Contemporary ocean and coastal management issues in Australia and New Zealand: an overview

The past decade has witnessed an unprecedented increase in the number of international treaties, conventions and agreements dealing with maritime issues and oceans governance. Most nations are attempting to cope with this expanding agenda at a time of fiscal constraint, competing environmental demands and the emergence of a new global strategic, political and economic order. However, similar issues do not always lead to similar outcomes. Australia and New Zealand share some common oceanic and coastal management problems, but variations in response arise from geographical differences, constitutional provisions, political style and administrative arrangements. This paper provides a brief overview of contemporary maritime issues and attempted solutions in both nations.     

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.     

The “Shiva Hypothesis”: Impacts, mass extinctions, and the galaxy

The “Shiva Hypothesis”, in which recurrent, cyclical mass extinctions of life on Earth result from impacts of comets or asteroids, provides a possible unification of important processes in astrophysics, planetary geology, and the history of life. Collisions with Earth-crossing asteroids and comets ≥ a few km in diameter are calculated to produce widespread environmental disasters (dust clouds, wildfires), and occur with the proper frequency to account for the record of five major mass extinctions (from ≥ 10⁸ Mt TNT impacts) and ~ 20 minor mass extinctions (from 10⁷–10⁸ Mt impacts) recorded in the past 540 million years. Recent studies of a number of extinctions show evidence of severe environmental disturbances and mass mortality consistent with the expected after-effects (dust clouds, wildfires) of catastrophic impacts. At least six cases of features generally considered diagnostic of large impacts (e.g., large impact craters, layers with high platinum-group elements, shock-related minerals, and/or microtektites) are known at or close to extinction-event boundaries. Six additional cases of elevated iridium levels at or near extinction boundaries are of the amplitude that might be expected from collision of relatively low-Ir objects such as comets. The records of cratering and mass extinction show a correlation, and might be explained by a combination of periodic and stochastic impactors. The mass extinction record shows evidence for a periodic component of about 26 to 30 Myr, and an ~ 30 Myr periodic component has been detected in impact craters by some workers, with recent pulses of impacts in the last 2–3 million years, and at ~ 35, 65, and 95 million years ago. A cyclical astronomical pacemaker for such pulses of impacts may involve the motions of the Earth through the Milky Way Galaxy. As the Solar System revolves around the galactic center, it also oscillates up and down through the plane of the disk-shaped galaxy with a half-cycle ~ 30±3 Myr. This cycle should lead to quasi-periodic encounters with interstellar clouds, and periodic variations in the galactic tidal force with maxima at times of plane crossing. This “galactic carrousel” effect may provide a viable perturber of the Oort Cloud comets, producing periodic showers of comets in the inner Solar System. These impact pulses, along with stochastic impactors, may represent the major punctuations in earth history.     

Characterizing spatial and temporal variation in 18O and 2H content of New Zealand river water for better understanding of hydrologic processes

Time series of hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope ratios (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) in rivers can be used to quantify groundwater contributions to streamflow, and timescales of catchment storage. However, these isotope hydrology techniques rely on distinct spatial or temporal patterns of δ²H and δ¹⁸O within the hydrologic cycle. In New Zealand, lack of understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of δ²H and δ¹⁸O of river water hinders development of regional and national-scale hydrological models. We measured δ²H and δ¹⁸O monthly, together with river flow rates at 58 locations across New Zealand over a two-year period. Results show: (a) general patterns of decreasing δ²H and δ¹⁸O with increasing latitude were altered by New Zealand's major mountain ranges; δ²H and δ¹⁸O were distinctly lower in rivers fed from higher elevation catchments, and in eastern rain-shadow areas of both islands; (b) river water δ²H and δ¹⁸O values were partly controlled by local catchment characteristics (catchment slope, PET, catchment elevation, and upstream lake area) that influence evaporation processes; (c) regional differences in evaporation caused the slope of the river water line (i.e., the relationship between δ²H and δ¹⁸O in river water) for the (warmer) North Island to be lower than that of the (cooler, mountain-dominated) South Island; (d) δ²H seasonal offsets (i.e., the difference between seasonal peak and mean values) for individual sites ranged from 0.50‰ to 5.07‰. Peak values of δ¹⁸O and δ²H were in late summer, but values peaked 1 month later at the South Island sites, likely due to greater snow-melt contributions to streamflow. Strong spatial differences in river water δ²H and δ¹⁸O caused by orographic rainfall effects and evaporation may inform studies of water mixing across landscapes. Generally distinct seasonal isotope cycles, despite the large catchment sizes of rivers studied, are encouraging for transit time analysis applications.     

Error analyses of resonant orbits for geodesy

An error analysis of resonant orbits for geodesy indicates that attempts to use resonance to recover high order geopotential coefficients may be seriously hampered by errors in the geopotential. This effect, plus the very high correlations (up to .99) of the resonant coefficients with each other and the orbital period in single satellite solutions, makesindividual resonant orbits of limited value for geodesy. Multiple-satellite, single-plane solutions are only a slight improvement over the single satellite case. Accurate determination of high order coefficients from low altitude resonant satellites requires multiple orbit planes and small drift-periods to reduce correlations and effects of errors of non-resonant geopotential terms. Also, the effects of gravity model errors on low-altitude resonant satellites make the use of tracking arcs exceeding two to three weeks of doubtful validity. Because high-altitude resonant orbits are less affected by non-resonant terms in the geopotential, much longer tracking arcs can be used for them.     

