北祁连东部两类Ⅰ型花岗岩定年及其地质意义

北祁连东部早古生代地层中产出两种特征不同的I型花岗岩类,其一以井子川岩体为代表,暗色矿物以角闪石为主,稀土总量为90×10~(-6)～106×10~(-6),轻重稀土比值小于8,锆石的SHRIMP年龄为464±15Ma,岩体形成的构造环境类似于岛弧;其二是以黄羊河岩体为代表,暗色矿物以黑云母为主,稀土总量为214×10~(-6)～250×10~(-6),轻重稀土比值大于8,锆石的LA-ICP-MS年龄为383±6 Ma,岩体形成于碰撞后环境。     

Policy and global change research

The history of the U.S. Global Change Research Program calls into question its sustainability. The Program was established on the presumption that a prerequisite for rational, comprehensive, and cost-effective policy responses is the reduction of scientific uncertainty through comprehensive predictive models. This presumption remains a significant barrier to the renewal of public support for the Program through near-term progress consistent with its mandate to produce information readily usable by policymakers. This article critiques the use of comprehensive predictive models for policy purposes; proposes one modest alternative to comprehensive predictive models as a means of integrating scientific and non-scientific considerations into recommendations readily usable by policymakers; and places the issue in the broader context of a paradigm shift in U.S. science and technology policy. The purpose is to expedite progress, consistent with the policy mandate, that would help sustain public support for the Program.This is a revision of a paper presented at the Fourteenth Annual Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, Washington, DC, October 30, 1993, and included as testimony submitted for the record of Hearings on the Climate Change Action Plan and Assessment, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives (November 16, 1993), 111–140.     

Credible commitment in carbon policy

In this article the problem of credible commitment in carbon policy is discussed. Investors favour long-term predictability of the policy, but without any external enforcement mechanisms a commitment made by a government can be withdrawn, leading to scepticism and lack of credibility. This results in increased market risks and investment hold-up. Regulatory uncertainty stems from (i) strategic interactions between government and firms, (ii) potential learning about climate damage and abatement cost and (iii) political volatility. Although commitment to future policy encourages private investment, it also imposes costs in the form of reduced flexibility to accommodate new information or preferences. The article reviews devices that may help policy makers raise the level of commitment while also leaving some room for flexible adjustments. In particular, legislation of a long-term governance framework, delegation to an independent carbon agency and securitization of investors' stakes in emission markets offer palliative approaches.     

华北板块南缘的变形分解:洛南-栾川断裂带与秦岭北缘强变形带研究

秦岭洛南-栾川断裂带具有左旋斜向俯冲的运动学特征,其产状一般为107°/N∠65°。华南板块的俯冲方向为80°,俯冲角度为42°;华南板块运动方向为42°,运动方向与华北板块南部边界的夹角为65°,汇聚角25°。秦岭北缘强变形带内褶皱枢纽延伸方向为290°,与洛南-栾川断裂带存在15°的夹角。逆冲断层走向与褶皱的枢纽方向基本一致,大多数断层与洛南-栾川断裂带有相同的运动学极性,性质为左行平移逆断层。平移正断层走向主要为NE SW,断层性质、展布方向、运动学特征与板块汇聚的应力作用方式吻合;片理、片麻理走向117°,与洛南-栾川断裂带走向夹角为10°。在垂直剪切带的剖面上,系统观察岩石变形特征,测量面理产状,进行岩石有限应变测量,岩石非共轴递进变形分析结果表明:秦岭北缘强变形带内由南向北面理走向与剪切带走向的夹角逐渐增大,岩石剪应变量依次递减,造山带变形具有“三斜对称”特点。     

Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with larger economic value for the state (apples, potatoes, and wheat). To evaluate crop performance, a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) was utilized using historical and future climate sequences. Crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops), nutrients, and control of weeds, pests and diseases. Results project that the impact of climate change on eastern Washington agriculture will be generally mild in the short term (i.e., next two decades), but increasingly detrimental with time (potential yield losses reaching 25% for some crops by the end of the century). However, CO₂ elevation is expected to provide significant mitigation, and in fact result in yield gains for some crops. The combination of increased CO₂ and adaptive management may result in yield benefits for all crops. One limitation of the study is that water supply was assumed sufficient for irrigated crops, but other studies suggest that it may decrease in many locations due to climate change.     

