Latitudinal variations of CO and OCS in the lower atmosphere of Venus from near-infrared nightside spectro-imaging

Spectro-imaging of Venus' nightside in the 2.3-μm window provides a powerful means of probing the lower atmosphere in the 25-40 km altitude range. We present observations recorded at the NASA/IRTF in February 2003 and August 2004, using the SpeX spectro-imager in the 2.1-2.5-μm region. Abundances of CO and OCS have been derived as a function of latitude for different longitudes. The CO abundance increases by about 15% between the equatorial region and higher latitudes (±40°). No longitudinal or temporal variations are observed. The OCS abundance shows the opposite variation in observational sets with sufficient S/N. These variations and anticorrelation are consistent with upwelling motions in the equatorial region and downwelling at higher latitudes.     

Use of the Geometric Elements in Numerical Simulations

We derive the transformations to convert the state vector in cartesian coordinates into geometric orbital elements (and conversely the geometric elements into the state vector) for a test particle moving around an oblate planet. These transformations arise from the epicyclic theory and are accurate to second order in eccentricity and inclination. This paper is written to be directly used for computational purposes, such as the numerical study of ring dynamics.     

Combining a Detailed Building Energy Model with a Physically-Based Urban Canopy Model

A scheme that couples a detailed building energy model, EnergyPlus, and an urban canopy model, the Town Energy Balance (TEB), is presented. Both models are well accepted and evaluated within their individual scientific communities. The coupled scheme proposes a more realistic representation of buildings and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which allows a broader analysis of the two-way interactions between the energy performance of buildings and the urban climate around the buildings. The scheme can be used to evaluate the building energy models that are being developed within the urban climate community. In this study, the coupled scheme is evaluated using measurements conducted over the dense urban centre of Toulouse, France. The comparison includes electricity and natural gas energy consumption of buildings, building façade temperatures, and urban canyon air temperatures. The coupled scheme is then used to analyze the effect of different building and HVAC system configurations on building energy consumption, waste heat released from HVAC systems, and outdoor air temperatures for the case study of Toulouse. Three different energy efficiency strategies are analyzed: shading devices, economizers, and heat recovery.     

Turnover of Eastern Caribbean deep water from 14C measurements

A¹⁴C balance for the Eastern Caribbean deep water indicates the average inflow of Atlantic water into the basin to be 2.3 × 10⁵ m³/sec (±30%), or about 2–4 times the values estimated previously. The balance uses a model representation of the deep-water turnover, and is based on¹⁴C concentrations at a station in the Venezuelan Basin which average Δ¹⁴C= 89‰ below 800 m depth with a total range of only 9‰, as well as on a¹⁴C concentration of the Atlantic inflow of Δ¹⁴C= ?71%. as obtained from measurements outside the Antilles Arch. The turnover time of the basin water below 2500 m depth is 55 years, which corresponds to an average upwelling velocity at this depth of about 35 m/year. With such upwelling, the temperature profile below 1800 m (the depth of the sill determining the inflow of new water) requires a vertical eddy diffusivity of about 5 cm²/sec. The oxygen consumption, and silica and CO₂ regeneration, rates below 2500 m depth are obtained as ?0.18, + 0.08, and + 0.2 μmole kg^?1 yr^?1, respectively. The CO₂ regeneration has but a negligible effect on the¹⁴C balance.     

Short time-scale impacts of hydropeaking on benthic invertebrates in an Alpine stream (Trentino,Italy)

The impact of a single hydropeaking event was studied in the Alpine stream Noce Bianco. Four stations were selected, one upstream and three, respectively, at 0.25, 6, and 8 km downstream from a hydropower plant. We collected drifting invertebrates during a planned water release that increased the discharge 7-fold. At the onset of the hydropeaking wave the number of invertebrates lost from the riverbed per minute to the drift increased 9-fold at the first downstream station and the same effects propagated 8 km downstream. The drift was composed mainly of aquatic insect larvae (Chironomidae, Plecoptera, Ephemeroptera Baetidae, and Psychodidae, with Chironomidae as the most abundant taxon at all stations) and partly by larval and adult riparian insects, and by Oligochaeta, which were particularly abundant at the station 6 km downstream. We monitored drift for 30 min from the start of the water release: peaks in drifting invertebrates occurred within 5–10 min of the beginning of the hydropeaking wave, and most of the invertebrates were washed out within the first 15 min of the water release. The different timeframes were possibly due to habitat preferences (most of the taxa that increased in the drift at the arrival of the wave were associated with algae and organic debris, which were washed off quickly by the increase in discharge) and/or behavioral adaptations (other taxa initially resisted the shear stress and began to drift with a delay of 5–10 min). The temporal pattern and drift composition corresponded well with those reported in literature, and indicate that repeated high-flow events of similar magnitude cause considerable losses from benthic populations to drift.     

