Zircon saturation revisited: temperature and composition effects in a variety of crustal magma types

Hydrothermal experiments in the temperature range 750–1020°C have defined the saturation behavior of zircon in crustal anatectic melts as a function of both temperature and composition. The results provide a model of zircon solubility given by: In D_Zr^zircon/melt= ?3.80?[0.85(M?1)]+12900/T where D_Zr^zircon/melt is the concentration ratio of Zr in the stoichiometric zircon to that in the melt, T is the absolute temperature, and M is the cation ratio (Na + K + 2Ca)/(Al · Si). This solubility model is based principally upon experiments at 860°, 930°, and 1020°C, but has also been confirmed at temperatures up to 1500°C for M = 1.3. The lowest temperature experiments (750° and 800°C) yielded relatively imprecise, low solubilities, but the measured values (with assigned errors) are nevertheless in agreement with the predictions of the model.For M = 1.3 (a normal peraluminous granite), these results predict zircon solubilities ranging from ～ 100 ppm dissolved Zr at 750°C to 1330 ppm at 1020°C. Thus, in view of the substantial range of bulk Zr concentrations observed in crustal granitoids (～ 50–350 ppm), it is clear that anatectic magmas can show contrasting behavior toward zircon in the source rock. Those melts containing insufficient Zr for saturation in zircon during melting can have achieved that condition only by consuming all zircon in the source. On the other hand, melts with higher Zr contents (appropriate to saturation in zircon) must be regarded as incapable of dissolving additional zircon, whether it be located in the residual rocks or as crystals entrained in the departing melt fraction. This latter possibility is particularly interesting, inasmuch as the inability of a melt to consume zircon means that critical geochemical “indicators” contained in the undissolved zircon (e.g. heavy rare earths, Hf, U, Th, and radiogenic Pb) can equilibrate with the contacting melt only by solid-state diffusion, which may be slow relative to the time scale of the melting event.     

Climate and prehistory on the Yucatan peninsula

Long held notions that climate has been stable over the Yucatan peninsula and that today's climate is an accurate reflection of past climates here are being challenged today by a number of researchers. Both empirical and circumstantial evidence are offered for a prolonged and severe period of dessication in the Maya lowlands and its effects on soils, vegetation, lake levels and ancient Maya cultural processes, ca. 50 B.C. to 500 A.D. After centuries of steady and precocious growth and development, Late Preclassic Maya civilization in the drier northern two thirds of the peninsula abruptly collapsed, probably due to repeated crop failures and decreasing availabilities of potable water due to severe drought conditions. This is nowhere more apparent than at the predominantly Preclassic ruins of El Mirador - the largest known ancient Maya city - which was almost totally abandoned by A.D. 250. Thereafter, the development of classicism was confined to a small and better watered area in extreme northeastern Guatemala, northern Belize and southern Quintana Roo, which was defended from invaders from the north by a line of fortified sites.     

On melting of the subducted oceanic crust: Effects of subduction induced mantle flow

Based on petrological and geochemical arguments, it is possible that arc magma is derived from subducted oceanic crust. In this paper, regional thermal models have been constructed to study the feasibility of melting cold subducted oceanic crusts at shallow depth (i.e. at depths of about 100 km) by a dynamic mantle. Calculated results suggest that plate subduction will generate an induced flow in the wedge above the subducting slab. This current continuously feeds hot mantle material into the corner and onto the slab surface. A high temperature thermal environment can be maintained in the vicinity of the wedge corner, immediately beneath the over-riding plate. Our regional models further demonstrate quantitatively that production of local melting is possible just about 30 km down dip from the asthenosphere wedge corner. Additional geological processes such as reasonable amounts of shear heating and minor dehydration (which will lower the local melting temperature) will further increase the probability of melting a cold subducted oceanic crust at shallow depth.     

T-XCO2 stability relations and phase equilibria of a calcic carbonate scapolite

At a total pressure of 5 kb, calcic, Cl-free scapolite (Me₈₃) is stable relative to plagioclase-bearing assemblages at $\text{T ≧ 625°C}$, . With decreasing temperature, scapolite breaks down to plagioclase + calcite. Scapolite is replaced by plagioclase + grossular + cancrinite + CO₂ in the presence of H₂O-rich fluids. The stable coexistence of scapolite and calcite, an assemblage typical of most natural occurrences of calcic scapolite, is limited by the reaction: scapolite + calcite → grossular + cancrinite + CO₂, which occurs at 750°C, X_CO2 = 0.46; 700°C, X_CO2 = 0.33; 650°C, X_CO2 = 0.18, for the chosen bulk composition.Generalization of the experimental results to encompass the complete range of fully carbonated scapolite compositions indicates that mizzonite (Me₇₅) has the largest T-X_CO2 stability field. For scapolite more calcic than mizzonite, stable growth is restricted to conditions of increasingly higher temperature and X_CO2.The experimental results are consistent with various petrologic features of scapolite-bearing rocks, particularly scapolite-clinopyroxene granulites, and indicate that such rocks were formed in the presence of CO₂-rich fluids.     

An Investigation of the Relationship between Pesticide Usage and Climate Change

One concern of agriculturalists when regarding climate change involves the effects on pest populations. Climate change may allow pest migration or population expansions which may adversely affect agricultural productivity, profitability and possibly even viability. We examine the effect of current climate variations on the average and variability of U.S. per acre pesticide costs across the U.S. as a proxy for investigating the consequence for pest populations. Empirically, we find that increases in rainfall increases average per acre pesticide usage costs for corn, cotton, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat while hotter weather increases pesticide costs for corn, cotton, potatoes, and soybeans but decreases the cost for wheat. We also investigated the influence of climate on the variability of pesticide costs. There we find that hotter temperatures increase pesticide cost variance for corn, potatoes, and wheat while decreasing it for soybeans. Rainfall increases cause an increase in cost variability for cotton while decreasing it for corn, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat.     

