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61.
Concerns over the rapid retreat rates of mountain glaciers have been rising as global temperatures have continued to increase. The extent of variation in the retreat of mountain glaciers can provide information about changes to different climatic conditions. Assessing the retreat rates of glaciers is crucial to assess the continuing existence of mountain glaciers and the ramifications of those retreats on water security for human societies. Therefore, mathematical and statistical models for the quantification of glacier dynamics in response to climate change are in high demand. In this research, we propose a multivariate regression model that estimates glacier change and predicts the location of glacier terminus over time, based on observed climate factors. The proposed method is applied to temporal sequences of ground observations for a number of glaciers around the globe. This model can potentially be used for monitoring glacier systems using climatic factors. 相似文献
62.
Christopher J. Daly Karin R. Bryan Mauricio R. Gonzalez Antonio H. F. Klein Christian Winter 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(6):863-877
In order to decrease the simulation time of morphodynamic models, often-complex wave climates are reduced to a few representative wave conditions (RWC). When applied to embayed beaches, a test of whether a reduced wave climate is representative or not is to see whether it can recreate the observed equilibrium (long-term averaged) bathymetry of the bay. In this study, the wave climate experienced at Milagro Beach, Tarragona, Spain was discretized into ‘average’ and ‘extreme’ RWCs. Process-based morphodynamic simulations were sequenced and merged based on ‘persistent’ and ‘transient’ forcing conditions, the results of which were used to estimate the equilibrium bathymetry of the bay. Results show that the effect of extreme wave events appeared to have less influence on the equilibrium of the bay compared to average conditions of longer overall duration. Additionally, the persistent seasonal variation of the wave climate produces pronounced beach rotation and tends to accumulate sediment at the extremities of the beach, rather than in the central sections. It is, therefore, important to account for directional variability and persistence in the selection and sequencing of representative wave conditions as is it essential for accurately balancing the effects beach rotation events. 相似文献
63.
Over 1000 laboratory measurements of the 2-4 mm-wavelength opacity of ammonia have been made under simulated jovian atmospheric conditions using a high-precision laboratory system developed at Georgia Tech. These laboratory measurements of the opacity of ammonia were made of various gas mixtures of hydrogen (∼77.5-85.5%), helium (∼12.5-13.5%), and ammonia (1-10%) at pressures between 1 and 3 bars and temperatures between 200 and 300 K. Laboratory measurements were also made of the opacity of pure ammonia at pressures between 0.05 and 1 bar and temperatures between 200 and 300 K. Using these millimeter-wavelength measurements and close to 2000 cm-wavelength measurements made by Hanley et al. (2009), a new consistent model has been developed to accurately characterize the absorption spectra of ammonia in a hydrogen/helium atmosphere in the 1 mm to 30 cm wavelength range. This model can be used in the 1-30 cm wavelength range at pressures up to 20 bars and temperatures from 200 to 500 K and in the 1 mm to 1 cm wavelength range at pressures up to 3 bars and temperatures from 200 to 300 K. These measurements and the accompanying model will enable better interpretation of the centimeter- and millimeter-wavelength emission spectra of the jovian planets. 相似文献
64.
The current study sought to offer guidance for developing effective web-based mapping tools for wildfire warnings by identifying (1) the important content for facilitating individuals’ decision-making, and (2) the optimal interface design for ensuring usability and ease of information access. A map-based warning tool was prototyped in the Australian context, followed by a usability and effectiveness evaluation through individual interviews and verbal protocol analysis to assess participants’ interaction with the mapping interface and information in response to the simulated warning scenario. The results demonstrated variations in participants’ approaches to wildfire warning response, revealing varied information needs. Specifically, most participants relied on their own assessment of the prospective threat, requiring specific wildfire-related information before eliciting a response. In contrast, the decision of a minority of the participants was motivated by response guidance from agencies, and accurate wildfire information was less important for their response. Imperative information for both types of residents therefore needs to be highlighted in a map-based warning tool to cater to a wide audience. Furthermore, a number of heuristics were identified for designing effective interactive functions to facilitate the control of, and access to, the various maps and textual information presented on the map-based warning interface. 相似文献
65.
Observations of asymmetry in contrasting wave‐ and tidally‐dominated environments within a mesotidal basin: implications for estuarine morphological evolution
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Tides are often considered to be the dominant hydrodynamic process within mesotidal estuaries although waves can also have a large influence on intertidal erosion rates. Here, we use a combination of hydrodynamic measurements and sediment deposition records to determine the conditions under which observed waves are ‘morphologically significant’, in which case they influence tidal and suspended sediment flux asymmetry and subsequently infilling over geomorphological timescales. Morphological significant conditions were evaluated using data from contrasting arms in a dendritic mesotidal estuary, in which the orientation of the arms relative to the prevailing wind results in a marked difference in wave conditions, deposition rates and morphology. By defining the morphological significance of waves as a product of the magnitude of bed shear stress and frequency of occurrence, even small (but frequently occurring) winds are shown to be capable of generating waves that are morphologically significant given sufficient fetch. In the arm in which fetch length is restricted, only stronger but rare storm events can influence sediment flux and therefore tides are more morphologically significant over longer timescales. Water depth within this mesotidal estuary is shown to be a critical parameter in controlling morphological significance; the rapid attenuation of short period waves with depth results in contrasting patterns of erosion occurring during neaps and accretion during springs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
66.
Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Jeffrey T. Bury Bryan G. Mark Jeffrey M. McKenzie Adam French Michel Baraer Kyung In Huh Marco Alfonso Zapata Luyo Ricardo Jes��s G��mez L��pez 《Climatic change》2011,105(1-2):179-206
Glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are undergoing rapid retreat, in large part due to climate change. These changes are significantly altering water availability in the region and pose critical risks to local populations that are highly dependent on these resources for livelihoods. We examine these issues through an interdisciplinary and linked evaluation of hydrological change and livelihood vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed. Physical observations of the Yanamarey glacier show acceleration in frontal retreat at a rate of 8 m decade???1 since 1970, accompanied by total volume loss on the order of 0.022 km3. Hydrological and hydrochemical analyses document a possible transformation of stream flow over the past decade as the seasonal storage capacity of the glacier has degraded. Recent stream discharge measurements from the proglacial lake below the glacier are more coincident with the highly variable seasonal precipitation than they were during the 1998?C1999 hydrological year. Local household perceptions of glacier recession and seasonal hydrological variability agree with this trend, which is increasing human vulnerability in the watershed. Household case-study survey results demonstrate that shifting water resources, increasing weather extremes and climate-related threats to tourism are all new vectors of vulnerability for household livelihoods. 相似文献
67.
Ted Goebel Bryan Hockett Kenneth D. Adams David Rhode Kelly Graf 《Quaternary International》2011,242(2):479-501
Global climate change associated with the onset of the Younger Dryas chronozone affected different regions of the northern hemisphere in different ways. In the Great Basin of western North America, the effect was positive for human populations. Relatively cool temperatures causing effectively wetter conditions filled some pluvial basins with shallow but permanent lakes and other basins with well-watered marshes or meadows. Vegetation communities dominated by sagebrush and grasses promoted healthy and diverse animal populations. Ten archaeological sites from the region have been dated to the Younger Dryas chronozone. Evidence from these sites indicates that Paleoindians with skull shapes and mitochondrial DNA similar to modern western North American Indians occupied the region. These early humans produced a material culture characterized predominantly by large stemmed bifacial points, although one site contained a small fluted point. Curated tool forms and technological activities represented in analyzed lithic assemblages suggest a highly mobile settlement strategy, and redundant short-term occupations of sites indicate frequent and long-distance residential moves across territories spanning distances of up to 400 km. Paleoindian subsistence pursuits focused on artiodactyls (primarily mule deer, bighorn sheep, and pronghorn antelope), leporids (chiefly jackrabbits), birds (sage grouse and waterfowl), insects (grasshoppers), and possibly fish. Easy-to-process plants like cactus pads were also eaten, but small seeds do not seem to have been an important part of Great Basin human diets until long after the Younger Dryas, closer to 9500 cal BP. The Great Basin record contains no evidence for natural catastrophe at the onset of the chronozone. Instead, the Younger Dryas appears to have been among the best of times for human foragers in this region of North America. 相似文献
68.
An Investigation of Discontinuity Roughness Scale Dependency Using High-Resolution Surface Measurements 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
The influence of roughness on the hydro-mechanical behavior of rock discontinuities has long been recognized. As a result, several definitions and measures of roughness have been developed. According to the ISRM (Int J Rock Mech Min Sci Geomech Abstr 15(6):319–368, 1978), discontinuity roughness comprises large-scale (waviness) and small-scale (unevenness) components. However, the division between these scales is not clear and most investigations of surface roughness have been restricted to small fracture surfaces (<1 m2). Hence, the large-scale components of roughness are often neglected. Furthermore, these investigations typically define roughness using two-dimensional profiles rather than three-dimensional surfaces, which can lead to biased estimates of roughness. These limitations have led to some contradictory findings regarding roughness scale dependency (scale effects). This paper aims to provide some explanation of these contradictory findings. Through the in situ digitization and analysis of two adjacent large-scale (~2 × 3 m2 and ~2 × 2 m2) migmatitic-gneiss fracture surfaces, the influence of sample size on roughness estimates are investigated. In addition, the influence of measurement resolution on roughness estimates is investigated by digitizing small-scale (100 × 100 mm2) samples from the same fracture with varying resolution. The findings show roughness to increase as a function of the sampling window size, in contrast to what is commonly assumed. That is, the combined waviness and unevenness of a discontinuity relative to its mean plane increases with scale. Compared to the sampling window size, the resolution of surface measurements is shown to have a far greater influence on roughness estimates. This influence of measurement resolution may explain some of the contradictory roughness scale relationships that have been published previously. It is important to note that the observed decrease in shear strength with increasing scale, as observed in many prior studies, is not being questioned; rather, a clarification of the role of roughness in this phenomenon is sought. 相似文献
69.
70.
Yuqing Zhang Fengqi Zhang Xiaogan Cheng Xiubin Lin Hanlin Chen Karl‐Heinz Wyrwoll Lei Wu Jie Chen Bryan Krape Yanchou Lu Weiwei Ding Kaixuan An Yaguang Chen Chunyang Li 《地学学报》2021,33(1):1-11
The Altyn Tagh Fault (ATF) serves as a key continental‐scale controlling structural element of the Tibetan Plateau. However, its eastward extent remains controversial. Here we use high‐resolution seismic reflection profiles to investigate the subsurface structures of the easternmost ATF and use these to delimit the easternmost extent of the fault. The structural analyses show an eastward geometric change from transpressional positive flower structures to compressional thrusts, with transpression‐induced shortening magnitudes decreasing eastwards from a maximum of ~5.3 km to being absent. Stratigraphic controls indicate that the deformation took place over the last ~<1.2 Ma. Our wider findings lead us to: (a) reject the suggestion that the ATF previously extended beyond the Kuantan Shan‐Hei Shan to link with the Alxa‐East Mongolia Fault; and (b) propose that the rigid block model used to describe the Tibetan Plateau crust is not consistent with the extent and structural details of the easternmost ATF. 相似文献