Methods of fitting the Fisher-Tippett type 1 extreme value distribution

Methods are described for estimating the parameters of the Fisher-Tippet Type 1 extreme value distribution and associated return values from measured extremes, such as maximum wave height. A comparison of these methods, with simulated data, shows that those using Gumbel's plotting position are least satifactory. Maximum likelihood methods give the smallest mean square errors, but the very much simpler method of moments is nearly as good.     

The evolution of isolated vortices interacted with steep slope

Numerical solutions are examined for isolated, intense vortices as influenced by western bounding bottom topography through the use of a rigid-lid, two-layer primitive -plane numerical model. Systematic studies are made of the sense of rotation (cyclonic/anticyclonic), the consequence of varying the gradient of bottom slope, and the different vertical shear in a two layer ocean. In the basin with a bottom slope, the nearly barotropic anticyclonic vortex forms a modon-like vortex for S with fixedRo ₂<O(1) (where is the ratio between the variation of the Coriolis parameter across the eddy to the Coriolis parameter in the center, S the topographic effect and,Ro ₂ the Rossby number in the lower layer) and its generation is due to a compound effect of the planetary beta, topographic beta, avvection, and mirror image. The formation of the modon-like vortex and the propagation of the original vortex onto the bottom slope depends on the strength of slope gradient and the baroclinicity of the vortex. The nearly barotropic anticyclonic vortex evolves into the stronger upper ocean one with increasing S: the gradient of the bottom slope becomes steeper. Then the original vortex lives longer because the barotropic component of the energy is converted to the baroclinic one and it moves toward southeast in forming a modon-like vortex in the lower layer. The evolution of a vortex in the model results are compared to observational results of a Kuroshio warm core ring (KWCR) obtained from hydrographic data (June, 1985) and from NOAA satellite infrared images (April, 1985 to July, 1985). It is shown that a KWCR (June, 1985) is influenced by the western continental slope/shelf of the East Japan.     

Characterization of Estuarine Marine Clays for Coastal Reclamation in Pusan, Korea

Large scale reclamation works in coastal areas of the Nakdong River plain are at various stages of progress, since early 1990's on in-situ soft marine clay deposits. These deposits are of the order of 30 to 40 m thick. A realistic rapid characterization of soft ground would ensure success of any reclamation work in this area. In order to cope with the work carried out with different agencies, it is desirable to evolve a systematic methodology. In this study, engineering properties of clays at three coastal areas, Gadukdo, Noksan and Shinho, have been generated. The analysis of data has been done within the framework of classical developments in soil mechanics. Analysis has also been made by making use of the recent developments in dealing with soft clays. The dominant factors, namely, stress, time, and environment influencing the response of clay to loading are identified.     

Changes in the hydrography of Central California waters associated with the 1997–98 El Niño

Oceanographic conditions off Central California were monitored by means of a series of 13 hydrographic cruises between February 1997 and January 1999, which measured water properties along an oceanographic section perpendicular to the California Coast. The 1997–98 El Niño event was defined by higher than normal sea levels at Monterey, which began in June 1997, peaked in November 1997, and returned to normal in March 1998. The warming took place in two distinct periods. During June and July 1997, the sea level increased as a result of stronger than normal coastal warming below 200 dbars and within 100 km of the coast, which was associated with poleward flow of saltier waters. During this period, deeper (400–1000 dbar) waters between 150–200 km from shore were also warmed and became more saline. Subsequently, sea level continued to rise through January 1998, mostly as a result of the warming above 200 dbars although, after a brief period of cooling in September 1997, waters below 200 dbar were also warmer than normal during this period. This winter warm anomaly was also coastally trapped, extending 200 km from shore and was accompanied by cooler and fresher water in the offshore California current. In March and April 1998, sea level dropped quickly to normal levels and inshore waters were fresher and warmer than the previous spring and flowed southward.The warming was consistent with equatorial forcing of Central California waters via propagation of Kelvin or coastally-trapped waves. The observed change in heat content associated with the 1997–98 El Niño was the same as that observed during the previous seasonal cycle. The warming and freshening events were similar to events observed during the 1957–58 and 1982–83 El Niños.     

Volcanogenic complexes of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan (Comparative analysis)

Several coeval volcanogenic complexes indicating synchronous volcanic events in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk are defined. Volcanics from different-age complexes of the Sea of Okhotsk show many features in common and are attributed to the Pacific type of calc-alkaline series. They were formed in geodynamic settings of the active continental margin and point to its origination on the continental crust of the fragmented Asian continent margin. The volcanic rocks developed in the Sea of Japan reflect different rifting stages. The initial stage was marked by an eruption of calc-alkaline lavas (Paleocene-Eocene complex). At the stage of the marginal-sea spreading, erupted volcanics of the middle Miocene-Pliocene complex were melted from the depleted mantle and magmatism terminated by an eruption of postspreading Pliocene-Holocene volcanics melted from the enriched mantle EM I. Along with the differences, the magmatism in the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk has some features in common. In both cases, the sialic component of the lithosphere substantially influenced the magma generation.     