CLASSIFICATION:OLDTIMERS AND NEWCOMERS

Classification and regression techniques are among the most used tools by chemometricians.Withclassification,the two classic methods are discriminant analysis and SIMCA.In this paper we discuss theconnection between these two methods and introduce two new ones of the same family:DASCO(discriminantanalysis with shrunken covariances)and RDA(regularized discriminant analysis).We demonstrate on bothsimulated and real data sets that their performance is superior to the old favorites.This is especially truein small-sample/high-dimension settings typical in chemistry.     

应用烃类流体包裹体GOI和成分研究凝析气藏成藏过程：以准噶尔盆地莫索湾地区为例

The Grains containing Oil Inclusions （GOI） data in currently gas/condensate-beating Jurassic and Cretaceous reservoir sandstones of Well Pen 5 （the Mosuowan area of central Junggar Basin, NW China） are generally greater than the empirical threshold line of 5%. This is consistent with the gas-condensate section originally containing a palaeo-oil column. In order to assess the origin of the oil trapped in the oil inclusion and its relationship to the free oil/gas-condensate, a detailed molecular geochemical study was carried out for correlation between the free and inclusion oils. The paleo oil is most likely sourced from the Lower Permian Fengcheng Formation, which generated hydrocarbons primarily during Late Triassic and the oils were later secondarily altered and dysmigrated along faults likely during Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous. In contrast, the current reservoired oil/gas-condensate mainly derived from the Middle Permian Lower Wuerhe Formation, whose peak generation time last from Late Cretaceous even to the present. This paper showed that integrated oil-bearing fluid inclusion analyses have likely allowed a complex multi-phase charge history to be recognized and resolved with a high degree of confidence.     

The 2dF-SDSS LRG and QSO Survey: the spectroscopic QSO catalogue

We present the final spectroscopic QSO catalogue from the 2dF-SDSS LRG (luminous red galaxy) and QSO (2SLAQ) survey. This is a deep,  18 < g < 21.85  (extinction corrected), sample aimed at probing in detail the faint end of the broad line active galactic nuclei luminosity distribution at   z ≲ 2.6  . The candidate QSOs were selected from SDSS photometry and observed spectroscopically with the 2dF spectrograph on the Anglo-Australian Telescope. This sample covers an area of 191.9 deg² and contains new spectra of 16 326 objects, of which 8764 are QSOs and 7623 are newly discovered [the remainder were previously identified by the 2dF QSO Redshift Survey (2QZ) and SDSS]. The full QSO sample (including objects previously observed in the SDSS and 2QZ surveys) contains 12 702 QSOs. The new 2SLAQ spectroscopic data set also contains 2343 Galactic stars, including 362 white dwarfs, and 2924 narrow emission-line galaxies with a median redshift of   z = 0.22  .
We present detailed completeness estimates for the survey, based on modelling of QSO colours, including host-galaxy contributions. This calculation shows that at   g ≃ 21.85  QSO colours are significantly affected by the presence of a host galaxy up to redshift   z ∼ 1  in the SDSS ugriz bands. In particular, we see a significant reddening of the objects in   g − i   towards the fainter g -band magnitudes. This reddening is consistent with the QSO host galaxies being dominated by a stellar population of age at least 2–3 Gyr.
The full catalogue, including completeness estimates, is available on-line at http://www.2slaq.info/ .     

Scale-dependent physical and geoacoustic property variability of shallow-water carbonate sediments from the Dry Tortugas, Florida

 Spatial variability of shallow-water carbonate sediments near Dry Tortugas, Florida, is scale-dependent. Wet bulk density, grain density, porosity, compressional wave velocity, and grain size variability generally increase down to 2.4 m vertically and 850 m laterally. Grain size is most variable, followed by porosity, wet bulk density, compressional wave velocity, and grain density bothvertically and laterally, consistent with Walther’s Law. Variability was empirically modeled by linear regression analysis to predict variability based on scale, characterize sediment property variability, and quantify sedimentisotropy.