Petrology and trace element geochemistry of Tissint,the newest shergottite fall

The fall and recovery of the Tissint meteorite in 2011 created a rare opportunity to examine a Martian sample with a known, short residence time on Earth. Tissint is an olivine‐phyric shergottite that accumulated olivine antecrysts within a single magmatic system. Coarse olivine grains with nearly homogeneous cores of Mg# >80 suggest slow re‐equilibration. Many macroscopic features of this sample resemble those of LAR 06319, including the olivine crystal size distribution and the presence of evolved oxide and olivine compositions. Unlike LAR 06319, however, no magmatic hydrous phases were found in the analyzed samples of Tissint. Minor and trace element compositions indicate that the meteorite is the product of closed‐system crystallization from a parent melt derived from a depleted source, with no obvious addition of a LREE‐rich (crustal?) component prior to or during crystallization. The whole‐rock REE pattern is similar to that of intermediate olivine‐phyric shergottite EETA 79001 lithology A, and could also be approximated by a more olivine‐rich version of depleted basaltic shergottite QUE 94201. Magmatic oxygen fugacities are at the low end of the shergottite range, with log fO₂ of QFM‐3.5 to ‐4.0 estimated based on early‐crystallized minerals and QFM‐2.4 estimated based on the Eu in pyroxene oxybarometer. These values are similarly comparable to other depleted shergottites, including SaU 005 and QUE 94201. Tissint occupies a previously unsampled niche in shergottite chemistry: containing olivines with Mg# >80, resembling the enriched olivine‐phyric shergottite LAR 06319 in its crystallization path, and comparable to intermediate olivine‐phyric shergottite EETA 79001A, depleted olivine‐phyric shergottite DaG 476, and depleted basaltic shergottite QUE 94201 in its trace element abundances and oxygen fugacity. The apparent absence of evidence for terrestrial alteration in Tissint (particularly in trace element abundances in the whole‐rock and individual minerals) confirms that exposure to the arid desert environment results in only minimal weathering of samples, provided the exposure times are brief.     

Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations

Climate Dynamics - Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the total global warming caused by an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial level in a climate system....     

A spar buoy design for oceanographic data telemetry

Abstract

The design of a spar buoy, employed as one component of a current monitoring system deployed during 1980 in Davis Strait, and some of its response characteristics to ocean waves are presented. The buoy was 36.5 ft (11.13 m) in length with upper and lower masts 0.5ft (15.2 cm) in diameter and buoyancy hulls, centrally located, 2 ft (61.0 cm) in diameter. Power for the system was supplied from lead‐acid batteries in a ballast tank on the lower end. Telemetry electronics were located in a 1‐ft (30.5‐cm) diameter case on the upper end, below the antenna. The buoy weighed about 1,635 lb (746kg) and could be man‐handled at sea with relatively light lifting equipment. It had a damped period of 16s and a significant heave response of about 62% of the significant wave height of the forcing spectrum. Scale model tests indicated that the buoy would be operational in heavy sea swell up to about 20ft in height with pitching angles of less than 10° off vertical. Observations at sea have shown that the buoy followed swell waves better than the 62% heave response figure would imply and had negligible pitching motions except during severe storms. The design was judged to be successful in providing a stable base for VHF transmission and is recommended for use in other applications.     

Geometric consistency for regression model estimation and testing in climatology and meteorology

Abstract

The effects of outliers on linear regression are examined. The sensitivity of classical least‐squares (LS) procedures to outliers is shown to be associated with the geometric inconsistency between the data space and the analysis space. This is illustrated for both estimation and inference. A geometrically consistent procedure based on the Euclidean distance is proposed. This procedure involves the least absolute deviation (LAD) regression and a new permutation test for matched pairs (PTMP). Comparisons made with LS techniques demonstrate that the proposed procedure is more resistant to the existence of outliers in the data set and leads to more intuitive results. Applications and illustrations using meteorological and climatological data are also discussed.     

The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Climate change in arid lands and Native American socioeconomic vulnerability: The case of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe

The case of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe exemplifies tribal vulnerabilities as a result of climate change. Preliminary socio-economic data and analysis reveal that the tribe’s vulnerability to climate change is related to cultural and economic dependence on Pyramid Lake, while external socio-economic vulnerability factors influence adaptive capacity and amplify potential impacts. Reduced water supplies as a consequence of climate change would result in a compounded reduction of inflows to Pyramid Lake, thus potentially impacting the spawning and sustenance of a cultural livelihood, the endangered cui-ui fish (Chasmistes cujus). Meanwhile, limited economic opportunities and dwindling federal support constrain tribal adaptive capacity. Factors that contribute to tribal adaptive capacity include: sustainability-based values, technical capacity for natural resource management, proactive initiatives for the control of invasive-species, strong external scientific networks, and remarkable tribal awareness of climate change.     

Aerial and acoustic marine mammal detection and localization on navy ranges

Acoustic monitoring and aerial visual surveys of marine mammal activity were conducted simultaneously at the Navy's Pacific Missile Range Facility near Kauai, HI, during times of both high- and low-whale density from February 2002 to March 2003. Specifically, recordings from the range's 24 broadband hydrophones were made during 11 of 16 "in-season" and during six of ten "off-season" aerial surveys. Basic acoustic detections consisted primarily of humpback whale calls and sperm-whale clicks, and those two species were also reported in the visual surveys. The relative number of acoustic detections roughly corresponded with the visual survey results throughout the year. The same acoustic data were also provided to a passive-acoustic-localization algorithm based on acoustic propagation models which generated estimates of sperm-whale movement through the range. The acoustic localizations are in close proximity in space and time to the visual observations of sperm whales. Verification of the model-based localization algorithm's accuracy was demonstrated in a controlled-source experiment at the Navy's Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center (AUTEC) range in the Bahamas where the recordings of sperm-whale clicks were broadcast and successfully tracked. The localization accuracy of the model-based technique and traditional hyperbolic techniques is compared. These results raise the possibility of using existing Navy assets to detect and track marine mammals, particularly during times when visual sighting conditions are not favorable, in efforts to minimize their exposure to underwater sound.