Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology: analysis of Christchurch Public Hospital video data from the 22 February Christchurch earthquake event

Earthquake epidemiological research indicates that the behavioural response influences the nature and severity of injuries sustained. However, there is no observational evidence of the actions individuals engage in during and immediately following earthquake shaking, and the context in which earthquake injuries and deaths are caused. Closed Circuit Television Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology has been developed as a tool to classify human behaviour during and immediately following earthquake shaking using real event video data. The coding methodology was applied to security video data captured during the 22 February 2011 M_w6.3 ‘Christchurch’ earthquake event from the Christchurch Public Hospital which experienced shaking intensity of MM9 lasting approximately 12–15 s. We applied this coding methodology to determine: demography, trans-event behavioural responses, post-event behavioural responses, influence of social context on behaviour, and influence of behaviour on injuries. A total of 213 individuals from 31 different camera views were analysed. Sixty-six per cent of the individuals were adult-aged females. The primary trans-event responses were to hold (26%) onto furniture, walls, and/or other people close to them and to look around (30%). No individuals were observed to perform all ‘Drop, Cover, Hold’ actions, the recommended action during strong earthquake shaking in New Zealand. Post-event behaviour included: running, walking, providing assistance, moving towards others, visual communication, and some individuals gave instructions. Social contextual behaviour varied depending on the role of the adult. There were no serious injuries linked to behaviour. The results of this initial study indicate the coding methodology can record the distribution of and variation in human behaviours. Therefore, objective observation of earthquake video data can provide a useful quantitative measure of human behaviour. Significantly, the process will enable researchers to look more closely at behaviours, as well as the social and physical contexts associated with injury risk during and immediately following earthquake shaking.     

Ecological function regionalization of cultural heritage sites in Turpan,China, based on GIS

The protection for historical and cultural heritage and their surrounding environments is much more important than any other preventive efforts made by humans, so how to protect them and achieve sustainable utilization should be a priority. Regionalization is an efficient and a sustainable tool to manage the protected areas. In this study, based on regionalization of natural protected areas theory, we used ecological sensitivity analysis to regionalize the heritage sites in Turpan, China. Factors for the analysis are topography, ecological environments, human activity, and landscape resources. Based on the analysis of environmental status and spatial variation of ecological sensitivity in Turpan, this paper aims at developing a regionalization scheme and provides a scientific basis for protection and restoration of vulnerable historical and cultural sites. Our study results showed that 75% of the heritage sites in Turpan have sensitivity which is under dangerous condition and requires better planning and protection. This study provided a reliable and scientific way to regionalize heritage sites in the study area and which also can be transferred to other locations with similar situation.     

A case study to verify methods for estimating transmissivity distributions along boreholes

Two methods, both using data from fixed-interval-length hydraulic tests and geological mapping on different scales, have been utilised to estimate transmissivity distributions of individual fractures. Individual fracture properties are of importance in estimating transport of water and solutes; they influence the spreading of grout when sealing tunnels. One of the methods is non-parametric, while the other is based on combinatorics and the multiplication principle. The study verified the usefulness of both methods for estimating the probability of conductive and non-conductive fractures, and the transmissivity distributions. Data for estimating transmissivity distributions originate from flow logging of a borehole in Sweden. Fracture frequency data are from core logging and images using a borehole image processing system (BIPS). Estimated transmissivity distributions, based on flow log data from 3-m sections (test scale length, L: 3 m, and step length, dL: 3 m), were compared with transmissivities obtained directly from detailed, overlapping flow logging which identify individual conductive fractures (test scale, L: 0.5 m, step length, dL: 0.1 m). The latter data are considered to be an acceptable approximation of the individual fracture transmissivities; the agreement, compared with the calculated transmissivity distributions based on 3-m section data, is good for both methods.

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Resumen Se han utilizado dos métodos, ambos procesando datos de pruebas hidráulicas de longitud e intervalo fijo y mapas geológicos en distintas escalas, para estimar las distribuciones de transmisividad de fracturas individuales. Las propiedades de fracturas individuales son de importancia para estimar el transporte de agua y solutos; las propiedades influyen en la propagación de lechada al sellar túneles. Uno de los métodos es no paramétrico mientras que el otro se basa en el principio de multiplicación y combinatorio. El estudio verifica la utilidad de ambos métodos para estimar la probabilidad de fracturas conductivas y no conductivas y las distribuciones de transmisividad. Los datos para estimar las distribuciones de transmisividad se originan del registro de flujo de un pozo en Suecia. Los datos de frecuencia de fracturas provienen de registros de núcleo e imágenes usando un Sistema de Procesamiento de Imágenes de Pozo (BIPS). Se compararon las distribuciones estimadas de transmisividad basadas en datos del registro de flujo en secciones de 3 m (longitud de escala de la prueba L: 3 m, y escalón de longitud dL: 3 m), con transmisividades obtenidas directamente de registros detallados de flujo superpuesto el cual identifica fracturas conductivas individuales (escala de la prueba, L: 0.5 m, escalón de longitud, dL: 0.1 m). Los últimos datos se consideran una aproximación aceptable de las transmisividades de fracturas individuales; la consistencia, comparada con las distribuciones de transmisividad calculada basadas en datos de sección de 3 m, es buena para ambos métodos.

