Do static stress changes of a moderate‐magnitude earthquake significantly modify the regional seismic hazard? Hints from the L'Aquila 2009 normal‐faulting earthquake (Mw 6.3, central Italy)

We investigated the Coulomb stress changes in the active faults surrounding a moderate‐magnitude normal‐faulting earthquake (2009 L'Aquila, Mw 6.3) and the associated variations in the expected ground motion on regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. We show that the static stress variations can locally increase the seismic hazard by modifying the expected mean recurrence time on neighbouring faults by up to ~290 years, with associated variations in the probability of occurrence of the maximum expected earthquake of up to ~2%. Our findings suggest that the increase in seismic hazard on neighbouring faults following moderate‐magnitude earthquakes is probably not sufficient to necessitate systematic upgrades of regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps, but must be considered to better address and schedule strategies for local‐scale mitigation of seismic risk.     

The junction of Fensch and Moselle rivers,France; mineralogy and composition of river materials

The Moselle river flows in the north-east of France, from Vosges Mountains to neighboring countries Luxembourg and Germany. One of its tributaries, the Fensch river, drains a highly industrialized watershed, strongly impacted by mining, smelting and surfacing activities. The objective of this work, part of a general research program on Moselle watershed (Zone Atelier Moselle) was to assess the impact of the polluted Fensch river on the global quality of the Moselle river. For that purpose, water, sediments and suspended particulate matter were sampled in both rivers, upstream and downstream the junction. Four main sampling campaigns were carried out, in winter during a flood event and in spring at low water level. On a first step, mineralogical analyses (XRD and FTIR) and chemical analyses (ICP-MS, ICP-AES), were performed on sediments, suspended particulate matters and filtered waters. Major and trace elements concentrations were obtained on two different granulometric fractions (0–2 mm and 0–50 μm) revealing the enrichment in heavy metals of fine particles. From one collecting campaign to another, seasonal variations could be evidenced on suspended matter composition even though major minerals (calcite, quartz and kaolinite) were always present. Furthermore, spatial variations were evidenced for Fensch and Moselle downstream sediments. Thus, very fine-grained sediments, poorly crystallized, displaying at the same time higher metal concentrations and higher organic matter content than in Fensch river material, were collected downstream, in a low hydrodynamic conditions zone, assumed as a preferential sedimentary zone or even as a placer. Strong correlations could be revealed between iron content and contaminant concentrations, confirming the origin of polluted material.     

Short time-scale impacts of hydropeaking on benthic invertebrates in an Alpine stream (Trentino,Italy)

The impact of a single hydropeaking event was studied in the Alpine stream Noce Bianco. Four stations were selected, one upstream and three, respectively, at 0.25, 6, and 8 km downstream from a hydropower plant. We collected drifting invertebrates during a planned water release that increased the discharge 7-fold. At the onset of the hydropeaking wave the number of invertebrates lost from the riverbed per minute to the drift increased 9-fold at the first downstream station and the same effects propagated 8 km downstream. The drift was composed mainly of aquatic insect larvae (Chironomidae, Plecoptera, Ephemeroptera Baetidae, and Psychodidae, with Chironomidae as the most abundant taxon at all stations) and partly by larval and adult riparian insects, and by Oligochaeta, which were particularly abundant at the station 6 km downstream. We monitored drift for 30 min from the start of the water release: peaks in drifting invertebrates occurred within 5–10 min of the beginning of the hydropeaking wave, and most of the invertebrates were washed out within the first 15 min of the water release. The different timeframes were possibly due to habitat preferences (most of the taxa that increased in the drift at the arrival of the wave were associated with algae and organic debris, which were washed off quickly by the increase in discharge) and/or behavioral adaptations (other taxa initially resisted the shear stress and began to drift with a delay of 5–10 min). The temporal pattern and drift composition corresponded well with those reported in literature, and indicate that repeated high-flow events of similar magnitude cause considerable losses from benthic populations to drift.     

Accounting methods for carbon credits: impacts on the minimum area of forestry projects under the Clean Development Mechanism

Abstract

The Ninth Conference of the Parties (COP-9) decided to adopt an accounting system based on expiring carbon credits to address the problem of non-permanent carbon storage in forests established under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This article reviews and discusses carbon accounting methods that were under consideration before COP-9 and presents a model which calculates the minimum area that forest plantation projects should reach to be able to compensate CDM transaction costs with the revenues from carbon credits. The model compares different accounting methods under various sets of parameters on project management, transaction costs, and carbon prices. Model results show that under current carbon price and average transaction costs, projects with an area of less than 500 ha are excluded from the CDM, whatever accounting method is used. Temporary crediting appears to be the most favorable approach to account for non-permanent carbon removal in forests and also for the feasibility of smaller projects. However, lower prices for credits with finite lifetimes may prevent the establishment of CDM forestry projects. Also, plantation projects with low risk of unexpected carbon loss and sufficient capacity for insuring or buffering the risk of carbon re-emission would benefit from equivalence-adjusted average carbon storage accounting rather than from temporary crediting.     

