Relationships between typhoons,climate and crime rates in Taiwan

The literature indicates climate change is likely to cause more frequent and intense extreme weather events along with higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Taiwan frequently suffers from extremes in the form of typhoons, and their effects threaten both social stability and public security. Temperature effects through climate change are also expected to alter crime rates. We examine the immediate and longer-run impacts of typhoons and other climate variables on crime rates in Taiwan. The immediate results suggest that typhoon intensity has a significantly negative influence on rates of crime, including all violent crimes and automobile thefts. They also show that warmer temperatures have a strong positive effect on all violent crimes and all the subtypes of violent crimes. In addition, longer duration typhoons increase the immediate rates of all violent crimes, automobile thefts and muggings while decreasing the rate of burglaries. In the long run, we find that typhoon intensity, duration and landfall have persistent, lagged effects on crime that vary from negative to positive. For example, strong-intensity typhoons have significantly negative lagged effects on crimes 3–5 months in the future but positive lagged effects on crimes in future months 6–9. Finally, projections under the IPCC climate change scenarios show all violent crimes will increase.     

On melting of the subducted oceanic crust: Effects of subduction induced mantle flow

Based on petrological and geochemical arguments, it is possible that arc magma is derived from subducted oceanic crust. In this paper, regional thermal models have been constructed to study the feasibility of melting cold subducted oceanic crusts at shallow depth (i.e. at depths of about 100 km) by a dynamic mantle. Calculated results suggest that plate subduction will generate an induced flow in the wedge above the subducting slab. This current continuously feeds hot mantle material into the corner and onto the slab surface. A high temperature thermal environment can be maintained in the vicinity of the wedge corner, immediately beneath the over-riding plate. Our regional models further demonstrate quantitatively that production of local melting is possible just about 30 km down dip from the asthenosphere wedge corner. Additional geological processes such as reasonable amounts of shear heating and minor dehydration (which will lower the local melting temperature) will further increase the probability of melting a cold subducted oceanic crust at shallow depth.     

Genetic structure of bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli) populations in Chesapeake Bay

To determine the genetic structure of the bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli) within Chesapeake Bay, 16 isozyme systems encoding 21 loci for 20 population were examined using horizontal starch gel electrophoresis. Contingency Chisquare analysis revealed significant allelic frequency differences at nine loci (AAT-1, AAT-2, ALD-1, CPK-2, GAP-1, GLY-1, LDH-1, MDH-1, and MDH-2). Two loci, ALD-1 and MDH-1, were responsible for nine of 14 tests not conforming to Hardy-Weinberg expectations, with some of these deviations attributed to possible scoring and/or sampling error. Estimates for mean average heterozygosity were relatively high, ranging from 0.40 to 0.096, with 33–57% of the loci polymorphic. A low F_st value (0.041) along with high genetic identity estimates (I=0.997) indicated little substructuring of bay anchovy populations within Chesapeake Bay.     

Stochastic groundwater modeling of a sedimentary aquifer: evaluation of the impacts of abstraction scenarios under conditions of reduced recharge

A transient finite difference groundwater flow model has been calibrated for the Nasia sub-catchment of the White Volta Basin. This model has been validated through a stochastic parameter randomization process and used to evaluate the impacts of groundwater abstraction scenarios on resource sustainability in the basin. A total of 1500 equally likely model realizations of the same terrain based on 1500 equally likely combinations of the data of the key aquifer input parameters were calibrated and used for the scenario analysis. This was done to evaluate model non-uniqueness arising from uncertainties in the key aquifer parameters especially hydraulic conductivity and recharge by comparing the realizations and statistically determining the degree to which they differ from each other. Parameter standard deviations, computed from the calibrated data of the key parameters of hydraulic conductivity and recharge, were used as a yardstick for evaluating model non-uniqueness. All model realizations suggest horizontal hydraulic conductivity estimates in the range of 0.03–78.4 m/day, although over 70 % of the area has values in the range of 0.03–14 m/day. Low standard deviations of the horizontal hydraulic conductivity estimates from the 1500 solutions suggest that this range adequately reflects the properties of the material in the terrain. Lateral groundwater inflows and outflows appear to constitute significant components of the groundwater budgets in the terrain, although estimated direct vertical recharge from precipitation amounts to about 7 % of annual precipitation. High potential for groundwater development has been suggested in the simulations, corroborating earlier estimates of groundwater recharge. Simulation of groundwater abstraction scenarios suggests that the domain can sustain abstraction rates of up to 200 % of the current estimated abstraction rates of 12,960 m³/day under the current recharge rates. Decreasing groundwater recharge by 10 % over a 20-year period will not significantly alter the results of this abstraction scenario. However, increasing abstraction rates by 300 % over the period with decreasing recharge by 10 % will lead to drastic drawdowns in the hydraulic head over the entire terrain by up to 6 m and could cause reversals of flow in most parts of the terrain.     

