The role of biomorphodynamics in estuarine evolution in New Zealand

Abstract:   Biomorphodynamic interactions, the feedback loops that operate between physical processes, biology and morphology, affect the long-term evolution of estuaries. This paper outlines how consideration of such interactions and implementation through innovative modelling techniques can become the next crucial step needed to advance understanding of estuarine evolution.     

New Zealand coastal system boundaries, connections and management

Abstract:    Understanding coastal boundaries, connections and drivers of landscape change is integral to effective coastal planning and management. This concept is explored here through case studies representing two very different New Zealand systems: embayed sand beaches in eastern and western open-coast settings; and mixed sand and gravel coast river-mouth lagoons. When framed within a resource and environmental management context these studies indicate that national recognition of the dynamic and interactive nature of coastal environments is a relatively new and amorphous phenomenon in New Zealand and, as such, has been ineffective in driving integrated regional management practices and sustainable coastal outcomes.     

Uncertainty-based multi-criteria calibration of rainfall-runoff models: a comparative study

This study compares formal Bayesian inference to the informal generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach for uncertainty-based calibration of rainfall-runoff models in a multi-criteria context. Bayesian inference is accomplished through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling based on an auto-regressive multi-criteria likelihood formulation. Non-converged MCMC sampling is also considered as an alternative method. These methods are compared along multiple comparative measures calculated over the calibration and validation periods of two case studies. Results demonstrate that there can be considerable differences in hydrograph prediction intervals generated by formal and informal strategies for uncertainty-based multi-criteria calibration. Also, the formal approach generates definitely preferable validation period results compared to GLUE (i.e., tighter prediction intervals that show higher reliability) considering identical computational budgets. Moreover, non-converged MCMC (based on the standard Gelman–Rubin metric) performance is reasonably consistent with those given by a formal and fully-converged Bayesian approach even though fully-converged results requires significantly larger number of samples (model evaluations) for the two case studies. Therefore, research to define alternative and more practical convergence criteria for MCMC applications to computationally intensive hydrologic models may be warranted.     

Atmospheric stabilization and the timing of carbon mitigation

Stabilization of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations below a pre-industrial doubling (~550 ppm) is a commonly cited target in climate policy assessment. When the rate at which future emissions can fall is assumed to be fixed, the peak atmospheric concentration – or the stabilization “frontier” – is an increasing and convex function of the length of postponement. Here we find that a decline in emissions of 1% year^?1 beginning today would place the frontier near 475 ppm and that when mitigation is postponed, options disappear (on average) at the rate of ~9 ppm year^?1, meaning that delays of more than a decade will likely preclude stabilization below a doubling. When constraints on the future decline rate of emissions are relaxed, a particular atmospheric target can be realized in many ways, with scenarios that allow longer postponement of emissions reductions requiring greater increases in the intensity of future mitigation. However, the marginal rate of substitution between future mitigation and present delay becomes prohibitively large when the balance is shifted too far toward the future, meaning that some amount of postponement cannot be fully offset by simply increasing the intensity of future mitigation. Consequently, these results suggest that a practical transition path to a given stabilization target in the most commonly cited range can allow, at most, one or two decades of delay.     

Impacts of a bivalve mass mortality event on an estuarine food web and bivalve grazing pressure

Declines in bivalve populations have been quite common worldwide, often associated with coastal development, pollution and climate change. In addition to the impacts of these chronic stressors, occasional mass mortality events may have severe consequences on ecosystem services and biodiversity. In this study, we examined the impact of a mass mortality event of the clam (Austrovenus stutchburyi) on an estuarine food web and the grazing pressure exerted by the bivalve population. In February 2009, c. 60% of the clam population died in Whangateau Harbour, New Zealand. Population clearance rate calculations suggest that the clam population do not exert significant top-down control on phytoplankton biomass in the estuary, and thus the impact of the mortality event on bivalve grazing pressure was less severe than the reduction in abundance would suggest. A trophic model shows that phytoplankton play a limited role in the estuary food web, which is instead dominated by microphytobenthos and clams. This study highlights the importance of microphytobenthos in shallow estuaries, and the application of the trophic model is a useful tool that can identify key components of the ecosystem and could help inform monitoring programmes.     

