The ultra‐high pressure coronitic and pseudomorphous reactions in a metagranodiorite from the Brossasco‐Isasca Unit,Dora‐Maira Massif,western Italian Alps: a petrographic study and equilibrium thermodynamic modelling

Metagranodiorite samples from the Brossasco‐Isasca Unit, Dora‐Maira Massif, western Alps, show pseudomorphous and coronitic textures where igneous minerals were partially replaced by ultra‐high pressure (UHP) metamorphic assemblages. The original magmatic paragenesis consisted of quartz, plagioclase, K‐feldspar, biotite and minor phases. During UHP metamorphism, the plagioclase (site P) was replaced by zoisite, jadeite, quartz, K‐feldspar and kyanite, and coronitic reactions developed between biotite and adjacent minerals. At the original igneous biotite–quartz contact (site A), a single corona of poorly zoned garnet is developed, whereas at the biotite–K‐feldspar (site B) and biotite–plagioclase (site C) contacts, composite coronas are formed. Integration of results from petrographic observations, calculations of mineral stoichiometry and thermodynamic calculations of mineral stability has allowed the determination of the metamorphic reactions involved and the estimation of the metamorphic conditions, which reached as high as 24 kbar and 650 °C. Accurate microanalysis by energy‐dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) and statistical analysis of the data allowed us to identify, for the first time in a natural Na‐pyroxene of metagranitoid rocks, the end‐member Ca‐Eskola.     

Investigation of insured earthquake damage

The assessment of the loss potential caused by natural perils is a very important task for all insurance companies working in hazard-prone markets. It has to be based on two crucial items: the frequency of events and the investigation of their effects on the insured portfolio.This article deals with the second aspect, i.e. an evaluation of the insured damage caused by two earthquakes, namely those occurring near Albstadt, Germany, on 3 September 1978, and in central Chile on 3 March 1985. The results of the analysis of the earthquake in central Chile enable the mean damage ratio (damage in relation to the value) to be related to the height and the type of construction of the buildings affected. The Albstadt earthquake data permit an illustration of the effects of the type of subsoil on the mean damage ratio. The damage to individual buildings can be described by a lognormal distribution. Possible applications of these results are mentioned.     

A 16-ka δ18O record of lacustrine sugar biomarkers from the High Himalaya reflects Indian Summer Monsoon variability

We investigated a late glacial–Holocene lacustrine sediment archive located at 4,050 m a.s.l. in the small carbonate-free catchment of Lake Panch Pokhari, Helambu Himal, Nepal. A δ¹⁸O sugar biomarker record was established by applying novel compound-specific δ¹⁸O analysis of plant sugar biomarkers (Zech and Glaser in Rapid Commun Mass Spectrom 23:3522–3532, 2009). This method overcomes analytical challenges such as extraction and purification faced by previous methods aimed at using δ¹⁸O of aquatic cellulose as a paleoclimate proxy. The δ¹⁸O results for sugar biomarkers arabinose, xylose and fucose agree well and reveal a pronounced trend towards lower δ¹⁸O values during the deglaciation and the onset of the Bølling/Allerød interstadial. By contrast, the period of the Younger Dryas is characterized by higher δ¹⁸O values. The early Holocene again reveals lower δ¹⁸O values. We suggest that our lacustrine δ¹⁸O record reflects coupled hydrological and thermal control. It is strongly related to changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of paleo-precipitation and resembles the δ¹⁸O records of Asian speleothems. With respect to the ‘amount effect,’ the record is interpreted as reflecting the Indian Summer Monsoon intensity. The precipitation signal is, however, amplified in our record by evaporative ¹⁸O enrichment that is controlled by the ratio of precipitation to evaporation. We suggest that our δ¹⁸O record reflects the variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon, which was strong during the Bølling/Allerød interstadial and early Holocene, but weak during the Younger Dryas stadial. This interpretation is corroborated by a pollen-based index for Lake Panch Pokhari that estimated the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon versus the strength of the Westerlies. Millennial-scale synchronicity with the Greenland δ¹⁸O temperature records highlights the previously suggested strong teleconnections between the Asian Monsoon system and North Atlantic climate variability.     