中尺度流域土地利用/土地覆盖变化评估--以伊洛河中部地区为例

将规范分析与实证分析相结合，提出了一个评估区域各点位土地利用／土地覆盖变化的新方法：（1）采用相对原则观察一时段内的变化方向；（2）物理模型与统计模型相结合，基于区域实际情况建立生境适宜性参照基准；（3）用多变量分析方法量度各点位与参照基准的差异。结合GIS和遥感技术，这种方法被应用于伊洛河中部地区的研究中。     

The long-term salinity field in San Francisco Bay

Data are presented on long-term salinity behaviour in San Francisco Bay, California. A two-level, width averaged model of the tidally averaged salinity and circulation has been written in order to interpret the long-term (days to decades) salinity variability. The model has been used to simulate daily averaged salinity in the upper and lower levels of a 51 segment discretization of the Bay over the 22-yr period 1967–1988. Monthly averaged surface salinity from observations and monthly-averaged simulated salinity are in reasonable agreement. Good agreement is obtained from comparison with daily averaged salinity measured in the upper reaches of North Bay.The salinity variability is driven primarily by freshwater inflow with relatively minor oceanic influence. All stations exhibit a marked seasonal cycle in accordance with the Mediterranean climate, as well as a rich spectrum of variability due to extreme inflow events and extended periods of drought. Monthly averaged salinity intrusion positions have a pronounced seasonal variability and show an approximately linear response to the logarithm of monthly averaged Delta inflow. Although few observed data are available for studies of long-term salinity stratification, modelled stratification is found to be strongly dependent on freshwater inflow; the nature of that dependence varies throughout the Bay. Near the Golden Gate, stratification tends to increase up to very high inflows. In the central reaches of North Bay, modelled stratification maximizes as a function of inflow and further inflow reduces stratification. Near the head of North Bay, lowest summer inflows are associated with the greatest modelled stratification. Observations from the central reaches of North Bay show marked spring-neap variations in stratification and gravitational circulation, both being stronger at neap tides. This spring-neap variation is simulated by the model. A feature of the modelled stratification is a hysteresis in which, for a given spring-neap tidal range and fairly steady inflows, the stratification is higher progressing from neaps to springs than from springs to neaps.The simulated responses of the Bay to perturbations in coastal sea salinity and Delta inflow have been used to further delineate the time-scales of salinity variability. Simulations have been performed about low inflow, steady-state conditions for both salinity and Delta inflow perturbations. For salinity perturbations a small, sinusoidal salinity signal with a period of 1 yr has been applied at the coastal boundary as well as a pulse of salinity with a duration of one day. For Delta inflow perturbations a small, sinusoidally varying inflow signal with a period of 1 yr has been superimposed on an otherwise constant Delta inflow, as well as a pulse of inflow with a duration of one day. Perturbations in coastal salinity dissipate as they move through the Bay. Seasonal perturbations require about 40–45 days to propagate from the coastal ocean to the Delta and to the head of South Bay. The response times of the model to perturbations in freshwater inflow are faster than this in North Bay and comparable in South Bay. In North Bay, time-scales are consistent with advection due to lower level, up-estuary transport of coastal salinity perturbations; for inflow perturbations, faster response times arise from both upper level, down-estuary advection and much faster, down-estuary migration of isohalines in response to inflow volume continuity. In South Bay, the dominant time-scales are governed by tidal dispersion.     

Global climatic change,hurricanes, and a tropical forest

Most, if not all forests in the Caribbean are subject to occasional disturbances from hurricanes. If current general circulation model (GCM) predictions are correct, with doubled atmospheric CO₂ (2 × CO₂), the tropical Atlantic will be between 1 °C and 4 °C warmer than it is today. With such a warming, more than twice as many hurricanes per year could be expected in the Caribbean. Furthermore, Emanuael (1987) indicates that in a warmed world the destructive potential of Atlantic hurricanes could be increased by 40% to 60%. While speculative, these increases would dramatically change the disturbance regimes affecting tropical forests in the region and might alter forest structure and composition. Global warming impacts through increased hurricane damage on Caribbean forests are presented.An individual tree, gap dynamics forest ecosystem model was used to simulate the range of possible hurricane disturbance regimes which could affect the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Model storm frequency ranged from no storms at all up to one storm per year; model storm intensity varied from no damage up to 100% mortality of trees. The model does not consider the effects of changing temperature and rainfall patterns on the forest. Simulation results indicate that with the different hurricane regimes a range of forest types are possible, ranging from mature forest with large trees, to an area in which forest trees are never allowed to reach maturity.     

Site-dependent models of earthquake ground motion

Random vibration analyses of structural systems subjected to seismic loading are dependent upon the characterization of earthquake ground motion as a stochastic process. The response of structural systems to earthquakes is dependent strongly on the local geological conditions, which should be incorporated into seismological models of ground motion. In the study presented herein, three previously developed ground-motion models are adapted to incorporate site-dependent characteristics. Records obtained from two recording stations in California are used as a basis for the ground-motion models. Single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillators are subjected to ensembles of accelerograms generated from these models, and both elastic and inelastic response are considered. Response statistics are compared to those generated by the analysis of structural response to ensembles of recorded motion from the two sites. The important features of the ground motion for effective reproduction of response statistics are identified, and observations are made on the sensitivity of specific response parameters to site-dependent characteristics of the ground motion.