Elasticity of antigorite,seismic detection of serpentinites,and anisotropy in subduction zones

Serpentinization of the mantle wedge is an important process that influences the seismic and mechanical properties in subduction zones. Seismic detection of serpentines relies on the knowledge of elastic properties of serpentinites, which thus far has not been possible in the absence of single-crystal elastic properties of antigorite. The elastic constants of antigorite, the dominant serpentine at high-pressure in subduction zones, were measured using Brillouin spectroscopy under ambient conditions. In addition, antigorite lattice preferred orientations (LPO) were determined using an electron back-scattering diffraction (EBSD) technique. Isotropic aggregate velocities are significantly lower than those of peridotites to allow seismic detection of serpentinites from tomography. The isotropic V_P/V_S ratio is 1.76 in the Voigt–Reuss–Hill average, not very different from that of 1.73 in peridotite, but may vary between 1.70 and 1.86 between the Voigt and Reuss bonds. Antigorite and deformed serpentinites have a very high seismic anisotropy and remarkably low velocities along particular directions. V_P varies between 8.9 km s^? 1 and 5.6 km s^? 1 (46% anisotropy), and 8.3 km s^? 1 and 5.8 km s^? 1 (37%), and V_S between 5.1 km s^? 1 and 2.5 km s^? 1 (66%), and 4.7 km s^? 1 and 2.9 km s^? 1 (50%) for the single-crystal and aggregate, respectively. The V_P/V_S ratio and shear wave splitting also vary with orientation between 1.2 and 3.4, and 1.3 and 2.8 for the single-crystal and aggregate, respectively. Thus deformed serpentinites can present seismic velocities similar to peridotites for wave propagation parallel to the foliation or lower than crustal rocks for wave propagation perpendicular to the foliation. These properties can be used to detect serpentinite, quantify the amount of serpentinization, and to discuss relationships between seismic anisotropy and deformation in the mantle wedge. Regions of high V_P/V_S ratios and extremely low velocities in the mantle wedge of subduction zones (down to about 6 and 3 km.s^?1 for V_P and V_S, respectively) are difficult to explain without strong preferred orientation of serpentine. Local variations of anisotropy may result from kilometer-scale folding of serpentinites. Shear wave splittings up to 1–1.5 s can be explained with moderately thick (10–20 km) serpentinite bodies.     

Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector

Abstract

The estimation of flood loss is difficult, especially in the commercial sector, because of its great inhomogeneity. However, the reliability of loss modelling is fairly unknown, since flood-loss models are scarcely validated. The newly developed Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was validated on the micro-scale using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. Additionally, different meso-scale loss functions were compared. Meso-scale model application was undertaken in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood in Germany. Model results were compared with the results of three other loss models, as well as with official loss records. The micro-scale validation shows very good results, with no bias and mean absolute errors between 23 and 31%. The meso-scale validation indicates that FLEMOcs provides good results, especially in large areas with many affected companies where high losses are expected.

Citation Seifert, I., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1315–1324.     

A case study of the mesoscale dynamics in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea: a combined data–model approach

The Northern current is the main circulation feature of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea. While the large-scale to mesoscale variability of the northern current (NC) is well known and widely documented for the Ligurian region, off Nice or along the Gulf of Lions shelf, few is known about the current instabilities and its associated mesoscale dynamics in the intermediate area, off Toulon. Here, we took advantage of an oceanographic cruise of opportunity, the start of a HF radar monitoring programme in the Toulon area and the availability of regular satellite sea surface temperature and chlorophyll a data, to evaluate the realism of a NEMO-based regional high-resolution model and the added value brought by HF radar. The combined analysis of a 1/64° configuration, named GLAZUR64, and of all data sets revealed the occurrence of an anticyclonic coastal trapped eddy, generated inside a NC meander and passing the Toulon area during the field campaign. We show that this anticyclonic eddy is advected downstream along the French Riviera up to the study region and disturbs the Northern current flow. This study aims to show the importance of combining observations and modelling when dealing with mesoscale processes, as well as the importance of high-resolution modelling.