Impacts of land-use and climate changes on surface runoff in a tropical forest watershed (Brazil)

ABSTRACT

Surface runoff generation capacity can be modified by land-use and climate changes. Annual runoff volumes have been evaluated in a small watershed of tropical forest (Brazil), using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Firstly, the accuracy of SWAT in runoff predictions has been assessed by default input parameters and improved by automatic calibration, using 20-year observations. Then, the hydrological response under land uses (cropland, pasture and deforested soil) alternative to tropical forest and climate change scenarios has been simulated. SWAT application has showed that, if forest was replaced by crops or pasture, the watershed’s hydrological response would not significantly be affected. Conversely, a complete deforestation would slightly increase its runoff generation capacity. Under forecasted climate scenarios, the runoff generation capacity of the watershed will tend to decrease and will not be noticeably different among the representative concentration pathways. Pasture and bare soil will give the lowest and highest runoff coefficients, respectively.     

Systematique U-Pb et Evolution du Gisement d'Uranium de Lodève (France)

Résumé Considérée comme syngénétique ou diagénétique précoce, la minéralisation uranifère de la couche 0 de l'Autunien du bassin de Lodève a été étudiée par la méthode U-Pb sur roches totales. Les données U-Pb démontrent l'existence de perte en radon, principalement dans la chaine de désintégration de ²³⁸U, et l'intérêt de l'utilisation du couple ²⁰⁷Pb-²³⁵U pour la détermination des âges de cristallisation des concentrations uranifères. Pour la couche 0, deux phases de remobilisation de l'uranium et du plomb ont pu être déterminées respectivement à 173±6 Ma et 108±5 Ma. La plus ancienne de ces deux phases est la plus marquée dans les échantillons étudiés, dont les systèmes U-Pb ne montrent pas la mémoire d'une concentration uranifère permienne. La première mobilisation de l'uranium et du plomb s'est faite lors d'une phase de distension à 160–170 Ma, affectant la croûte continentale du Sud du Massif Central. Cette phase a provoqué la circulation de fluides minéralisés et est marquée par une recristallisation des illites des pélites permiennes entre 100 et 200 °C (du fait de l'élévation du gradient géothermique) et par la mise en place d'un volcanisme d'origine mantellique daté à 155±6 Ma. La composition isotopique en plomb d'une galène de l'Autunien du Lodévois, est analogue à celles des feldspaths des granitoïdes du Massif Central français et à celles des galènes des minéralisations stratiformes de Pb-Zn des Causses, ce qui fournit un argument pour faire dériver au moins une partie des métaux en traces dans les pélites autuniennes de l'altération de la croûte continentale hercynienne environnante.

---

In the Lodeve basin, the uraniferous mineralization associated with the autunian pelitic layer 0 is usually considered as syngenetic or early diagenetic. U-Pb isotopic data performed on U bearing whole rocks demonstrate occurrence of radon losses, mainly in the ²³⁸U decay series; the ²⁰⁷Pb-²³⁵U geochronometer is particularly suitable to date U-Pb systems disturbed by such radon losses. For the autunian layer 0, two U-Pb mobilization phases have been respectively recognized at 173±6 Ma and 108±5 Ma. The oldest phase is the most clearly expressed in the studied samples, no memory of a permian age could be recognized in the U-Pb systems. The first U-Pb mobilization occurred 170 Ma ago, during a distension phase of the continental crust. This phase induced circulations of mineralized fluids, illite recristallization in the permian pelites at temperatures ranging from 100 to 200 °C and emplacement of a mantellic volcanism recently dated at 155±6 Ma. A galena from the Autunian of the Lodeve basin, the feldspars of the surrounding variscan granitoïds and galenas of mesozoïc stratiform deposits in the Causses, present similar Pb isotopic composition, which is in agreement with the hypothesis that some metals of the autunian pelites originated in the surrounding weathered variscan continental crust.

     

Impact of model free parameters and sea-level rise uncertainties on 20-years shoreline hindcast: the case of Truc Vert beach (SW France)

Shoreline change is driven by various complex processes interacting at a large range of temporal and spatial scales, making shoreline reconstructions and predictions challenging and uncertain. Despite recent progress in addressing uncertainties related to the physics of sea-level rise, very little effort is made towards understanding and reducing the uncertainties related to wave-driven shoreline response. To fill this gap, the uncertainties associated with the long-term modelling of shoreline change are analysed at a high-energy cross-shore transport dominated site. Using the state-of-the-art LX-Shore shoreline change model, we produce a probabilistic shoreline reconstruction, based on 3000 simulations over the past 20 years at Truc Vert beach, southwest France, whereby sea-level rise rate, depth of closure and three model free parameters are considered uncertain variables. We further address the relative impact of each source of uncertainty on the model results performing a Global Sensitivity Analysis. This analysis shows that the shoreline changes are mainly sensitive to the three parameters of the wave-driven model, but also that the sensitivity to each of these parameters is strongly modulated seasonally and interannually, in relation with wave energy variability, and depends on the time scale of interest. These results have strong implications on the model skill sensitivity to the calibration period as well as for the predictive skill of the model in a context of future climate change affecting wave climate and extremes. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quasi-Saturated Layer: Implications for Estimating Recharge and Groundwater Modeling

