Pteropods in Southern Ocean ecosystems

To date, little research has been carried out on pelagic gastropod molluscs (pteropods) in Southern Ocean ecosystems. However, recent predictions are that, due to acidification resulting from a business as usual approach to CO₂ emissions (IS92a), Southern Ocean surface waters may begin to become uninhabitable for aragonite shelled thecosome pteropods by 2050. To gain insight into the potential impact that this would have on Southern Ocean ecosystems, we have here synthesized available data on pteropod distributions and densities, assessed current knowledge of pteropod ecology, and highlighted knowledge gaps and directions for future research on this zooplankton group.Six species of pteropod are typical of the Southern Ocean south of the Sub-Tropical Convergence, including the four Thecosomes Limacina helicina antarctica, Limacina retroversa australis, Clio pyramidata, and Clio piatkowskii, and two Gymnosomes Clione limacina antarctica and Spongiobranchaea australis. Limacina retroversa australis dominated pteropod densities north of the Polar Front (PF), averaging 60 ind m⁻³ (max = 800 ind m⁻³) and 11% of total zooplankton at the Prince Edward Islands. South of the PF L. helicina antarctica predominated, averaging 165 ind m⁻³ (max = 2681 ind m⁻³) and up to >35% of total zooplankton at South Georgia, and up to 1397 ind m⁻³ and 63% of total zooplankton in the Ross Sea. Combined pteropods contributed <5% to total zooplankton in the Lazarev Sea, but 15% (max = 93%) to macrozooplankton in the East Antarctic. In addition to regional density distributions we have synthesized data on vertical distributions, seasonal cycles, and inter-annual density variation.Trophically, gymnosome are specialist predators on thecosomes, while thecosomes are considered predominantly herbivorous, capturing food with a mucous web. The ingestion rates of L. retroversa australis are in the upper range for sub-Antarctic mesozooplankton (31.2-4196.9 ng pig ind⁻¹ d⁻¹), while those of L. helicina antarctica and C. pyramidata are in the upper range for all Southern Ocean zooplankton, in the latter species reaching 27,757 ng pig ind⁻¹ d⁻¹ and >40% of community grazing impact. Further research is required to quantify diet selectivity, the effect of phytoplankton composition on growth and reproductive success, and the role of carnivory in thecosomes.Life histories are a significant knowledge gap for Southern Ocean pteropods, a single study having been completed for L. retroversa australis, making population studies a priority for this group. Pteropods appear to be important in biogeochemical cycling, thecosome shells contributing >50% to carbonate flux in the deep ocean south of the PF. Pteropods may also contribute significantly to organic carbon flux through the production of fast sinking faecal pellets and mucous flocs, and rapid sinking of dead animals ballasted by their aragonite shells. Quantification of these contributions requires data on mucous web production rates, egestion rates, assimilation efficiencies, metabolic rates, and faecal pellet morphology for application to sediment trap studies.Based on the available data, pteropods are regionally significant components of the Southern Ocean pelagic ecosystem. However, there is an urgent need for focused research on this group in order to quantify how a decline in pteropod densities may impact on Southern Ocean ecosystems.     

Martian glaciation and the flow of solid CO2

The flow law determined experimentally for solid CO₂ establishes that a hypothesis of glacial flow of CO₂ at the Martian poles is not physically unrealistic. Compression experiments carried out under 1 atm pressure and constant strain rate demonstrate that the strength of CO₂ near its sublimation point is considerably less than the strength of water ice near its melting point. The data fit a power law “creep” equation of the form

$\text{?}\text{?}\text{= (4 × 10}{}^6\text{) σ}{}^{3.9}\text{exp}\text{(}\text{?12 200}\text{RT}\text{)}$

, where ? is compressive strain rate (sec^?1), σ is compressive stress (bars), R is the gas constant in calories per mole, and T is absolute temperature. The exponent of σ of 3.9 contrasts with a value near 3.1 for water ice, and indicates that the strain rate is somewhat more sensitive to stress for CO₂ than for water. Likewise, the low activation energy for creep, 12 200 cal mole^?1, illustrates that CO₂ is not highly sensitive to temperature and is thus likely to flow over a broad range of temperatures below its melting point. Strength values for CO₂ are of the order of one-tenth to one-third the strength of ice under equivalent conditions.A plausible glacial model for the Martian polar caps can be constructed and is helpful in explaining the unique character of the polar regions. CO₂-rich layers deposited near the pole would have flowed outward laterally to relieve high internal shear stresses. The topography of the polar caps, the uniform layering of the layered deposits, and the general extent of the polar “sediments” could all be explained using this model. Flow of CO₂ rather than water ice greatly reduces the problems with Martian glaciation. Nevertheless, problems do remain, in particular the large amounts of CO₂ necessary, the need to increase vapor pressure and temperature with depth in the polar deposits, and the lack of good observational evidence of flor features. Within the limits of the present knowledge of surface conditions of Mars, CO₂ glaciation appears to be a realistic alternate working hypothesis for the origin of the polar features.     