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Résumé Deux méthodes ont été testées afin d’estimer la distribution des transmissivités de fractures unitaires; toutes deux utilisent des données issues de tests hydrauliques effectués à intervalles réguliers et de cartographies géologiques à plusieurs échelles. La connaissance des propriétés des fractures unitaires est importante pour estimer le transport d’eau et de solutés; elles influencent en outre l’étalement du coulis lors du scellement des tunnels. La première méthode est non-paramétrique, et la seconde repose sur l’analyse combinatoire et le principe de multiplication. Cette étude a vérifié l’utilité des deux méthodes pour estimer la probabilité d’occurrence de fractures conductrices et non-conductrices, et la distribution des transmissivités. Les distributions des transmissivités ont été estimées à partir de diagraphies effectuées sur un forage situé en Suède. Les densités de fracturation proviennent de carottages et d’imagerie BIPS (Borehole Image Processing System). Les distributions estimées des transmissivités, basées sur des diagraphies de flux effectuées sur des sections de 3 m (échelle du test L:3 m; pas dL:3 m), ont été comparées aux transmissivités obtenues sur des diagraphies de flux détaillées et se chevauchant, identifiant les fractures conductrices unitaires (échelle du test L: 0.5 m ; pas dL: 0.1 m). Il est admis que ces dernières données représentent une approximation satisfaisante des transmissivités des fractures unitaires; les deux méthodes sont en accord avec les distributions des transmissivités calculées à partir des données acquises sur des sections de 3 m.

     

Vertical migration of municipal wastewater in deep injection well systems,South Florida,USA

Deep well injection is widely used in South Florida, USA for wastewater disposal largely because of the presence of an injection zone (“boulder zone” of Floridan Aquifer System) that is capable of accepting very large quantities of fluids, in some wells over 75,000 m³/day. The greatest potential risk to public health associated with deep injection wells in South Florida is vertical migration of wastewater, containing pathogenic microorganisms and pollutants, into brackish-water aquifer zones that are being used for alternative water-supply projects such as aquifer storage and recovery. Upwards migration of municipal wastewater has occurred in a minority of South Florida injection systems. The results of solute-transport modeling using the SEAWAT program indicate that the measured vertical hydraulic conductivities of the rock matrix would allow for only minimal vertical migration. Fracturing at some sites increased the equivalent average vertical hydraulic conductivity of confining zone strata by approximately four orders of magnitude and allowed for vertical migration rates of up 80 m/year. Even where vertical migration was rapid, the documented transit times are likely long enough for the inactivation of pathogenic microorganisms.     

Properties of the aftershocks sequences of the 2000 and 2002 earthquakes in Aksehir-Afyon graben,west-central Anatolia,Turkey

The b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter’s frequency–magnitude relation and the p-value of the modified Omori law, which describes the decay rate of aftershock activity, were investigated for more than 500 aftershocks in the Aksehir-Afyon graben (AAG) following the 15 December 2000 Sultandagi–Aksehir and the 3 February 2002 Çay–Eber and Çobanlar earthquakes. We used the Kandilli Observatory’s catalog, which contains records of aftershocks with magnitudes ≥2.5. For the Çobanlar earthquake, the estimated b-values for three aftershock sequences are in the range 0.34 ≤  b ≤ 2.85, with the exception of the one that occurred during the first hour (4.77), while the obtained p-values are in the range 0.44 ≤ p ≤ 1.77. The aftershocks of the Sultandagi earthquake have a high p-value, indicating fast decay of the aftershock activity. A regular increase of b can be observed, with b < 1.0 after 0.208 days for the Çay–Eber earthquake. A systematic and similar increase and decrease pattern exists for the b- and p-values of the Çobanlar earthquakes during the first 5 days.     

