The southerly wind produced the northward current in the outer bay though the outflow plumes from the two sluices turned clockwise from the inner to the outer bay due to the geostrophic balance when the wind was calm. The wind factor was from 2% to 7% depending on the amount of freshwater outflow and wind speed. Occasionally, when plume water discharges were large and the southerly wind was stronger than 5 m/s, a large eddy with a closed loop current was produced off the Shinsi sluice.     

REE geochemistry of fine-grained sediments from major rivers around the Yellow Sea

To investigate the distribution pattern and controlling factors of rare earth elements (REEs) in riverine sediments, river mouth sediments were collected at five geographically different rivers around the Yellow Sea. Two- (1 M HCl leached and residual fractions) and five-step sequential extraction schemes (the SEDEX method) were applied to size-separated sediments < 20 µm. For the total REE composition, patterns normalized relative to the upper continental crust (UCC) showed light REE (LREE) and middle (MREE) enrichments in the Korean river sediments and MREE enrichment in the Chinese river sediments. LREE and MREE enrichments in 1 M HCl leached fractions played a major role in the distribution patterns of the total compositions in all the river sediments. About half of LREE enrichment in Korean river sediments was explained by the residual fraction. Comparison of the REE composition with major elements (Al, Fe, Ca, P) in each fraction of the SEDEX scheme revealed that MREE enrichment could be explained by reactive iron minerals, including goethite and hematite, although REE/Fe ratios showed different trends among the rivers due to different major REE-host iron minerals. After extracting reactive irons, authigenic phosphate, and carbonate, the sequential 1 M HCl fraction indicated that LREE enrichment in Korean river sediments may have originated from clay minerals, such as chlorite. These observations suggest that LREE enrichment may be a good tracer, while MREE enrichment should be used cautiously considering diagenetic modification, when using the REE composition to identify the sources of terrestrial materials.