This study presents an extension of the concept of “quasi-saturation” to a quasi-saturated layer, defined as the uppermost dynamic portion of the saturated zone subject to water table fluctuations. Entrapped air here may cause substantial reductions in the hydraulic conductivity (K) and fillable pore water. Air entrapment is caused by a rising water table, usually as a result of groundwater recharge. The most significant effects of entrapped air are recharge overestimation based on methods that use specific yield (S_y), such as the water table fluctuation method (WTF), and reductions in K values. These effects impact estimation of fluid flow velocities and contaminant migration rates in groundwater. In order to quantify actual groundwater recharge rates and the effects of entrapped air, numerical simulations with the FEFLOW (Version 7.0) groundwater flow model were carried out using a quasi-saturated layer for a pilot area in Rio Claro, Brazil. The calculated recharge rate represented 16% of the average precipitation over an 8-year period, approximately half of estimates using the WTF method. Air entrapment amounted to a fillable porosity of 0.07, significant lower that the value of 0.17 obtained experimentally for S_y. Numerical results showed that the entrapped air volume in the quasi-saturated layer can be very significant (0.58 of the air fraction) and hence can significantly affect estimates of groundwater recharge and groundwater flow rates near the water table.     

Long-term Regional Dynamic Sea Level Changes from CMIP6 Projections

Anthropogenic climate forcing will cause the global mean sea level to rise over the 21st century.However,regional sea level is expected to vary across ocean basins,superimposed by the influence of natural internal climate variability.Here,we address the detection of dynamic sea level(DSL)changes by combining the perspectives of a single and a multimodel ensemble approach(the 50-member CanESM5 and a 27-model ensemble,respectively,all retrieved from the CMIP6 archive),under three CMIP6 projected scenarios:SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.The ensemble analysis takes into account four key metrics:signal(S),noise(N),S/N ratio,and time of emergence(ToE).The results from both sets of ensembles agree in the fact that regions with higher S/N(associated with smaller uncertainties)also reflect earlier ToEs.The DSL signal is projected to emerge in the Southern Ocean,Southeast Pacific,Northwest Atlantic,and the Arctic.Results common for both sets of ensemble simulations show that while S progressively increases with increased projected emissions,N,in turn,does not vary substantially among the SSPs,suggesting that uncertainty arising from internal climate variability has little dependence on changes in the magnitude of external forcing.Projected changes are greater and quite similar for the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 and considerably smaller for the SSP1-2.6,highlighting the importance of public policies towards lower emission scenarios and of keeping emissions below a certain threshold.     

Defining a model of 3D seismogenic sources for Seismic Hazard Assessment applications: The case of central Apennines (Italy)

Geology-based methods for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) have been developing in Italy. These methods require information on the geometric, kinematic and energetic parameters of the major seismogenic faults. In this paper, we define a model of 3D seismogenic sources in the central Apennines of Italy. Our approach is mainly structural-seismotectonic: we integrate surface geology data (trace of active faults, i.e. 2D features) with seismicity and subsurface geological–geophysical data (3D approach). A fundamental step is to fix constraints on the thickness of the seismogenic layer and deep geometry of faults: we use constraints from the depth distribution of aftershock zones and background seismicity; we also use information on the structural style of the extensional deformation at crustal scale (mainly from seismic reflection data), as well as on the strength and behaviour (brittle versus plastic) of the crust by rheological profiling. Geological observations allow us to define a segmentation model consisting of major fault structures separated by first-order (kilometric scale) structural-geometric complexities considered as likely barriers to the propagation of major earthquake ruptures. Once defined the 3D fault features and the segmentation model, the step onward is the computation of the maximum magnitude of the expected earthquake (M _max). We compare three different estimates of M _max: (1) from association of past earthquakes to faults; (2) from 3D fault geometry and (3) from geometrical estimate corrected by earthquake scaling laws. By integrating all the data, we define a model of seismogenic sources (seismogenic boxes), which can be directly used for regional-scale PSHA. Preliminary applications of PSHA indicate that the 3D approach may allow to hazard scenarios more realistic than those previously proposed.