Trophic Assessment in Chinese coastal systems-review of methods and application to the Changjiang (Yangtze) Estuary and Jiaozhou Bay

Coastal eutrophication has become one of the main threats to Chinese coastal areas during the last two decades. High nutrient loads from human activities have modified the natural background water quality in coastal water bodies, resulting in a range of undesirable effects. There is a need to assess the eutrophic level in coastal systems and to identify the extent of this impact to guide development of appropriate management efforts. Traditional Chinese assessment methods are discussed and compared with other currently-used methods, such as the Oslo-Paris Convention for the Protection of the North Sea (OSPAR) Comprehensive Procedure and Assessment of Estuarine Trophic Status (ASSETS). The ASSETS method and two Chinese methods were tested on two Chinese systems: the Changjiang (Yangtze) Estuary and Jiaozhou Bay. ASSETS is process based, and uses a pressure-state-response model based on three main indices: Influencing Factors, Overall Eutrophic Condition, and Future Outlook. The traditional methods are based on a nutrient index. ASSETS was successfully applied to both systems, classifying the Changjiang Estuary as Bad (high eutrophication) and Jiaozhou Bay as High (low eutrophication). The traditional methods led to ambiguous results, particularly for Jiaozhou Bay, due to the high spatial variability of data and a failure to assess the role of shellfish aquaculture in nutrient control. An overview of the Chinese coastal zone identifies 50 estuaries and bays that should form part of a national assessment. A comparison of methods and results suggests that ASSETS is a promising tool for evaluating the eutrophication status of these systems.     

Time independent seismic hazard analysis in Alborz and surrounding area

The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability is high.     

A non-hydrostatic model for the numerical study of landslide-generated waves

This paper proposes and demonstrates a two-layer depth-averaged model with non-hydrostatic pressure correction to simulate landslide-generated waves. Landslide (lower layer) and water (upper layer) motions are governed by the general shallow water equations derived from mass and momentum conservation laws. The landslide motion and wave generation/propagation are separately formulated, but they form a coupled system. Our model combines some features of the landslide analysis model DAN3D and the tsunami analysis model COMCOT and adds a non-hydrostatic pressure correction. We use the new model to simulate a 2007 rock avalanche-generated wave event at Chehalis Lake, British Columbia, Canada. The model results match both the observed distribution of the rock avalanche deposit in the lake and the wave run-up trimline along the shoreline. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the importance of accounting for the non-hydrostatic dynamic pressure at the landslide-water interface, as well as the influence of the internal strength of the landslide on the size of the generated waves. Finally, we compare the numerical results of landslide-generated waves simulated with frictional and Voellmy rheologies. Similar maximum wave run-ups can be obtained using the two different rheologies, but the frictional model better reproduces the known limit of the rock avalanche deposit and is thus considered to yield the best overall results in this particular case.     

A Leaky-Conduit Model of Transient Flow in Karstic Aquifers

Karst Flow Model (KFM) simulates transient flow in an unconfined karstic aquifer having a well-developed conduit system. KFM treats the springshed as a two-dimensional porous matrix containing a triangulated irregular network of leaky conduits. The number and location of conduits can be specified arbitrarily, perhaps using field information as a guide, or generated automatically. Conduit networks can be tree-like or braided. Rainwater that has infiltrated down from the surface leaks into the conduits from the adjacent porous matrix at a rate dictated by Darcy’s law, then flows turbulently to the spring via the conduits. KFM is calibrated using the known steady state; geometry and recharge determine the steady fluxes in the conduits, and the head distribution determines conduit gradients and sizes. Spring flow can vary with time due to spatially and temporally variable recharge and due to prescribed variations in the elevation of the spring. KFM is illustrated by four examples run on a test aquifer consisting of 27 nodes, 42 elements, and 26 conduits. Three examples (drought, uniform rainstorm, storm-water input to one element) are simulations, while the fourth uses data from a spring-basin flooding event. The qualitative fit between the predicted and observed spring discharge in the fourth example provides support of the hypothesis that the dynamic behavior of a karst conduit system is an emergent property of a self-organized system, largely independent of the locations and properties of individual conduits.     

Role of Crystal Interlocking on the Strength of Brittle Rocks

Results of an experimental programme on heterogeneous rock-like specimens of dental plaster confirm the pronounced role of tensile microcracks on brittle failure. Microbuckling of very small rock-columns formed amid closely located tensile cracks was observed as the key incident connecting stable phenomenon of tensile cracking to unstable phenomenon of shearing and subsequent macroscopic failure. Using the classical beam and buckling theories and considering geometry of the problem a new failure criterion is proposed. As a novel attempt, this new failure criterion relates the compressive strength of rock to three basic microstructural properties, i.e. degree of crystal interlocking, average Young modulus and average tensile strength of rock forming minerals.