Short- and Long-Term Response of Deteriorating Brackish Marshes and Open-Water Ponds to Sediment Enhancement by Thin-Layer Dredge Disposal

Artificial sediment enhancement using a thin layer of dredged material has been suggested as a means to increase elevation and create soil conditions conducive to increased marsh structure and function in deteriorating marshes. Using a chronosequence approach, we examined the effects of sediment enhancement in deteriorating marsh and open-water pond habitats located in six brackish marshes. Sediment enhancement of both marsh and interior pond sites had significant, immediate, and long-lasting effects on physical soil properties and nutrient status with increased bulk density and inorganic nitrogen. Vegetative cover and productivity response were minimal for deteriorating vegetated marshes with the short-term response data showing no significant impact of sediment enhancement and long-term trends indicating decreasing productivity over time. In contrast, trajectory models of vegetative cover and productivity in interior pond sites showed increases over time indicating that, for restoration of interior ponds, sediment enhancement may prove valuable. The use of trajectory models emphasizes the need for long-term monitoring to determine restoration success of projects.     

Controls on loss-on-ignition variation in cores from two shallow lakes in the northeastern United States

Loss-on-ignition analysis of Quaternary lake sediments provides an inexpensive and easy way to investigate past environmental changes. The mass loss on ignition at 550 °C (LOI) from lake sediment cores may vary because of temporal changes in: (1) sediment composition controlled by factors such as productivity, inorganic inputs, and decomposition; and (2) the patterns of sediment accumulation controlled by factors such as basin morphology and water level. Climatic changes can alter both. Here, modern surface samples and transects of sediment cores, collected across small (<10 ha), shallow (<4 m) lakes in the northeastern United States, show that LOI varies little (2–5%) across the deep portions of these small lakes at a given time. Large changes in LOI occur only at the transition into the littoral (shallow) zone. LOI variations in sediment cores that exceed 2–5%, therefore, appear to represent meaningful environmental changes. However, because of the many possible controls, changes in the LOI of a single core are often hard to interpret. Multiple cores increase the interpretability. At lakes studied here, similar LOI trends among several cores confirm that some LOI changes resulted from basin-wide shifts in sediment composition. Differences among cores, however, developed during the early- and mid-Holocene and indicate that the edge of the littoral zone moved towards the centers of the lakes during two periods of low lake levels, at ca. 11 000–8000 and ca. 5400–3000 cal yr B.P. The basin-wide balance of sediment sources controlled the LOI from deep-water sediments, but sedimentation patterns, which changed as lake levels changed, were also important. LOI differences among cores may therefore help identify past lake-level changes in other lakes.     

Hydraulic conditions for rill incision under simulated rainfall: A laboratory experiment

A series of controlled laboratory experiments were conducted in order to obtain precise data on the hydraulic and sediment transport conditions during rill formation. Tests were carried out using a crusting-prone binary mixed soil in a 15 m long flume at an average slope of 0·087 under simulated rainfall. Rainfall intensities varied from 30–35 mm h^?1 and developed about 70 per cent of the kinetic energy of natural rainfall of similar intensity. Runoff and sediment discharge measured at the downstream weir were strongly influenced by rill forming processes. Essentially, rill incision reduced runoff discharge as a result of increased percolation in rill channels but increased sediment discharge. Secondary entrainment processes, such as bank collapse, also increased sediment discharge at the weir. Knickpoint bifurcation and colluvial deposition, however, decreased sediment discharge. Rills always developed through the formation of a knickpoint. The critical condition for knickpoint initiation was the development of supercritical flow and waves which mould and incise the bed. Prior smoothing of the soil surface by entrainment and redistribution of sediment facilitated supercritical flow. Statistical analysis showed that hydraulic and sediment transport conditions differed significantly in rilled and unrilled flows. The relationship between sediment discharge, rill erosion, and flow hydraulics was found to be nonlinear, conforming to a standard power function in the form y = ax^b. Rills were also associated with significantly increased sediment transport capacities. However, rill initiation was not clearly defined by any specific hydraulic threshold. Instead, rilled and unrilled flows were separated by zones of transition within which both types of flow occur.     

Contrasted glass-whole rock compositions and phenocryst re-distribution,IPOD Sites 417 and 418

Major element composition ranges of closely associated basalt glass-whole rock pairs from individual small cooling units approach the total known range of basalt glass and whole rock compositions at IPOD sites 417 and 418. The whole rock samples fall into two groups: one is depleted in MgO and distinctly enriched in plagioclase but has lost some olivine and/or pyroxene relative to its corresponding glass; and the other is enriched in MgO and in phenocrysts of olivine and pyroxene as well as plagioclase compared to its corresponding glass. By analogy with observed phenocryst distributions in lava pillows, tubes, and dikes, and with some theoretical studies, we infer that bulk rock compositions are strongly affected by phenocryst redistribution due to gravity settling, flotation, and dynamic sorting after eruption, although specific models are not well constrained by the one-dimensional geometry of drill core.Compositional trends or groupings in whole rock data resulting from such late-stage processes should not be confused with more fundamental compositional effects produced in deep chambers or during partial melting.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution Number 3243.Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Contribution Number 4838