Trends,drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10–15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems.     

Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.     

An Observational Study of the Mesoscale Mistral Dynamics

We investigate the mesoscale dynamics of the mistral through the wind profiler observations of the MAP (autumn 1999) and ESCOMPTE (summer 2001) field campaigns. We show that the mistral wind field can dramatically change on a time scale less than 3 hours. Transitions from a deep to a shallow mistral are often observed at any season when the lower layers are stable. The variability, mainly attributed in summer to the mistral/land–sea breeze interactions on a 10-km scale, is highlighted by observations from the wind profiler network set up during ESCOMPTE. The interpretations of the dynamical mistral structure are performed through comparisons with existing basic theories. The linear theory of R. B. Smith [Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 31, 1989, Academic Press, 1–41] and the shallow water theory [Schär, C. and Smith, R. B.: 1993a, J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 1373–1400] give some complementary explanations for the deep-to-shallow transition especially for the MAP mistral event. The wave breaking process induces a low-level jet (LLJ) downstream of the Alps that degenerates into a mountain wake, which in turn provokes the cessation of the mistral downstream of the Alps. Both theories indicate that the flow splits around the Alps and results in a persistent LLJ at the exit of the Rhône valley. The LLJ is strengthened by the channelling effect of the Rhône valley that is more efficient for north-easterly than northerly upstream winds despite the north–south valley axis. Summer moderate and weak mistral episodes are influenced by land–sea breezes and convection over land that induce a very complex interaction that cannot be accurately described by the previous theories.     

Deformation patterns of upper Quaternary strata and their relation to active tectonics,Po Basin,Italy

Despite increased application of subsurface datasets below the limits of seismic resolution, reconstructing near‐surface deformation of shallow key stratigraphic markers beneath modern alluvial and coastal plains through sediment core analysis has received little attention. Highly resolved stratigraphy of Upper Pleistocene to Holocene (Marine Isotope Stage 5e to Marine Isotope Stage 1) alluvial, deltaic and coastal depositional systems across the southern Po Plain, down to 150 m depth, provides an unambiguous documentation on the deformation of previously flat‐lying strata that goes back in time beyond the limits of morphological, historical and palaeoseismic records. Five prominent key horizons, accurately selected on the basis of their sedimentological characteristics and typified for their fossil content, were used as highly effective stratigraphic markers (M1 to M5) that can be tracked for tens of kilometres across the basin. A facies‐controlled approach tied to a robust chronology (102 radiocarbon dates) reveals considerable deformation of laterally extensive nearshore (M1), continental (M2 and M3) and lagoon (M4 and M5) marker beds originally deposited in a horizontal position (M1, M4 and M5). The areas where antiformal geometries are best observed are remarkably coincident with the axes of buried ramp anticlines, across which new seismic images reveal substantially warped stratal geometries of Lower Pleistocene strata. The striking spatial coincidence of fold crests with the epicentres of historic and instrumental seismicity suggests that deformation of marker beds M1 to M5 might reflect, in part at least, syntectonically generated relief and, thus, active tectonism. Precise identification and lateral tracing of chronologically constrained stratigraphic markers in the ¹⁴C time window through combined sedimentological and palaeoecological data may delineate late Quaternary subsurface stratigraphic architecture at an unprecedented level of detail, outlining cryptic stratal geometries at the sub‐seismic scale. This approach is highly reproducible in tectonically active Quaternary depositional systems and can help to assess patterns of active deformation in the subsurface of modern alluvial and coastal plains worldwide.     

Validation of climate model output using Bayesian statistical methods

The growing interest in and emphasis on high spatial resolution estimates of future climate has demonstrated the need to apply regional climate models (RCMs) to that problem. As a consequence, the need for validation of these models, an assessment of how well an RCM reproduces a known climate, has also grown. Validation is often performed by comparing RCM output to gridded climate datasets and/or station data. The primary disadvantage of using gridded climate datasets is that the spatial resolution is almost always different and generally coarser than climate model output. We have used a Bayesian statistical model derived from observational data to validate RCM output. We used surface air temperature (SAT) data from 109 observational stations in California, all with records of approximately 50 years in length, and created a statistical model based on this data. The statistical model takes into account the elevation of the station, distance from coastline, and the NOAA climate region in which the station resides. Analysis indicates that the statistical model provides reliable estimates of the mean monthly SAT at any given station. In our method, the uncertainty in the estimates produced by the statistical model are directly determined by obtaining probability density functions for predicted SATs. This statistical model is then used to estimate average SATs corresponding to each of the climate model grid cells. These estimates are compared to the output of the RCM to assess how well the RCM matches the observed climate as defined by the statistical model. Overall, the match between the RCM output and the statistical model is good, with some deficiencies likely due in part to the representation of topography in the RCM.