Freshwater reserves of mid-atlantic coast barrier Islands

A multiple regression model was constructed for the purpose of predicting barrier island hydrology from easily measureable island characteristics. The model was developed using data obtained from 17 sites on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The accuracy of the model for predicting key hydrologic variables was evaluated by statistical and graphic procedures. In general, agreement between observed and predicted values of the hydrologic variables was very good, suggesting that the quantity of potable water at various island sites can be estimated without resorting to extensive field investigations. The model was then applied to Assateague Island, a barrier island located off the coasts of Maryland and Virginia. Results indicate that the original model developed for the Outer Banks may be applied to other barrier islands but that errors involved may necessitate corrections in detailed studies. Correction for bias in predictions for Assateague was shown to be possible with limited field data from surface resistivity surveys.     

Petrogenesis of Archaean ultrabasic and basic volcanics: Evidence from rare earth elements

Rare earth element (REE) and major element data are presented on 44 Archaean samples which include spinifex textured ultramagnesian lavas (STPK) spinifex textured basalts (STB) and low MgO tholeiites. The samples come from the Yilgarn and Pilbara Blocks (W. Australia), Barberton (South Africa), Belingwe and Que Que (Rhodesia), Abitibi (Canada) and the 3.7 b.y. Isua Belt of Western Greenland. In addition REE data are given on three near primitive mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) and a glassy MORB-type basalt from Taiwan. We suggest that REE patterns, particularly the light REE and Eu, can be affected by metamorphism, but argue that the consistency of pattern from samples both within and between areas enables recognition of primary patterns. La/Sm ratios of 2.7 b.y. STPK are characterised by being lower than those of associated basalts. The 3.5 b.y. STPK Barberton material does not show this feature but instead displays significant heavy REE depletion. The separation of garnet from these liquids is suggested as a possible mechanism for the high CaO/Al₂O₃ ratios, (Al loss) and the heavy REE and Sc depletion. The REE data on Barberton material is equivocal on the derivation of the so-called basaltic komatiites from the peridotitic komatiites. However, REE analyses on STPK and high magnesian lavas from elsewhere suggests that crystal fractionation is not a viable mechanism to produce one from the other. We suggest instead, that varying amounts of partial melting of different sources is responsible for the spectrum of compositions. The STB appear to be an easily recognised rock type within the Archaean. They are characterised by quench (clinopyroxene) textures and a light REE enriched pattern. It is suggested that these are near primary melts and that their REE patterns mirror their mantle source. We propose a two stage model for the 2.7 b.y. mafic complexes, in which, prior to the generation of ultrabasic magmas, the source underwent a small amount of partial melting which resulted in the removal of a melt enriched in incompatible elements. The depletion process could be achieved either during mantle diapirism or by upward migration of interstitial melts into an Archaean low velocity zone. The spread of La/Sm ratios in STPK and STB is used as an argument that the Archaean mantle was chemically heterogeneous and that the degree of heterogeneity was similar to that observed in modern ocean volcanics. As a result, partial melting of the mantle under different P-T conditions produced a spectrum of magma types. The information presently available on Archaean mafic and silicic magmatism and the incompleteness of geochemical data on present day tectonic environments are two major obstacles in formulating Archaean tectonic models. In addition a comparison of present day and Archaean ultramafic and silicic rocks suggests that plate tectonic models as presently understood may not be suitable analogues for all Archaean tectonic environments.     

Direct counts of bacteria in the sediments of a North Carolina salt marsh

The number of bacteria in sediments of a North Carolina salt marsh was determined by direct counts with epifluorescent illumination and acridine orange stain. Cell number decreased from 8.36–10.90×10⁹ cells/cm³ of sediment at the surface to 2.19–2.58×10⁹ cells/cm³ of sediment at a depth of 20 cm. No significant difference was found among four stations located on a transect which crossed the marsh and spanned subtidal to intertidal sediments.