Measurement of water particle velocities in waves

Water surface profiles and horizontal and vertical water particle velocity components have been measured to investigate the properties of intermediate depth waves generated in the laboratory. The data has been compared with linear wave theory. It was found that linear theory predicted the attenuation of velocity field with depth successfully and that it overestimates both components of velocity slightly.     

Soil water dynamics under different forest vegetation cover: Implications for hillslope stability

Though it is well known that vegetation affects the water balance of soils through canopy interception and evapotranspiration, its hydrological contribution to soil hydrology and stability is yet to be fully quantified. To improve understanding of this hydrological process, soil water dynamics have been monitored at three adjacent hillslopes with different vegetation covers (deciduous tree cover, coniferous tree cover, and grass cover), for nine months from December 2014 to September 2015. The monitored soil moisture values were translated into soil matric suction (SMS) values to facilitate the analysis of hillslope stability. Our observations showed significant seasonal variations in SMS for each vegetation cover condition. However, a significant difference between different vegetation covers was only evident during the winter season where the mean SMS under coniferous tree cover (83.6 kPa) was significantly greater than that under grass cover (41 kPa). The hydrological reinforcing contribution due to matric suction was highest for the hillslope with coniferous tree cover, while the hillslope with deciduous tree cover was second and the hillslope with grass cover was third. The greatest contributions for all cover types were during the summer season. During the winter season, the wettest period of the monitoring study, the additional hydrological reinforcing contributions provided by the deciduous tree cover (1.5 to 6.5 kPa) or the grass cover (0.9 to 5.4 kPa) were insufficient to avoid potential slope failure conditions. However, the additional hydrological reinforcing contribution from the coniferous tree cover (5.8 to 10.4 kPa) was sufficient to provide potentially stable hillslope conditions during the winter season. Our study clearly suggests that during the winter season the hydrological effects from both deciduous tree and grass covers are insufficient to promote slope stability, while the hydrological reinforcing effects from the coniferous tree cover are sufficient even during the winter season. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Large-eddy simulations of convection-driven dynamos using a dynamic scale-similarity model

Dynamo simulations require sub-grid scale (SGS) models for the momentum and heat flux, the Lorentz force, and the magnetic induction. Previous large eddy simulations (LES) using the scale similarity model have represented many aspects of the SGS motion. However, discrepancies are observed due to interchanging the order of filtering operation and spatial differentiation. In this study, we implement a correction term for this commutation error specifically for the scale-similarity model. Furthermore, we implement a dynamic scheme to evaluate time-dependent coefficients for the SGS models. We perform dynamo simulations in a rotating plane layer with different spatial resolutions, and compare results for the time dependence of the large-scale magnetic field. Simulations are performed at two different Rayleigh numbers, using constant values for the other dimensionless numbers (Ekman, Prandtl, and magnetic Prandtl numbers). Both cases show that the dynamic LES can accurately represent the large-scale magnetic field, whereas the dynamo failed in the direct simulations without the SGS terms at the same spatial resolutions. We conclude that the dynamic versions of the SGS and commutation error correction are essential for successful dynamos on coarser grids.     

Community preparedness for lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes,Kona, Hawai‘i

Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Huallai volcanoes are a major volcanic hazard that could impact the western portion of the island of Hawaii (e.g., Kona). The most recent eruptions of these two volcanoes to affect Kona occurred in a.d. 1950 and ca. 1800, respectively. In contrast, in eastern Hawaii, eruptions of neighboring Klauea volcano have occurred frequently since 1955, and therefore have been the focus for hazard mitigation. Official preparedness and response measures are therefore modeled on typical eruptions of Klauea.The combinations of short-lived precursory activity (e.g., volcanic tremor) at Mauna Loa, the potential for fast-moving lava flows, and the proximity of Kona communities to potential vents represent significant emergency management concerns in Kona. Less is known about past eruptions of Huallai, but similar concerns exist. Future lava flows present an increased threat to personal safety because of the short times that may be available for responding.Mitigation must address not only the specific characteristics of volcanic hazards in Kona, but also the manner in which the hazards relate to the communities likely to be affected. This paper describes the first steps in developing effective mitigation plans: measuring the current state of peoples knowledge of eruption parameters and the implications for their safety. We present results of a questionnaire survey administered to 462 high school students and adults in Kona. The rationale for this study was the long lapsed time since the last Kona eruption, and the high population growth and expansion of infrastructure over this time interval. Anticipated future growth in social and economic infrastructure in this area provides additional justification for this work.The residents of Kona have received little or no specific information about how to react to future volcanic eruptions or warnings, and short-term preparedness levels are low. Respondents appear uncertain about how to respond to threatening lava flows and overestimate the minimum time available to react, suggesting that personal risk levels are unnecessarily high. A successful volcanic warning plan in Kona must be tailored to meet the unique situation there.     