Analysis of groundwater quality using water quality index and conventional graphical methods: the Volta region,Ghana

Conventional graphical and statistical methods were used with water quality indices to characterize the hydrochemistry of groundwater from the northern part of the Volta region of Ghana. The objective was to determine the processes that affect the hydrochemistry and the variation of these processes in space among the three main geological terrains: the Buem formation, Voltaian System and the Togo series that underlie the area, and to determine the suitability of groundwater from the area for drinking purposes. The Q-mode cluster analysis reveals three main water groups. The groups established from the Q-mode HCA appear to indicate different degrees of weathering which could further indicate varying levels of fracturing aquifer hydraulic properties. R-mode HCA and factor analysis (using varimax rotation and Kaiser Criterion) were then applied to determine the significant sources of variation in the hydrochemistry. This study finds that groundwater hydrochemistry in the area is controlled by the weathering of silicate and carbonate minerals, as well as the chemistry of infiltrating precipitation. Mineral activity diagrams for the CaO–Na₂O–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O and CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O systems plotted for the area indicate stability in the smectite field and attribute hydrochemistry to the weathering of silicate minerals. Silicate mineral weathering and the effects of precipitation appear to be pervasive among all the three main geological terrains, whereas carbonate weathering is localized among the Voltaian aquifers. Cation exchange does not appear to play a significant role in the hydrochemistry but mild Water quality indices (WQI) were calculated for the samples using the concentrations of Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl⁻, NO₃ ⁻, F⁻, and EC at the various sample locations. The WQI values indicate that groundwater from the study area is of excellent quality for drinking purposes. WQI values from groundwater samples are averagely higher than samples taken from surface water sources in the area. This implies that geology has had an impact on the WQI of groundwater in the area.     

Global climatic change – the latest scientific understanding

IPCCs statement in its 1995 report (IPCC 1996) that a human influence was discernible in global climate has been widely quoted but often misunderstood. The character of the evidence underpinning this detection statement is explained so that its strengths and weaknesses can be better understood and the subtleties of its message better appreciated. To demonstrate the close linkage between the government-approved summary and the underlying chapters of the IPCC report the detailed evolution of the detection statement from first draft through to the form finally approved by the IPCC is described.     

Experimental calibration of oxygen isotope fractionation between quartz and zircon

We report the results of an experimental calibration of oxygen isotope fractionation between quartz and zircon. Data were collected from 700 to 1000 °C, 10–20 kbar, and in some experiments the oxygen fugacity was buffered at the fayalite–magnetite–quartz equilibrium. Oxygen isotope fractionation shows no clear dependence on oxygen fugacity or pressure. Unexpectedly, some high-temperature data (900–1000 °C) show evidence for disequilibrium oxygen isotope partitioning. This is based in part on ion microprobe data from these samples that indicate some high-temperature quartz grains may be isotopically zoned. Excluding data that probably represent non-equilibrium conditions, our preferred calibration for oxygen isotope fractionation between quartz and zircon can be described by:

This relationship can be used to calculate fractionation factors between zircon and other minerals. In addition, results have been used to calculate WR/melt–zircon fractionations during magma differentiation. Modeling demonstrates that silicic magmas show relatively small changes in δ¹⁸O values during differentiation, though late-stage mafic residuals capable of zircon saturation contain elevated δ¹⁸O values. However, residuals also have larger predicted melt–zircon fractionations meaning zircons will not record enriched δ¹⁸O values generally attributed to a granitic protolith. These results agree with data from natural samples if the zircon fractionation factor presented here or from natural studies is applied.     

Fluids in the lithosphere, 2. Experimental constraints on CO2 transport in dunite and quartzite at elevated P-T conditions with implications for mantle and crustal decarbonation processes

In a series of experiments at 0.5–1.3 GPa and 1050–1200°C we have monitored the transport, via crack propagation, of CO₂ into well-annealed olivine and quartz aggregates. The objectives were to determine (1) the extent and rate of fluid penetration; (2) the effect of varying both P-T conditions and microstructure; and (3) the fluid penetration pathways. Experiments on CO₂ penetration into dunite annealed in the absence of MgO indicate rapid and pervasive fluid transport on a grain-dimension scale, but a limited penetration distance ( 1 mm). Additional experiments on dunite annealed in the presence of MgO (either dispersed or present at both ends), however, resulted in CO₂ penetration that was both pervasive on the scale of individual grains and almost always completely through the 5 mm long samples. The abundance of fine (10 μm) grains in the MgO-free dunite, in contrast to the much larger grain sizes of the samples annealed with MgO present, suggests the difference in fluid penetration behavior may arise because the strength variation in dunite scales with the grain size. Effects arising from changes in olivine point defect chemistry, however, are an additional possibility. The response of synthetic quartzite to CO₂ overpressure is distinct from that of dunite: Quartzite experiences rapid and complete penetration of CO₂, via a macroscopically visible system of transgranular fractures, over the range of P-T conditions investigated.The small amount of porosity ( 2–3%) present in most rock samples fabricated for this study, lacks three-dimensional connectivity, thus precluding any enhanced fluid penetration via porous flow. Pores could possibly enhance fluid penetration as the result of a small reduction in resistance to fracture, but the probable abundance of strength-controlling flaws in natural rocks is likely to produce similar behavior.The results of our experiments on olivine and olivine + MgO suggest that the transport of pressurized CO₂ in very olivine-rich mantle environments will be pervasive on the scale of individual grains and its extent may be dependent on rock microstructure and/or crystal chemical effects. Such pervasive fluid transport, perhaps associated with magma decarbonation, may have interesting implications for both magma transport and local LREE enrichment of adjacent mantle wall-rock. The ease with which quartzite is penetrated by CO₂ at the conditions of our experiments underscores the possible role of decarbonation reactions in crustal permeability-enhancement processes.