The dimensions of sand ripples in full-scale oscillatory flows

New large-scale experiments have been carried out in two oscillatory flow tunnels to study ripple regime sand suspension and net sand transport processes in full-scale oscillatory flows. The paper focuses on ripple dimensions and the new data are combined with existing data to make a large dataset of ripple heights and lengths for flows with field-scale amplitudes and periods. A feature of the new experiments is a focus on the effect of flow irregularity. The combined dataset is analysed to examine the range of hydraulic conditions under which oscillatory flow ripples occur, to examine the effects of flow irregularity and ripple three-dimensionality on ripple dimensions and to test and improve existing methods for predicting ripple dimensions.The following are the main conclusions. (1) The highest velocities in a flow time-series play an important role in determining the type of bedform occurring in oscillatory flow. Bedform regime is well characterised by mobility number based on maximum velocity in the case of regular flow and based on the mean of the highest one tenth peak velocities in the case of irregular flow. (2) For field-scale flows, sand size is the primary factor determining whether equilibrium ripples will be 2D or 3D. 2D ripples occur when the sand D₅₀ ≥ 0.30 mm and 3D ripples occur when D₅₀ ≤ 0.22 mm (except when the flow orbital diameter is low). (3) Ripple type (2D or 3D) is the same for regular and irregular flows and ripple dimensions produced by equivalent regular and irregular flows follow a similar functional dependence on mobility number, with mobility number based on maximum velocity in the case of regular flow and based on the mean of the highest one tenth velocities in the case of irregular flow. For much of the ripple regime, ripple dimensions have weak dependency on mobility number and ripple dimensions are similar for regular and irregular flows with the same flow orbital amplitude. However, differences in ripples produced by equivalent regular and irregular flows become significant at the high mobility end of the ripple regime. (4) Ripple dimensions predicted using the Wiberg and Harris formulae are in poor agreement with measured ripple dimensions from the large-scale experiments. Predictions based on the Mogridge et al. and the Nielsen formulae show better overall agreement with the data but also show systematic differences in cases of 3D ripples and ripples generated by irregular flows. (5) Based on the combined large-scale data, modifications to the Nielsen ripple dimension equations are proposed for the heights and lengths of 2D ripples. The same equations apply to regular and irregular flows, but with mobility number appropriately defined. 3D ripples are generally smaller than 2D ripples and estimates of 3D ripple height and length may be obtained by applying multipliers of 0.55 and 0.73 respectively to the 2D formulae. The proposed modified Nielsen formulae provide an improved fit to the large-scale data, accounting for flow irregularity and ripple three-dimensionality.     

Parameter sensitivity of three Kalman filter schemes for assimilation of water levels in shelf sea models

In applications of data assimilation algorithms, a number of poorly known assimilation parameters usually need to be specified. Hence, the documented success of data assimilation methodologies must rely on a moderate sensitivity to these parameters. This contribution presents a parameter sensitivity study of three well known Kalman filter approaches for the assimilation of water levels in a three dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system. The filters considered are the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the reduced rank square root Kalman filter (RRSQRT) and the steady Kalman filter. A sensitivity analysis of key parameters in the schemes is undertaken for a setup in an idealised bay. The sensitivity of the resulting root mean square error (RMSE) is shown to be low to moderate. Hence the schemes are robust within an acceptable range and their application even with misspecified parameters is to be encouraged in this perspective. However, the predicted uncertainty of the assimilation results are sensitive to the parameters and hence must be applied with care. The sensitivity study further demonstrates the effectiveness of the steady Kalman filter in the given system as well as the great impact of assimilating even very few measurements.     

Seasonal dynamics in pelagic fish abundance in a Baltic Sea coastal area

The spring-spawning Baltic Sea herring spawn in coastal areas that also serve as nursery areas for the young fish during their first summer. In a bay known as a herring spawning and nursery area, the pelagic fish abundance was quantified using hydroacoustics every second week from late spring to autumn in 2000 and 2001. A dense system of survey transects allowed determination of the acoustic index (the nautical area scattering coefficient) for fish abundance with high precision. The variation, expressed as the geostatistical coefficient of variation, was on average 5% both years and ranged from 3–11% (2000) and 3–8% (2001). Through the hydroacoustic data intra-annual dynamics in acoustic fish abundance, densities and size composition could be followed, which showed similar trends in both years. In spring and early summer acoustic fish densities were low, followed by a drastic, 20-fold increase in late summer. Hydroacoustic data and biological samples suggest that the increase was caused mainly by the recruitment of young-of-the-year herring to the acoustically assessable pelagic fish community. This age class is commonly not well represented in catches when using traditional sampling gears such as gill nets and trawls, and hydroacoustics may help to improve quantitative estimates of small juvenile fish in order to increase the understanding of biological processes in coastal nursery areas.