Quantification of Long-Range Persistence in Geophysical Time Series: Conventional and Benchmark-Based Improvement Techniques

Time series in the Earth Sciences are often characterized as self-affine long-range persistent, where the power spectral density, S, exhibits a power-law dependence on frequency, f, S(f) ~ f ^?β , with β the persistence strength. For modelling purposes, it is important to determine the strength of self-affine long-range persistence β as precisely as possible and to quantify the uncertainty of this estimate. After an extensive review and discussion of asymptotic and the more specific case of self-affine long-range persistence, we compare four common analysis techniques for quantifying self-affine long-range persistence: (a) rescaled range (R/S) analysis, (b) semivariogram analysis, (c) detrended fluctuation analysis, and (d) power spectral analysis. To evaluate these methods, we construct ensembles of synthetic self-affine noises and motions with different (1) time series lengths N = 64, 128, 256, …, 131,072, (2) modelled persistence strengths β _model = ?1.0, ?0.8, ?0.6, …, 4.0, and (3) one-point probability distributions (Gaussian, log-normal: coefficient of variation c _v = 0.0 to 2.0, Levy: tail parameter a = 1.0 to 2.0) and evaluate the four techniques by statistically comparing their performance. Over 17,000 sets of parameters are produced, each characterizing a given process; for each process type, 100 realizations are created. The four techniques give the following results in terms of systematic error (bias = average performance test results for β over 100 realizations minus modelled β) and random error (standard deviation of measured β over 100 realizations): (1) Hurst rescaled range (R/S) analysis is not recommended to use due to large systematic errors. (2) Semivariogram analysis shows no systematic errors but large random errors for self-affine noises with 1.2 ≤ β ≤ 2.8. (3) Detrended fluctuation analysis is well suited for time series with thin-tailed probability distributions and for persistence strengths of β ≥ 0.0. (4) Spectral techniques perform the best of all four techniques: for self-affine noises with positive persistence (β ≥ 0.0) and symmetric one-point distributions, they have no systematic errors and, compared to the other three techniques, small random errors; for anti-persistent self-affine noises (β < 0.0) and asymmetric one-point probability distributions, spectral techniques have small systematic and random errors. For quantifying the strength of long-range persistence of a time series, benchmark-based improvements to the estimator predicated on the performance for self-affine noises with the same time series length and one-point probability distribution are proposed. This scheme adjusts for the systematic errors of the considered technique and results in realistic 95 % confidence intervals for the estimated strength of persistence. We finish this paper by quantifying long-range persistence (and corresponding uncertainties) of three geophysical time series—palaeotemperature, river discharge, and Auroral electrojet index—with the three representing three different types of probability distribution—Gaussian, log-normal, and Levy, respectively.     

Cytochrome P4501A biomarker indication of the timeline of chronic exposure of Barrow's goldeneyes to residual Exxon Valdez oil

We examined hepatic EROD activity, as an indicator of CYP1A induction, in Barrow’s goldeneyes captured in areas oiled during the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill and those from nearby unoiled areas. We found that average EROD activity differed between areas during 2005, although the magnitude of the difference was reduced relative to a previous study from 1996/1997, and we found that areas did not differ by 2009. Similarly, we found that the proportion of individuals captured from oiled areas with elevated EROD activity (?2 times unoiled average) declined from 41% in winter 1996/1997 to 10% in 2005 and 15% in 2009. This work adds to a body of literature describing the timelines over which vertebrates were exposed to residual Exxon Valdez oil and indicates that, for Barrow’s goldeneyes in Prince William Sound, exposure persisted for many years with evidence of substantially reduced exposure by 2 decades after the spill.     

Comparison of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulation and downscaling of extreme precipitation events in a watershed

Future climate projections of Global Climate Models (GCMs) under different emission scenarios are usually used for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, the existing GCMs have only limited ability to simulate the complex and local climate features, such as precipitation. Furthermore, the outputs provided by GCMs are too coarse to be useful in hydrologic impact assessment models, as these models require information at much finer scales. Therefore, downscaling of GCM outputs is usually employed to provide fine-resolution information required for impact models. Among the downscaling techniques based on statistical principles, multiple regression and weather generator are considered to be more popular, as they are computationally less demanding than the other downscaling techniques. In the present study, the performances of a multiple regression model (called SDSM) and a weather generator (called LARS-WG) are evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the frequency of extreme precipitation events of current climate and downscaling of future extreme events. Areal average daily precipitation data of the Clutha watershed located in South Island, New Zealand, are used as baseline data in the analysis. Precipitation frequency analysis is performed by fitting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the observed, the SDSM simulated/downscaled, and the LARS-WG simulated/downscaled annual maximum (AM) series. The computations are performed for five return periods: 10-, 20-, 40-, 50- and 100-year. The present results illustrate that both models have similar and good ability to simulate the extreme precipitation events and, thus, can be adopted with confidence for climate change impact studies of this nature.